![\"Mahad](\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=32&d=mm&r=g\")
<\/p>\n\n\n\nEthiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed demands Red Sea port access, risking regional conflict and straining international relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BY\u00a0MAHAD DARAR<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n NOVEMBER 13, 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ethiopia has been landlocked since coastal Eritrea broke away and became independent in 1993 after a decades-long war.(Image Credit: Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed<\/a> claimed<\/a> on October 13, 2023, that his landlocked country has a right to demand maritime access to a Red Sea port from its neighbors in the Horn of Africa<\/a> \u2014 first through diplomatic means, he said, or by force if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In confrontational language, Abiy all but threatened conflict should Ethiopia<\/a> be denied what he called the country\u2019s intrinsic right to waterway expansion. He has since sought to soften his comments<\/a>, but the remarks have nonetheless rattled the region<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Such a move would help Ethiopia to reassert itself as the dominant player in the Horn of Africa<\/a>, located in East Africa<\/a> along a strategic maritime trade route. Ethiopia has been landlocked since coastal Eritrea<\/a> broke away and became independent in 1993 after a decades-long war<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Abiy, a Nobel Peace Prize winner once acclaimed for promoting peace and international cooperation but later accused of being a belligerent warmaker<\/a>, has alarmed countries in the region with his recent remarks. Abiy invoked a 19th-century Abyssinian warrior, Ras Alula Aba Nega, who had proclaimed the Red Sea as Ethiopia\u2019s \u201cnatural boundary.\u201d The concern is in attempting to assert itself, Ethiopia might risk reigniting a conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Abiy\u2019s comments come at a time when Ethiopia is in a period of soul-searching, caught between the paths of democracy and authoritarianism<\/a>. They also signal a potential willingness by Abiy to break with international norms amid a growing shift away from once-welcoming powers in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n His rhetoric echoes ambitious geopolitical powers like China<\/a> and Russia<\/a>, both of which have shown a willingness to use military force to dominate strategic waters \u2014 as evidenced by Russia\u2019s invasion of Crimea<\/a> in 2014 and China\u2019s military posturing in the South China Sea<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They also come at a time when\u00a0Abiy struggles to unite Ethiopia behind a single ideological nationalism<\/a>\u00a0and is unable to contain insurgencies by two ethnic groups \u2014 the\u00a0Amhara paramilitary organization Fano<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Oromo Liberation Army<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 both of whom hold historical grievances against the Ethiopian government and strive for greater political self-determination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As a researcher<\/a> in international relations and conflict resolution, I have watched as African countries have been courted by international powers, partly because of sea trade routes. Africa\u2019s<\/a> sea trade routes are of strategic and economic importance for major powers like China and the U.S. They provide international shipping and trade, and access to critical resources. They also are key for maintaining geopolitical influence, as evidenced by military outposts such as the U.S. base in Djibouti and Russian attempts to establish a naval presence in the Red Sea<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Abiy\u2019s new diplomatic alliances were on display on October 18, 2023, during his visit to China for a forum on the Belt and Road Initiative<\/a> \u2014 an infrastructure project that has seen China grow its influence across the Global South. During the meeting, Abiy was seen walking in step with Presidents Xi Jinping<\/a> and Vladimir Putin<\/a>. Photos from the conference seemingly conveyed Abiy\u2019s alignment with those leaders and renewed Washington\u2019s long-standing concerns over its weakening ties to Ethiopia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Such concerns have been in the air since the outbreak of Ethiopia\u2019s Tigray war in late 2020. The conflict led to President Joe Biden\u2019s Executive Order 14046, imposing sanctions on certain persons in the Ethiopian government over documented human rights abuses, and subsequent economic and arms embargoes, effectively isolating Ethiopia from its traditional Western allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In response, Ethiopia turned toward China and Iran, procuring drones that eventually tipped the balance in the Tigray conflict. The Ethiopian government\u2019s rhetoric has since become increasingly Eastern-focused, distancing itself from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This shift culminated in Ethiopia\u2019s accession alongside five other states, including Iran, to the BRICS<\/a> group, composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa \u2014 a move that offers Ethiopia additional avenues to circumvent future U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition to emulating Russia and China, the timing and riskiness of Abiy\u2019s maritime motivations warrant scrutiny, especially given Ethiopia\u2019s ongoing internal strife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I believe that a motivating factor for the maritime claim is Abiy seeking to galvanize the people of Africa\u2019s second most populous country through the creation of a potent nationalist narrative. This comes in the wake of his unsuccessful \u201cMedemer\u201d<\/a> campaign, which tried but failed to create a single unifying ideology for Ethiopians to rally behind. Medemer, which means \u201ctogetherness,\u201d was coined by Abiy when he took power in 2018 in hopes to unite and galvanize an Ethiopia divided along ethnic lines for the past 30 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition to the insurrection threat, Ethiopia is beset by political violence, hunger and poverty, and worsening religious tensions, problems that Abiy may want to divert attention from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Abiy\u2019s bold rhetoric may backfire in several ways, both domestically and internationally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Given the heightened state of regional alert following Abiy\u2019s comments, his approach could easily lead to escalated tensions or even armed conflict with neighboring countries. There are already reports of Eritrea being on high alert amid Ethiopia\u2019s amassing troops between its border and Eritrea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Abiy\u2019s attempt to distract from internal discord may inadvertently generate new crises for Ethiopia\u2019s already stretched military and recovering economy, and thereby jeopardize Ethiopia\u2019s already strained economic and security capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, Abiy\u2019s attempts to emulate global powers like China and Russia and impose its will through force carry their own risks. China and Russia have the military might to enforce their geopolitical ambitions, a luxury that Ethiopia does not have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And it is unlikely that China will extend the same level of support to Ethiopia as it did to Russia<\/a> during its invasion of Ukraine. Unlike Russia, Beijing doesn\u2019t rely on Ethiopia for access to raw materials it needs. Similarly, Russia is not expected to supply arms to Ethiopia while it is seeking to replenish its own arsenal from North Korea<\/a> to continue its fight in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As such, trying to adopt a similar assertive maritime stance in a region already fraught with tensions could prove disastrous for Ethiopia \u2014 plunging the country and its neighbors into extended turmoil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed demands Red Sea port access, risking regional conflict and straining international relations. BY\u00a0MAHAD DARAR NOVEMBER 13, 2023 Ethiopia has been landlocked since coastal Eritrea broke away and became independent in 1993 after a decades-long war.(Image Credit: Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia) Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed on October 13, 2023, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-211036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-19"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=211036"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211036\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":211037,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211036\/revisions\/211037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=211036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=211036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopanorama.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=211036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Abiy](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/globelynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/ethiopia-red-sea-abiy-ahmed-1200x675.jpg?resize=800%2C450&ssl=1\" "\\"Ethiopian")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAfrica\u2019s Ties with the Major Powers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Domestic Turmoil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
What Abiy Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n