Interview “Nobody listened to us”: Geophysics expert laments culture of neglect, warns quakes…
January 11, 2025
Professor Atalay Ayele is the Director of the Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy at Addis Ababa University. Holding a postgraduate degree in Seismology from Sweden’s Uppsala University, Atalay is one of the foremost geophysics experts in the country. He has spent much of his three decades in research focused on seismic activity in the East African Rift system in general, and the Ethiopian rifts in particular.
The Professor and the Institute he leads have come under the media spotlight in recent months as a long-running series of earthquakes rocks Fentale, Dofen, and the surrounding areas, with tremors often felt all the way in Addis Ababa.
Atalay and his team of experts have been warning of the impending seismic activity and its potentially disastrous effects since as far back as 10 years ago, but neither the public nor the government had paid attention to the alarm until recently.
The Reporter caught up with the Professor to get a better idea of what exactly is going on in Awash and what the earthquakes mean for the rest of the country. Atalay spoke about the danger to the country’s most important trade route and its largest city, as well as the implications of weak building code enforcement and a dangerous government culture of ignoring scientific research. Read more about his analysis of the recent seismic activity, recommendations for public safety, and critiques of a society and government that do not value the efforts and sacrifices of scientific researchers:
The Reporter: Public opinion on the recent seismic activity is split. Some see it as divine punishment, while others recognize it as a natural phenomenon. Which is it?
Professor Atalay Ayele: Now you’re taking me towards religious matters. It is a natural phenomenon that occurs once in a while. It is not something to be solved through prayer alone. The earthquakes might be a new phenomenon to the public, but not to us. We have long been recording and reporting similar phenomena in the same area where they are occurring now. However, before this, the public and the government were not paying attention to the reports. Now, since the intensity of the earthquakes has grown, everybody is concerned. But it has been happening for a long time. It has always been there.
Ethiopia is among the countries that lie along the Rift Valley, so the phenomenon is expected, scientifically. The only issue is about preparedness based on scientific fact, and saving lives and property from damage.
The public has been unsettled by the earthquakes. How can people be persuaded to remain calm?
Generally, this is not a new thing. For instance, in 2015, we registered several earthquakes in the same region. It is happening again, but lately the quakes have been growing stronger and more frequent. Most of them arise in the area between Fentale and Dofen, though some occur in other nearby areas.
In our reports from 2015, we said [the seismic activity] was an alarm bell for Ethiopia. We urged the government to take the necessary precautions and preparations for earthquakes in this area. We also recommended it to find alternative routes for the Ethio-Djibouti trade route, which passes through the Fentale and Metehara area. This route is the backbone of Ethiopia’s international trade and economy.
We warned the government to find an alternative route to Djibouti. The paper and report was published, but no government body considered the recommendations or undertook early preparations. Whenever we discover these kinds of scientific facts, we publish them, and organize conferences and discussions. But even the media is not interested in hearing about our discoveries. There are no channels to directly present them to government decision makers. When we organize workshops and invite officials to attend, they do not come; even to make the opening remarks. Government officials have no curiosity about scientific issues.
Similar natural disasters have recently claimed many lives in countries like China and India. Tibet was recently hit by an earthquake. Why do you think Ethiopia failed to draw lessons from these countries and events?
Unless a government relies on its own institutions, and unless decision makers listen to input from academics, expert recommendations cannot be useful.
What causes earthquakes?
Around 250 million years ago, all of the continents that we know today were part of a single continent called Pangea. However, due to strong tectonic plate activity and fissures, these land masses detached from one another and created what we see today. The movement of these land masses and tectonic plates, and the movement of magma underground, creates earthquakes.
The map of Pangea is projected based on simulations and evidence from these continents. For instance, South America was attached to Africa 250 million years ago. This has also been confirmed by studying plant and animal morphology on the two continents, which are similar. The Middle East was attached to the Horn of Africa. India and Madagascar were also attached to Africa. When India detached, drifted away, and attached to the Asian continent, the crash of the land masses created a folding. It is that folding that created the Himalayas.
