By Amgad Naguib
September 29, 2020
(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)
Close to where the Blue Nile enters Sudan, Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD. As the name implies, the nation hopes the megaproject will help end decades of political, economic, and social instability.
However, as Ethiopia begins unilaterally filling the dam without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan on how to mitigate GERD’s risks for those countries, the United States and the international community must ensure Ethiopia’s rebirth doesn’t cost lives and livelihoods downstream.
No one begrudges Ethiopia’s right to develop. GERD would bring power to millions of Ethiopians, and other Africans besides. It would regulate the Nile’s flow and reduce the amount of silt taxing dams downstream in Sudan and Egypt.
Moreover, the Dam is a huge source of pride for Ethiopians, who even helped crowdfund its construction. Pop stars sing about it, and social media is plastered with posts from home and the diaspora proclaiming GERD as Ethiopia’s salvation.
This is all well and good. Everyone wants prosperity for Ethiopia. What is good for Ethiopia is good for the Horn of Africa, North Africa, and East Africa. But this is also the point.
Ethiopia is not building GERD in a vacuum. Downstream, millions of Egyptians live on a hydrological knife’s edge, dependent on the Nile for everything from drinking to irrigating Egypt’s paltry 6% of livable land. Unsurprisingly, Egypt has been expressing concerns for a decade on how fast Ethiopia would fill the dam and how it will manage water levels afterwards.