POLITICSETHIOPIA

Can Berlin and Paris reset ‘strained’ EU-Ethiopia ties?

Chrispin Mwakideu

14 hours ago14 hours ago

Germany and France have dispatched their top envoys to Ethiopia to revamp relations strained by the Tigray conflict. Analysts say the EU member states are keen to support the reconstruction process but challenges remain.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s January 12-13 visit to Ethiopia comes as the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) implement a peace deal signed in November to end the Tigray conflict.

Baerbock will be accompanied by her French counterpart, Catherine Colonna, who issued a statement on January 5, saying the trip would underscore their support for the peace deal brokered by the African Union.

The two-year conflict began after TPLF fighters attacked a military base in the north of Ethiopia, prompting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to declare war on the TPLF.

Subsequent fighting — which expanded to include militias from the Amhara region and soldiers from neighboring Eritrea, who supported the Ethiopian National Defense Force — killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions of others.

The Ethiopian government then imposed a blockade on Tigray, which cut off telecommunications and hindered the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

Since the peace accord was signed, the blockade has been lifted, aid is finally flowing, and even the national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, has resumed domestic flights to Tigray.

Consolidating the deal

“They [Baerbock and Colonna] want to make sure that the peace talks that resulted in the signing of the cessation of hostilities between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front would work and to make sure that arrangement would bring lasting peace to Ethiopia,” Mengistu Assefa, a political analyst and commentator in Addis Ababa, told DW.

The European Union is one of the African Union’s biggest donors. However, Ethiopia did not invite the EU to the peace talks, which resulted in the signing of the agreement in Pretoria. According to some observers, that decision led to some discontent in Brussels.

“All relationships of EU member states [with Ethiopia] have been difficult during the conflict in Tigray in the last two years,” Annette Weber, the EU special representative to the Horn of Africa, told DW.

“But the German relationships have been very long-standing, very reliable relations that have been profound,” Weber said. “And what we see right now is warming up again after the peace agreement was signed.”

Mending broken relations

Relations between the European Union and Ethiopia declined after the Tigray civil war broke out, Mengistu said.

“The European Union was critical of the Ethiopian government, especially on how it handled the civil war due to reports of violations of human rights law,” Mengistu said. “That led to cuts in development assistance to the Ethiopian government.”

Now that the peace agreement is holding so far, there has been an improvement in relations between Addis Ababa and Brussels. “That’s likely to continue if there is progress in the peace process with gradual reinstatement of development financing,” William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia at the International Crisis Group, told DW.

“The major issue here is the positioning of the major European Union member states, particularly France and Germany, which at times have taken a somewhat softer line on the [Ethiopian] federal government than the EU institutions themselves,” Davison said.

As the peace process advances, Davison said, “we’re likely to see that softer, more accommodating approach taken by the EU’s member states, but also from the institutions themselves.” This, he said, would lead to a gradual improvement in relations between the European Union and Ethiopia.

Supporting humanitarian work and accountability

Weber said Baerbock and Colonna’s visit sought to acknowledge that a peace deal was inked after two years of a very, very bloody and destructive war.

“The two sides have now agreed to build up humanitarian access again and begin the healing process. So the basis is humanitarian access, the basis is a ceasefire, the basis is accountability,” Weber said.

“But, of course, the steps that are necessary between now and then are still plenty,” Weber said. “That’s the messaging that will be delivered by the two foreign ministers.”

Weber said the European Union had long engaged in ongoing discussions and communication between the sides. For example, the bloc fought hard to gain access to humanitarian aid for Tigray.

After TPLF fighters pushed from Tigray into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar, sending many people fleeing, the EU worked to resettle those who had fled their homes. 

“All the member states and the EU have played quite an important role without being in the limelight,” she said, adding that the European Union has been clear that there won’t be a normalization until and unless the conflict has been resolved and humanitarian access and services are restored.

Rebuilding mutual trust

During the height of the conflict, Ethiopia’s government was of the view that the European Union supported the TPLF and sought to force concessions from Abiy.

“The Ethiopian government felt that the EU stood against it by supporting the Tigrayan rebels and wanted to push Ethiopia by putting undue pressure on it,” Mengistu said. 

“That stance, that rhetoric, was widely sold domestically,” Mengistu added. “It was very impactful on the international arena by pushing Ethiopia to side with the usual [EU] rivals — such as China and Russia — especially in discussions on the conflict at the UN Security Council meetings.”

At the grassroots and elite levels, Mengistu said, there is a strong anti-Western feeling that will probably persist and continue to affect Ethiopia’s foreign policy.