In general, the earth is continuously subject to this kind of dynamism and morphology. Land masses might detach, overlap, smash into one another, or have other interactions.
In Tibet, it folded-up and created mountains. In Turkey, two land masses overlapped, creating Anatolia. In different continents, there are different kinds of movements. Such movements create energy underground, from the friction. For instance, in the East African Rift Valley, energy is being created 10 kilometers deep. The energy accumulates, and when it grows beyond the capacity of the land mass, it bursts out, creating a slide or quake. The wave of energy becomes the wave of the earthquake.
What we are seeing around Fentale is a sliding of land masses due to the energy underneath. The waves of energy reach all the way to Addis Ababa, like the ripples made when a stone is thrown into a body of still water.
We see the public’s curiosity as a very good thing. At least the public and the government are now paying attention to what has been happening. Nobody listened when we were reporting this for years, but today, people are seeing for themselves. At least they can take precautions.
Nobody listened to us before. The public and government did not believe that a natural event like this could take place in our country. They did not believe our reports. Now they see it. Now everybody is awake, and ready to make preparations.
A substantial portion of Ethiopia’s GDP is in Addis Ababa. What would happen if a bigger earthquake takes place and destroys all of it? The government is currently investing billions on corridor development projects, but any amount of damage can happen in two seconds. Is the government considering the potential for natural disasters? Is the government listening to scientific recommendations?
Turkiye is thought to have strong infrastructure but it was destroyed by a recent natural disaster. Is Ethiopia’s infrastructure built with earthquakes and other natural disasters in mind? Are strong construction codes enforced? For instance, CBE [Commercial Bank of Ethiopia] was reportedly unable to get insurance coverage for its headquarters due to the sensitivity of the land it is located on. Are our properties safer? To what extent can they tolerate such disasters?
Ethiopian contractors are not tested, not filtered. All contractors are considered equal. For instance, let us say a strong natural disaster happened, we could have seen which contractors’ buildings survive, and which contractors’ work crumbles. Everybody claims to be a contractor and does whatever they like.
Ethiopia’s construction quality is not so bad. Some countries do not have building codes at all. Ethiopia has had building codes for the past three generations, though they have not been enforced. It could spell serious destruction if a worse disaster were to occur.
Even now, when we say in the media that buildings and property can be damaged, a lot of people, social media leaders, public figures, and commentators make fun of us. Everyone thinks nothing can happen to Addis Ababa. These people are misleading the public and hindering precautionary measures. Everything we said would happen is happening.
There is a lot of panic. But are we taking precautions and making preparations in case something worse takes place? I don’t think so.
The earthquakes have recently surged past the 5.0 magnitude threshold. How much worse do you think they can get?
The magnitude alone does not determine the level of destruction. Risk is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The hazard in this case is the earthquakes. Vulnerability is concerned with the level of safety measures contractors put in place during construction. Exposure relates to each city, town, and village’s preparation.
For instance, a 3.8 magnitude quake is very minor. But if vulnerability is high, the damage would be catastrophic. Imagine what happened in Fentale taking place in Addis Ababa.
Will the earthquakes and eruptions stop? When?
When the energy underneath Fentale, Dofen and the surrounding area has burst and the land is relieved, then it will stop. We cannot say when it will stop at this time because it is difficult to measure the level of energy.
Three tectonic plates—Nubian, Arabian and Somali—are moving apart. Is it possible to predict what will happen to the Horn of Africa in the future?
The tectonic interactions and movements will continue.
Will the Horn of Africa split off from the continent in the future? When will this happen?
The Rift Valley passes through the Horn of Africa. The Horn is divided into lowlands and highlands. This is not something created by engineers; It was created by natural forces.
People on social media are saying the Horn will split from the rest of Africa and the Red Sea will soon be at Ethiopia’s door. This will happen, at the earliest, one million years from now.
The Horn will split bit by bit from the main African continent. The signs are already there that the land mass is cracking. The simulations also indicate it will happen. But that detachment will happen a million years into the future. Why should we worry about something that will happen a million years from now?
Fentale and Dofen have so far been the center of the earthquakes. Can this shift towards other parts of Ethiopia, such as Addis Ababa?
