By Kalkidan Yibeltal BBC News, Addis Ababa
- 22 November 2019
Ethiopian politics is about to enter a new phase following the merger of three of the four ethnically-based parties in the governing coalition, which has been in place since 1991.
The new Prosperity Party will also include other allies of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) that currently controls every seat in parliament.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who backed the plan, has hailed the decision as a “crucial step in harnessing our energy to work toward a shared vision”.
But the refusal of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to become part of the new party highlights what problems could lie ahead for the prime minister.
He faces his first electoral test next year when his vision of a country that is unified on the one hand and ethnically diverse on the other will be voted on.
What’s behind the merger?
What’s behind the merger?
Talks about a merger have been going on for more than a decade. But the prime minister, in power since April last year, is bent on recreating and rebranding the party because he believes the EPRDF has a tarnished image.
He also wants to lead a party that more closely reflects his own ideals.
The coalition was formed in 1988 by ethnically-based groups fighting the dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam. It brought together the TPLF, the Amhara Democratic Party, the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement.
All four had their roots in Marxist guerrilla movements, and although they moved away from that economic approach, the EPRDF backed large state involvement when it came to development.
The Prosperity Party under Mr Abiy says it will have a more liberal economic outlook and give more room to the private sector.
What difference will it make?
Mr Abiy has promoted his philosophy of medemer, meaning “addition”, which is about encouraging everyone’s contribution and ending ethnic separatism.
The Prosperity Party, unlike the EPRDF, will include people from all ethnic groups. Historically, with the four parties making up the EPRDF, other ethnicities had a secondary status.
The prime minister also says he wants people to be appointed to office on the basis of merit rather than based on an idea of balancing ethnic groups.
On the other hand, Mr Abiy, an ethnic Oromo, is keen on promoting diversity in the country.
He came to power following a wave of protests from people in Oromia, who had been complaining of political and economic marginalisation, and he is aware that he needs to address these concerns without returning the country to a highly centralised state.
But there are still big questions about how the Prosperity Party is going to operate in the country’s regional states which are ethnically based.
Why is the TPLF objecting?
When the EPRDF came to power, the TPLF was the dominant party. Meles Zenawi, who led the government from 1991 until his death in 2012, and other key figures were from the Tigray region.
But as Tigrayans make up around 6% of the population they would lose a lot of influence in the new merged party.
That influence has already waned since Mr Abiy came to power and there has been growing tension between him and the TPLF leadership.
They also feel that Ethiopia’s growth is down to their approach to economic development, which is based on state intervention and seems to be at odds with the Prosperity Party’s outlook.
But it is not only the TPLF that is concerned. Some members of the ODP, which the prime minister chairs, are reported to be worried that the new party implies a loss of their identity.
What implications could a split have?
It is not yet clear if the TPLF will break away, or whether some members will join the new party while others will leave.
The prime minister appears to be having some back-channel discussions with TPLF members, but the result of those talks is not known.
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If there was a split, it would mean that the TPLF would become an opposition party but still be in control of the Tigray regional state.
That could lead to greater tension with the federal government and, in the most extreme case, the possibility of the creation of a de facto separate Tigrayan state.
What difference could it make to the 2020 election?
In many people’s eyes, no matter how much reform there has been, the EPRDF remains associated with oppression and human rights abuses, which would be problematic at the ballot box.
The idea of the new party has already got a positive reaction among some people, but the last few years has seen so many changes that it is unpredictable how things will turn out in next year’s polls.
Ethiopia’s Ruling Coalition Merges Into Single Party
By VOA News
November 22, 2019 07:08 AM
Three of the four ethnic-based parties in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front or EPRDF, voted Thursday to become one single party.
The newly formed party, created just months ahead of the general election in May, is called the Prosperity Party.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a statement that Prosperity is “committed to strengthening and applying a true federal system, which recognizes the diversity and contributions of all Ethiopians.”
The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front or TPLF, which dominated EPRDF before Abiy became prime minister, refused to participate in Thursday’s vote.