Mengistu urged the German and French foreign ministers to seize the opportunity to restore relations with Ethiopia in order to benefit global cooperation.

Geopolitical battle on the Horn of Africa

The visit by Baerbock and Colonna comes just days after China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, began a weeklong tour of African nations, including Ethiopia.

Before Qin’s visit, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly was also in Ethiopia, where he witnessed the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Mengistu said the Horn of Africa had become the focal point of a geopolitical rivalry. He said France might want to explore ways to rebuild bilateral relations that soured during the conflict. For example, France canceled its assistance to Ethiopia’s navy project and now seeks to resume it as Moscow is also competing for the same project.

Mengistu said the European Union’s critical stance on Ethiopia could be diffused after the two influential EU member states start to court Abiy.

Edited by: Keith Walker

Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

The widespread destruction, displacement and suffering in strategic towns in Amhara came as Tigrayan fighters and Ethiopian government and local Amhara forces wrestled for control over the region.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Fighting in the hills

Tigrayan fighters are believed to have suffered defeat in the hills around Mezezo in the Amhara region in early December. They had been advancing toward the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The fighting lasted five days, according to local eyewitnesses. People stayed indoors during heavy fighting, terrified by the sound of artillery. In the area, bodies are decaying along the road and in fields.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Destruction in Mezezo

Ayu Berhan hid in a forest for nine days in late November as Tigrayan fighters occupied her village of Mezezo, some 200 km (125 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa. The 55-year-old found her house destroyed by artillery when she returned. “[In the forest] we were hungry and thirsty. There were also children. We lost everything and when we came back to our home, we lost a place to stay,” she told DW.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Life is slowly resuming

The TPLF had controlled the strategic towns of Kombolcha and Dessie for several weeks before retreating. Life in those places is slowly resuming, but there are shortages of food items, fuel and other essential items. Electricity and running water have yet to return.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Destroyed hospital

The hospital is a referral center for about 8 million people. It was used as a military hospital by both the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan fighters at separate times. Locals sad Tigrayan fighters looted it before leaving. “The medicine they didn’t take, they made it unusable,” said Melaku Sete, who runs the now destroyed oxygen center at Dessie hospital. The region faces a shortage of oxygen.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Wollo University badly damaged

The institution in Dessie was badly damaged by heavy artillery and looted. “It’s really devastating,” said Menagesha Ayele, the campus director. He attributes the damage to Tigrayan forces. “I didn’t expect it. This is the university where their children used to study for their bachelor’s and master’s.” Eyewitnesses said soldiers from both sides of the conflict used the campus at different times.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Aid warehouses looted

In Kombolcha, dozens of warehouses used for storing international and local humanitarian aid were heavily looted. Local officials have accused Tigrayan fighters, but humanitarian sources said the community played a major part in taking food and other items. Other armed groups are also believed to have later participated in the looting.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Mass grave in Teraf

In the village of Teraf, 21 unarmed civilians and four fighters were buried in this mass grave. Teraf is located within the Oromo special zone in the Amhara region. Residents said Oromo and Tigrayan rebels targeted Amharic-speaking people, a minority in the area. Children aged 8 and 12 are said to be among the victims.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Shot by soldiers

Arabie Hassen, 17, said she was home with her mother and siblings when a fighter entered and shot at her. “It is better to die than living with this wound because it makes me suffer me a lot,” Arabie told DW. Her cousin (pictured on the phone) was killed in an adjacent house on that day. Arabie’s mother, Fatima, said her children still have nightmares as a result of the shooting.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Displaced in Debre Berhan

Schools in Debre Berhan, three hours by road from Addis Ababa, are now shelters for some of the hundreds of thousands of people who fled the fighting. “There’s nothing to eat. There are children here… people have left their homes without anything,” said Mamito Belachew, who came from Ataye. “We are told now it’s peaceful there but if we go, there is nothing. The houses are burned down.”

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Militias on patrol

Local volunteer militias are still on the lookout for Tigrayan fighters. The militias are often farmers or civil servants with little military training. “We use this hill to watch for remaining TPLF militias, and when we find them, we will apprehend them,” said Bahere Kefele, who joined a militia group in Shewa Robit. “We can’t assume they’ve left our area. We must be alert.”

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW

Shewa Robit economy shattered

Shewa Robit, a town of about 50,000 people on the highway between Dessie to Addis Ababa, was occupied by Tigrayan fighters for several days. They destroyed several banks and hotels, leaving behind a shattered economy. Local officials said it could take years for the town and the region to recover from the damage.

Image: Maria Gerth-Niculescu/DW