It can.
Why has it been focused on Fentale so far?
Fentale is an active volcanic area. Some say it is dormant but that is incorrect. The government recently built a lodge on Beseka Lake. Such investments in the area will be affected by the rift dynamisms, in the next three or four years. The earth dynamics in that area are changing very fast. To make it worse, the government also relocated the Ethio-Djibouti road and railway to the route nearest the volcano.
Any development activity, unless it is supported with scientific facts, cannot sustain. Before spending any taxpayer’s hard-earned money, the government should listen to the scientific facts. Is it feasible? What are the risks? This must be answered first. For instance, due to water flowing to the earth’s surface following the earthquakes, the recent project in Beseka will be filled with water in a few years.
Metehara also needs to be relocated. Lake Beseka has been growing in volume in recent years, at a speed that is frightening. It is close to flooding Metehara now.
There are videos circulating online depicting explosions of steam, mud, and, in some cases, lava. What kind of volcanic eruptions can we expect going forward?
There have not been any lava eruptions so far. There have been eruptions of water and soil. There is very hot magma moving underground. When groundwater nears the magma, it gets hot and erupts.
Is there a probability for a large volcanic eruption in Fentale or its surroundings?
We cannot predict exactly.
When a volcano happens, the smell of the environment changes; the air smells different. There are signs that can indicate that a big volcano might erupt. That is why we are urging the government to constantly follow up and look for such signs in the areas.
Does Ethiopia have the capacity to respond to a serious natural disaster? In terms of institutional capacity, resources, manpower, and preparation?
Preparation and capacity are insufficient. The Ethiopian National Disaster Risk Management Commission, first of all, changes its name often. Secondly, it does not have sufficient capacity. It usually raises funds from NGOs, I think due to budget constraints.
The government should design a proper institutional arrangement, and allocate an adequate budget every year. A standby force should be trained and kept ready to respond to any kind of disaster at all times. This requires scientific studies to be undertaken first to assess disaster prone areas. Then early warning systems must be put in place, and the standby force must be proactive.
The Commission is relocating people in Fentale and its surroundings. What do you make of this?
Relocation should not be arbitrary. People should not be separated from their property and livelihoods unless it is as a last resort. Are there facilities and humanitarian assistance prepared in the places where these people are being relocated to? Is the displacement being done based on studies?
Did the Commission reach out to you to determine which areas should be evacuated?
First, the Commission’s team should be on the ground, conducting a survey to determine which areas should be relocated first. But caution is necessary. In some areas, local people are over-emphasizing. For instance, the land just opened up and swallowed two camels, they claim. But they do not provide any evidence as to where the camels reportedly died. The Commission’s experts need to identify whose property has been destroyed by the earthquakes, and collect evidence for this.
Otherwise, relocating 80,000 people without sufficient reason or facilities will only cause another disaster. Are there resources to feed and shelter all these people?
Does Ethiopia have a disaster response policy?
Policy is mandatory. The Deputy PM is, I think, mandated with disaster response at the national level. but we often do not see what the government is doing. It is not sufficient.
Will the scope of the earthquakes expand beyond Fentale?
The scope remains contained in that area.
What should people in Addis Ababa do?
Some people think the land will open up and swallow everything. That is wrong. There is no need to panic. During an earthquake, if you are on the ground, nothing will happen to you. The problem is if you are in a building, under a building or under trees.
Should people brace and take cover under tables, like the safety measures on an airplane?
Yes. Especially if inside a building. Taking cover under a table protects your head from falling objects. Covering the head and neck is advised. Using the stairs during a quake is not advised. Once a wave is over, you should exit the building.
How do you evaluate the level of government willingness to accept scientific recommendations and implement them?
Unfortunately, the government prefers blaming the academicians and scientific community, instead of accepting their recommendations. A lot of valuable research papers are conducted and shelved. Many blame the academicians for doing research that always ends up on shelves, in the dust.
Academicians organize conferences, summits and discussion events. Researchers present summarized results. When we invite government officials to such events, they do not even come to open the ceremony. Even if they come, they do not stay.. No government official is ready to listen to research findings.