“The whole process is a total sham,” said Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF member. The prime minister didn’t follow the right procedures . . . it was wrong as well as undemocratic.”
Last month, TPLF warned in a statement that a merged party would “put Ethiopia on the road to disintegration.”
Ethiopia’s Ruling Coalition Votes to Unify as One Party
Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg News
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Ethiopia’s ruling coalition agreed to create a unified national party as Africa’s second most-populous nation prepares for elections next year.
The council of the four-party alliance voted in favor of the merger on Thursday following approval by the executive committee last week, Fikadu Tessema, a committee member, said in an interview with the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corp. The new party will be called the Prosperity Party.
The move by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, a former rebel movement, comes after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed that next year’s vote will be democratic.
It’s “a crucial step in harnessing our energy to work toward a shared vision,” Abiy said on Twitter after the vote. “Prosperity Party is committed to strengthening and applying a true federal system which recognizes the diversity and contributions of all Ethiopians.”
(Updates with comment from prime minister in last paragraph)
To contact the reporter on this story: Samuel Gebre in Abidjan at sgebre@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Malingha at dmalingha@bloomberg.net, Hilton Shone
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition unites to form single party
By Afp
Published: 06:13 EST, 22 November 2019
Abiy had stood firmly by the merger plan
Ethiopia’s ruling ethnic-based coalition has merged into a single party, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said, but a key faction boycotted the vote.
Three out of four members of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) agreed on Thursday to form a single party ahead of general elections in May.
The new party is called the Prosperity Party.
But the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) — the once dominant party of the late strongman Meles Zenawi — refused to take part in the vote.
The vote to unify passed without objection from the three other parties.
“The unanimous decision passed today (Thursday) to merge the party is a crucial step in harnessing our energy to work toward a shared vision,” Abiy said in a statement.
“Prosperity Party is committed to strengthening and applying a true federal system, which recognises the diversity and contributions of all Ethiopians.”
The former EPRDF was created in the late 1980s by rebels who came to power after toppling the dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.
– Ethnic divisions –
Though composed of four ethno-regional parties, the coalition was dominated by TPLF. This was despite the fact that Tigrayans make up only six percent of Ethiopia’s population of more than 100 million people.
Anti-government protests beginning in late 2015 and led by the Oromos and Amharas — Ethiopia´s two largest ethnic groups — swept Abiy to office in April 2018.
Under Abiy, the TPLF has been stripped of much of its power, and analysts have long said that enmity between the TPLF and Abiy’s government means the coalition exists in name only.
In an October statement, the TPLF warned that a decision to quickly move forward with the merger risked tearing the country apart.
“The TPLF has no intention of participating in a merged EPRDF which will put Ethiopia on the road to disintegration,” the statement said.
But Abiy has stood firmly by the merger plan. In remarks to lawmakers on October 22, he dismissed the possibility that the merger would fuel instability.
“The notion that if the EPRDF is divided Ethiopia will be in disorder is a very wrong assumption,” he said. “Ethiopia is the father of the EPRDF, not the other way around.”
– Rebranding –
Abiy is likely gambling that a rebranding of the EPRDF could help its members perform better in elections currently scheduled for May, said Abel Abate, an Ethiopian political analyst.
As the situation currently stands, the coalition’s parties in both Oromia and Amhara (the Oromo Democratic Party and the Amhara Democratic Party) “will have difficulty winning the majority of seats in their regions,” Abel said.
“Abiy wants to rebrand the party in such a way so that these parties have a better chance of success.”
The merger could also potentially tamp down ethnic violence that has been a recurring feature of Abiy’s rule.
“They see it as a way of defeating ethnic tension in the country that has been created by ‘ethno-nationalist’ parties in the respective regions,” Abel said.
“It could foster national unity and ethnic harmony among Ethiopia´s divided polity,” said Abebe Aynete, from the Ethiopian Foreign Relations Strategic Studies Institute, a state-linked think tank.
“If the Prosperity Party project fails, it could lead to the continuation of even more political confusion and uncertainty,” he added.