{"id":210936,"date":"2023-11-13T21:04:31","date_gmt":"2023-11-14T03:04:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/?p=210936"},"modified":"2023-11-13T21:04:31","modified_gmt":"2023-11-14T03:04:31","slug":"ethiopias-abiy-takes-a-page-from-russia-china-in-asserting-the-right-to-restore-historical-claim-to-strategic-waters-the-conversation-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/?p=210936","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia&#8217;s Abiy takes a page from Russia, China in asserting the right to restore historical claim to strategic waters\u00a0&#8211; The Conversation (US)\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/L2yLKrwVtJfT3ImYiUUlLw--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQyNw--\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/the_conversation_us_articles_815\/c4b0e7072f522aad82692e5359e1024a\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrives in Beijing on Oct. 16, 2023.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/ethiopian-prime-minister-abiy-ahmed-arrives-at-beijing-news-photo\/1726773830?adppopup=true\">Ken Ishii\/Getty Images<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Published: November 13, 2023 8.29am EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Author<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/mahad-darar-1427854\">Mahad Darar<\/a>    Ph.D. Student of Political Science, Colorado State University<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Disclosure statement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Mahad Darar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/colorado-state-university-1267\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/colorado-state-university-1267\">Colorado State University<\/a>\u00a0provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ena.et\/web\/eng\/w\/eng_3458629\">claimed on Oct. 13, 2023<\/a>, that his landlocked country has a right to demand maritime access to a Red Sea port from its neighbors in the Horn of Africa \u2013 first through diplomatic means, he said, or by force if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">In confrontational language, Abiy all but threatened conflict should Ethiopia be denied what he called the country\u2019s intrinsic right to waterway expansion. He has since&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/world\/ethiopia-pm-abiy-seeks-to-quell-neighbours-concerns-over-invasion\">sought to soften his comments<\/a>, but the remarks have nonetheless&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2023\/11\/02\/ethiopias-prime-minister-wants-a-red-sea-harbour\">rattled the region<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Such a move would help Ethiopia to reassert itself as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/landlocked-ethiopia-wants-better-sea-access-a-port-deal-with-neighbours-could-benefit-the-region-211759\">the dominant player<\/a>&nbsp;in the Horn of Africa, located in East Africa along a strategic maritime trade route. Ethiopia has been landlocked since coastal&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2018\/6\/29\/ethiopia-eritrea-and-the-hope-for-lasting-peace\">Eritrea broke away and became independent<\/a>&nbsp;in 1993 after a decadeslong war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"The Horn of Africa\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/jKFO6\/1\/#?secret=5NhlGw0ftN\" data-secret=\"5NhlGw0ftN\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"549\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Abiy, a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/peace\/2019\/summary\/\">Nobel Peace Prize winner<\/a>&nbsp;once acclaimed for promoting peace and international cooperation but later accused of being&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/11\/29\/939902460\/nobel-peace-prize-winner-to-belligerent-warmaker-ethiopia-under-abiy-ahmed\">a belligerent warmaker<\/a>, has alarmed countries in the region with his recent remarks. Abiy invoked a 19th-century Abyssinian warrior,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/ras-alula-and-the-scramble-for-africa-a-political-biography-ethiopia-eritrea-1875-1897\/oclc\/34320977\">Ras Alula Aba Nega<\/a>, who had proclaimed the Red Sea as Ethiopia\u2019s \u201cnatural boundary.\u201d The concern is in attempting to assert itself, Ethiopia might risk&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-africa-67332811\">reigniting a conflict<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Abiy\u2019s comments come at a time when Ethiopia is in a period of soul-searching, caught between the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2019\/04\/08\/ethiopias-transition-democracy-has-hit-rough-patch-it-needs-support-abroad\">paths of democracy and authoritarianism<\/a>. They also signal a potential willingness by Abiy to break with international norms amid a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/africa\/blinken-meet-ethiopian-government-leaders-repair-ties-2023-03-15\/\">growing shift away<\/a>&nbsp;from once welcoming powers in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">His rhetoric echoes ambitious geopolitical powers like China and Russia, both of which have shown a willingness to use military force to dominate strategic waters \u2013 as evidenced by Russia\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2014\/mar\/07\/ukraine-russia-crimea-naval-base-tatars-explainer\">invasion of Crimea in 2014<\/a>&nbsp;and