So, how can scientific facts become policy inputs?
But the government always blames universities. Everyone thinks research and university work is all about ‘splitting hairs.’
Our papers and reports in 2015 clearly warned of the earthquakes, and clearly recommended that the Ethio-Djibouti trade route and our transport corridors need to be revisited. The paper was published and presented at workshops. But the government system, from top to bottom, has no interest in listening. The government does not have an ear even for breakthrough research. This is a very dangerous culture.
If we do not use our research and our educated manpower, why does the nation need to educate its citizens?
Plus, our researchers and educated people should not be worrying about their livelihoods while conducting relevant research. Most people in school today dream of going to America when they graduate. They do not dream of working and being respected in their own country. They listen to peer pressure rather than what their teachers teach them.
Informed decisions cannot be made without first valuing science.
Do Ethiopian higher learning institutions produce policy recommendations and forward them to the media? They often publish them online, but is that enough?
We do press releases when there are findings. But no media house sends journalists to cover events regarding scientific findings. No officials come to attend. The universities also have no resources to organize events at hotels, and allocate per diems for participants.
Ethiopia has natural gas reserves in Ogaden. The recent seismic activity indicates huge potential in geothermal energy. Will the earthquakes alter Ethiopia’s natural resources? Will they affect natural gas deposits?
There will be no significant change. Just like everyone, we hear Ethiopia has natural gas at Ogaden. The officials say so. In fact, that was first said during the Derg regime. Nothing will happen because Ogaden is far from the epicenter of the current earthquakes.
Regarding geothermal, too, nobody studied it. But now, following the earthquakes, we are seeing Ethiopia has huge potential. Hot water is sprouting everywhere. If it is well studied, and the geothermal plant is erected in a stable area, the hot water can rotate turbines and easily generate electricity. But it should be planted in a stable place, where the earthquake can not affect it. This can be done based on study.
To generate geothermal energy, the hot water outflow must be permanent. It must be located in an area where water goes down, contacts the heat, and sprouts back out. We are now discovering resources incidentally. If we could do further studies, there could be huge geothermal potential.
Government officials have been busy with party meetings or inaugurating projects in the time since the earthquakes began to escalate. State-run media has also paid little attention to the phenomenon. Is this due to a lack of understanding or a bid to divert attention?
It is the absence of prioritization. Of course, social media has already over-fanned the earthquake issue. However, the public has the right to know the truth from the government. It is taxpayer money that runs EBC or any other state media. Anytime such disasters happen, the government and the state media have a duty to properly notify the public.
There are some dam projects in the vicinity, including part of the Kessem sugar project. How will they be affected?
There are some impacts but there has been no significant damage to the projects in the vicinity, including Kessem. But it requires a damage assessment report.
What are your short and long-term recommendations?
The government should follow the developments closely and inform the public constantly. Government decisions must be based on scientific facts and surveys.
For the long term, it is essential to identify which parts of the country are prone to natural disasters, and how it affects our economic corridors and projects. Research must be conducted, manpower must be prepared, equipment and technological applications must be acquired, lessons must be taken from other countries, and everything must be ready.
Do researchers have sufficient technology and equipment?
The equipment and technologies we are using to collect earthquake data, as well as in other fields, are sourced from foreign support. We acquired them through the individual efforts of researchers in this department. We often write proposals asking for support from foreign donors and research institutions. Almost all the equipment and technology we use to collect earthquake data was acquired through individual efforts and support from foreigners. Only one station is financed by the government.
There is no government body allocating a budget for the procurement of equipment and technology for our research. For the last 15 years, we’ve been doing it on our own. The Swedish international science program, and others, have helped us a lot. We write project proposals to them and they help the department. We are lucky that our efforts are now yielding results crucial at the national level.
In other countries, the government allocates a budget for everything. Not only that, the government also provides benefits to researchers. Researchers should not do their jobs while worrying about their basic needs. It is not about comfort, but basic needs. Then the researcher can deliver.
Government officials also need scientific advisors. In every country, top government officials have science advisors, be it environmental science or others. This must be the practice in Ethiopia.
