The pursuit of negotiated settlements for the situation in Libya, and with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, reach a crux, writes Dina Ezzat
Dina Ezzat , Tuesday 23 Jun 2020
Within the next few days Egypt is hoping to have secured the scheduling of a UN Security Council (UNSC) session to discuss the impasse that Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia hit while trying to find a negotiated agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, sources were suggesting that the meeting could convene as early as Thursday evening.
On Monday Egypt secured a closed session of informal consultations. The spokesman for the UN secretary-general said UNSC members hoped the three countries would reach an “amicable” agreement.
On 19 June Egypt made good on its declared intention to pursue UNSC intervention to secure a fair and legally binding deal on the dam after the failure of the most recent round of negotiations. In a letter addressed to the current chair of the UNSC, French Permanent Representative Nicolas de Rivière, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri drew attention to Ethiopia’s “continued intransigence” and “its desire to fill and operate GERD without any meaningful protections that could minimise the adverse impact of the dam on” downstream countries.
Underlining that this is “a matter of greatest consequence to Egypt”, Shoukri asked the UNSC to “urgently consider this matter at the earliest possible opportunity”.
An informed Egyptian official said that the UNSC meeting could pressure Addis Ababa to be less intransigent. While no one expects more than non-binding recommendations to emerge at this stage, the session will prompt leading capitals to push towards the completion of the negotiations mediated by the US and the World Bank that by February had produced a draft agreement that Egypt initialed but Ethiopia ignored.
On 22 June Ethiopia sent its own letter to the UNSC deploring the Egyptian appeal for intervention and arguing that no deal could be reached as long as Egypt continued to insist on its “historic rights and current use”.
During the lengthy negotiations initiated with the signing of the 2015 Declaration of Principles by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, Cairo and Khartoum have consistently said an agreement over the dam had to take into account existing Nile treaties.
The immediate task, according to one Cairo official, is for the three riparian countries to work in good faith towards “a legally binding agreement — with clear cut language on the mitigation of droughts and a dispute settlement mechanism”.
Cairo is hoping that by placing the issue before the UNSC its leading members will press Ethiopia to negotiate and reach an agreement before it starts filling the dam.
The agreement that Cairo is pursuing, say officials, is based on the deal negotiated by the three riparian countries in Washington earlier this year. The problem is Ethiopia has shown no inclination to sign a legally binding text before it begins to unilaterally fill the dam’s reservoir next month.
This week, Ethiopian officials again announced they would start filling the dam during the current rainy season, with or without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew stated unequivocally his government rejected any agreement that would limit its use of Nile water.
“This is precisely the point that is blocking a deal: Ethiopia kept saying that it was pursuing a hydrological project but now that GERD is almost built Ethiopia is not talking about power generation but rather about control over the Nile,” according to an informed Egyptian official.
“Ethiopia has been trying to twist our arm by tabling either unacceptable deals and partial deals on the first filling. We will not allow Ethiopia to do this.”
In garnering international support, Egypt has courted the Arab League to press Ethiopia to negotiate a fair and comprehensive legally binding deal that focuses on the filling and operation of GERD without getting into debates over historic rights to, or current use of, Nile water. On Tuesday, Arab League foreign ministers discussed the issue, at the request of Egypt, during a video conference.
Prior to addressing the impasse on GERD Arab foreign ministers had discussed developments on the ground in Libya, also at Egypt’s request.
The Arab League ministerial meeting came three days after President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi indicated Egypt’s willingness to pursue military intervention in Libya to stop the advance of Turkish-supported Government of National Accord (GNA) militias in the east of Libya.
While the GNA was battling with the Egyptian-supported Libyan National Army (LNA) around the city of Sirte, 1,000 kilometres from the Egypt-Libya border, Al-Sisi said — speaking to Egypt’s top military brass — that the Libyan town represented a red line for Egypt.
For Egypt, Sirte and adjacent Jufra are far too close to Egyptian territory to be allowed to fall into the hands of militias that owe loyalty to Ankara, Cairo’s regional archenemy.
“We cannot turn a blind eye to having jihadi militias that [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan flew over from Syria positioned in Sirte from where they can launch terrorist attacks against Egypt,” said an informed source.
The source shrugged off a GNA response that qualified Al-Sisi’s statement as an attempt by Cairo to prevent the GNA from exercising its control over Libyan territories as “unconvincing rhetoric”.
The GNA, he said, is not acting as an internationally acknowledged unity government, and it is not the GNA that is controlling Libyan territories, but Erdogan.
According to another Egyptian source, Erdogan “is just trying to show off his power on the ground in Sirte.
“Well, Egypt is now showing Erdogan it is increasing its combat readiness for a possible head-on intervention in Libya to make sure that Ankara doesn’t get its militias to bypass the red line Egypt has defined.
“Erdogan will only budge if he knows that he cannot twist our arm. He will now stay away from Sirte because he knows that if Egypt decides to step in it will do so forcefully,” added the source.
On Saturday Al-Sisi had said any possible intervention in Libya would be based on a request from “the only elected Libyan body”, the House of Representatives. On Monday Aguila Saleh, the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, welcomed the willingness of Egypt to support the wish of the Libyan people to free their country from foreign militias. Several Arab Gulf countries also reiterated their support for Egypt and its right to preserve its strategic interests.
Government sources in Cairo say President Al-Sisi has not yet given the go-ahead for any military action and is still giving room for a political settlement, though they added Al-Sisi had conveyed “clear messages” during a round of phone calls with leaders of countries with direct influence on Libya, including the presidents of the US, Russia and France, the German chancellor and the prime minister of Italy.
Meanwhile, the International Follow-Up Committee on Libya convened on Monday under the co-chairmanship of Hossam Zaki, assistant Arab League secretary-general, and Stephanie Williams, representative of the UN Support Mission in Libya.
According to a statement put out by the meeting, participants “expressed their profound alarm at the serious ongoing military escalation around Sirte, and renewed their calls on the GNA and the LNA to de-escalate immediately, cease all hostilities and military movements, and swiftly conclude the ongoing negotiations” on the military, political and economic track as specified by the Berlin Conference.
The statement also referred to the request of its participants “for all external actors to strictly adhere to their commitments to cease all forms of foreign military intervention in Libya and desist from any destabilising activities in the conflict”.
Similarly, the Arab League in its resolution on Tuesday called for an immediate ceasefire.
For Cairo, Turkey is the main target of the reference to “all external actors” — and if Turkey refuses to take heed of the appeal, there is no reason why Egypt should feel bound.
According to Abdel-Rahman Salah, a former assistant foreign minister, Egypt is too consequential to regional and international peace and security to be overlooked by the international community.
Egypt is at the forefront of the war on terrorism, it protects the maritime routes used by military ships to and from the Arab Gulf and East Asia. Egypt, says Salah, is also a country that has long promoted regional peace and cooperation.
“It is inconceivable that the world’s leading powers will allow Egypt’s security and the welfare of Egyptians to be threatened to a point that prompts Egypt to change course on its long-established policies because if it does everybody, including those leading world powers, will stand to pay a heavy price.”
Salah adds that the sooner the world’s leading powers come to realise that Egypt cannot, and will not, allow either Ethiopia or Turkey to twist its arm, the better off everyone will be.