China\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/china-boxed-america-out-of-south-china-sea-military-d2833768\">military posturing in the South China Sea<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">They also come at a time when&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/opinions\/2020\/12\/7\/abiys-efforts-to-unify-ethiopia-could-lead-to-its-disintegration\">Abiy struggles to unite Ethiopia<\/a>&nbsp;behind a single ideological nationalism and is unable to contain insurgencies by two ethnic groups \u2013 the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-africa-67361386\">Amhara paramilitary organization Fano<\/a>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.africanews.com\/2023\/11\/09\/second-round-of-talks-between-ethiopian-government-and-oromo-rebels\/\">Oromo Liberation Army<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 both of whom hold historical grievances against the Ethiopian government and strive for greater political self-determination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Africa\u2019s ties with the major powers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/557240\/original\/file-20231102-31-3wrr4t.jpg?w=800&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Leaders of China, Russia, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Kazakhstan walking.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.4990059642147118;width:569px;height:auto\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev head to a group photo session at the third Belt and Road forum on Oct. 18, 2023, in Beijing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/chinese-president-xi-jinping-russian-president-vladimir-news-photo\/1730510539?adppopup=true\">Photo by Suo Takekuma-Pool\/Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">As a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.libarts.colostate.edu\/people\/mmahad\/\">researcher in international relations and conflict resolution<\/a>, I have watched as African countries have been courted by international powers, partly because of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/africa-is-being-courted-by-china-russia-and-the-us-why-the-continent-shouldnt-pick-sides-210516\">sea trade routes<\/a>. Africa\u2019s sea trade routes are of strategic and economic importance for major powers like China and the U.S. They provide international shipping and trade, and access to critical resources. They also are key for maintaining geopolitical influence, as evidenced by military outposts such as the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cnreurafcent.cnic.navy.mil\/Installations\/Camp-Lemonnier-Djibouti\/#:%7E:text=Welcome%20to%20Camp%20Lemonnier%2C%20Djibouti,in%20the%20Horn%20of%20Africa.\">U.S. base in Djibouti<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2022\/07\/15\/russia-sudan-putin-east-africa-port-red-sea-naval-base-scuttled\/\">Russian attempts to establish a naval presence<\/a>&nbsp;in the Red Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Abiy\u2019s new diplomatic alliances were on display on Oct. 18, 2023, during his visit to China for a forum on the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-turns-10-xi-announces-8-new-priorities-continues-push-for-global-influence-216014\">Belt and Road Initiative<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 an infrastructure project that has seen China grow its influence across the Global South. During the meeting, Abiy was seen walking in step with Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Photos from the conference seemingly conveyed Abiy\u2019s alignment with those leaders and renewed Washington\u2019s long-standing concerns over&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2023\/3\/15\/refile-blinken-to-meet-ethiopian-government-leaders-to-repair-ties\">its weakening ties<\/a>&nbsp;to Ethiopia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Such concerns have been in the air since the outbreak of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/gallery\/2023\/11\/2\/photos-one-year-on-peace-holds-in-tigray-but-ethiopia-still-fractured\">Ethiopia\u2019s Tigray war<\/a>&nbsp;in late 2020. The conflict led to President Joe Biden\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/presidential-actions\/2023\/09\/07\/notice-on-the-continuation-of-the-national-emergency-with-respect-to-ethiopia-2\/\">Executive Order 14046<\/a>, imposing sanctions on certain persons in the Ethiopian government over documented human-rights abuses, and subsequent economic and arms embargoes, effectively isolating Ethiopia from its traditional Western allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">In response, Ethiopia turned toward China and Iran,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/12\/20\/world\/africa\/drones-ethiopia-war-turkey-emirates.html\">procuring drones<\/a>&nbsp;that eventually tipped the balance in the Tigray conflict. The Ethiopian government\u2019s rhetoric has since become increasingly Eastern-focused, distancing itself from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This shift culminated in Ethiopia\u2019s accession alongside five other states, including Iran, to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/08\/21\/world\/asia\/brics-summit-members.html?searchResultPosition=1\">the BRICS group<\/a>, composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa \u2013 a move that offers Ethiopia additional avenues to circumvent future