Can we conclude that, in Ethiopia, the government calls on experts only when it needs them for something urgent rather than for proactive work or measures?
There is no government body willing to fulfil the basic needs for research. But whenever the government needs you, they drag you by your ears. But when researchers want something from the government, they do not even allow you to approach.
Is there any way to see and predict earthquake trends?
You can use satellite imagery to see land deformation and the changes happening on the surface. But there is no technology to predict earthquakes. Even California and Japan, though advanced in technology, could not save themselves. But they are much better than us, because their infrastructure is very strongly built. They know which part of their country is exposed to what kind of disaster. So they have all kinds of preparations in place. For instance, in Japan, the price of housing properties located in areas prone to earthquakes are cheaper than those not prone to such disasters.
They have also invested a lot in research. If a disaster happens in these places, they have the logistics ready at any minute at every prone location. Any minute the disaster happens, they can evacuate people, and provide humanitarian assistance.
In Ethiopia, everything starts after the disaster occurs. Even collecting information.
The government, media, public, and scholars all appear to be saying different things about the earthquakes. What measures are expected from each party?
Researchers and scholars in every academy in Ethiopia, not only ours, are paying dearly, and doing everything in their capacity for the good of this country. The government has a responsibility to take and use their output.
Social media users, especially those based abroad, have a big problem. They think everybody working in public institutions is a government cadre. This is very saddening. We work for the public. After we started disseminating the earthquake info, they accused us as if we were doing so in the government’s interest. Social media revolves around this narration. This is very bad.
At every academic and research institution in this country, there are a lot of researchers sacrificing for their country. They are not receiving benefits or basic needs supplies from the government, but they are breaking their backs. And everybody is discrediting them. These researchers could have gone abroad for better benefits. But they chose to serve their country. It is not because they have nowhere to go. They decided to stay and serve their country. It is not fair to blame researchers in the name of social media and journalism.
We do not discriminate. We disseminate our findings and information about the earthquakes to everyone. It is our duty to inform and save lives. Whether it is the opposition or government or public, we serve equally. Everyone is a citizen and we are serving everyone. It is a matter of using our information.
What do you have to say to the government about using scientific data?
Any policy or development that is not supported with science cannot go anywhere. Science is crucial to making informed decisions. Capacity building for researchers and institutions is essential. There are all kinds of researchers in Ethiopia. But the country is not using them.
What do you think about Addis Ababa University’s recent autonomy?
Being autonomous helps us to do a lot of things. Some claim autonomy makes the university a private institution. That is wrong. Instead of always begging the government for a budget, this helps the university to do a lot of things and raise resources. A lot of families are willing to send their children abroad for education, paying a lot of money. Why don’t they send them to Addis Ababa, with less expense and quality education? The autonomy will also help the university teachers to get better benefits by doing better work. I think autonomy is not bad. But it will take time to reach that point.
The government claimed to have launched a satellite a few years ago, and has announced it is preparing to launch a second. It has claimed to be working on a launch pad, which it says it is looking to lease to other countries looking to launch spacecraft from Ethiopia. There were also plans to launch a communications satellite. Does Ethiopia benefit from the government’s space satellite initiatives?
The government should respond to this question. But, to tell the truth, most of what the government has been saying about the space initiatives and the satellites, is far from the truth. How did the first satellite it said it launched benefit the country? At some point, the news was all about the satellite. What is the outcome? What is the capacity built in the space program? We have not seen anything. The country has allocated substantial resources in the name of such space program initiatives. But there are no returns.
Now, before the first one returns, the government says it is preparing to send the second satellite. Some have joked that the second satellite is going to look for the first. Some individuals have also abused resources mobilized for the Entoto Space Observatory. We believe there is corruption behind the much-touted space programs.
Is the Space Science and Geospatial Institute conducting any work relevant to the earthquakes or the space programs?
I believe what the government is doing is a duplication of what we have already done and are doing. Instead of supporting our efforts, the government is trying to duplicate them. We can build capacity for them, but they are duplicating what we did. Such institutions need very high caliber leadership and researchers.