U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Domestic turmoil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">In addition to emulating Russia and China, the timing and riskiness of Abiy\u2019s maritime motivations warrant scrutiny, especially given Ethiopia\u2019s ongoing internal strife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">I believe that a motivating factor for the maritime claim is Abiy seeking to galvanize the people of Africa\u2019s second most populous country through the creation of a potent nationalist narrative. This comes in the wake of his unsuccessful \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ethiopia-insight.com\/2020\/02\/16\/medemer-in-a-land-of-extremes\/\">Medemer\u201d campaign<\/a>, which tried but failed to create a single unifying ideology for Ethiopians to rally behind. Medemer, which means \u201ctogetherness,\u201d was coined by Abiy when he took power in 2018 in hopes to unite and galvanize an Ethiopia divided along ethnic lines for the past 30 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">In addition to the insurrection threat, Ethiopia is beset by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2023\/11\/02\/ethiopia-atrocities-mar-ceasefire-anniversary\">political violence<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wfp.org\/countries\/ethiopia\">hunger and poverty<\/a>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/ethiopia-religious-tension-is-getting-worse-5-factors-driving-groups-apart-214278\">worsening religious tensions<\/a>, problems that Abiy may want to divert attention from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/557247\/original\/file-20231102-19-2mtyf1.jpg?w=800&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"An Ethiopian woman scoops up portions of wheat to be allocated to waiting families.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.4990059642147118;width:590px;height:auto\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An Ethiopian woman scoops up portions of wheat to be allocated to waiting families in the Tigray region on May 8, 2021.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.ap.org\/detail\/EthiopiaHunger\/3b4f03e309f143c8a5e32e40752984f0\/photo?Query=ethiopia%20&amp;mediaType=photo&amp;sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&amp;dateRange=Anytime&amp;totalCount=12241&amp;currentItemNo=30\">AP Photo\/Ben Curtis, File<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Abiy risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Abiy\u2019s bold rhetoric may backfire in several ways, both domestically and internationally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Given the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2023\/11\/07\/ethiopia-eritrea-war-tplf\/\">heightened state of regional alert<\/a>&nbsp;following Abiy\u2019s comments, his approach could easily lead to escalated tensions or even armed conflict with neighboring countries. There are already reports of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2023\/11\/07\/ethiopia-eritrea-war-tplf\/\">Eritrea being on high alert<\/a>&nbsp;amid Ethiopia\u2019s amassing troops between its border and Eritrea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Abiy\u2019s attempt to distract from internal discord may inadvertently generate new crises for Ethiopia\u2019s already stretched military and recovering economy, and thereby jeopardize Ethiopia\u2019s already strained economic and security capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">In addition, Abiy\u2019s attempts to emulate global powers like China and Russia and impose its will through force carries its own risks. China and Russia have the military might to enforce their geopolitical ambitions, a luxury that Ethiopia does not have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">And it is unlikely that China will extend the same level of support to Ethiopia as it&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/china-firms-russia-body-armor-bullet-proof-drones-thermal-optics-army-equipment-shanghai-h-win\/\">did to Russia<\/a>&nbsp;during its invasion of Ukraine. Unlike with Russia, Beijing doesn\u2019t rely on Ethiopia for access to raw materials it needs. Similarly, Russia is not expected to supply arms to Ethiopia while it is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/russia-desperate-need-for-weapons-ukraine-win-for-north-korea-2023-9\">seeking to replenish its own arsenal from North Korea<\/a>&nbsp;to continue its fight in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">As such, trying to adopt a similar assertive maritime stance in a region already fraught with tensions could prove disastrous for Ethiopia \u2013 plunging the country and its neighbors into extended turmoil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrives in Beijing on Oct. 16, 2023.\u00a0Ken Ishii\/Getty Images Published: November 13, 2023 8.29am EST Author Disclosure statement Mahad Darar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-210936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-19"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=210936"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":210937,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210936\/revisions\/210937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=210936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=210936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=210936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}