Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.The highlights this week: East African nations try to quell conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia, leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement meet in Uganda, and Egypt’s soccer superstar Mo Salah battles injury at the Africa Cup of Nations
East Africa’s Noncompliant Neighbors
East African leaders have asked Sudan’s warring generals to immediately cease fighting and meet face-to-face within 14 days. They also demanded that Ethiopia withdraw from its port access deal with Somaliland and seek consent from Somalia.The heads of state of the eight-nation trade bloc known as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) met Thursday in Entebbe, Uganda, on the sidelines of the Kampala-based summits of the Non-Aligned Movement and the G-77 plus China—a gathering of developing nations.East African officials agreed on establishing a high-level panel to work on revising an African Union-proposed road map for peace in Sudan within one month. The panel members, who were appointed by the African Union Commission chairperson, comprise the AU’s Mohamed Ibn Chambas; former Ugandan Vice President Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe; and the AU chair’s former special representative for Somalia, Francisco Madeira.
Yet it seems that neither Sudan nor Ethiopia is willing to cooperate with IGAD. Sudan even suspended its membership in the group. The junta accused the bloc of “violating” the country’s sovereignty and refused to attend the meeting after IGAD invited the leader of the army’s rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is widely known as Hemeti.War broke out in April 2023 between Hemeti’s RSF and Sudan’s army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, as both leaders vied for power. The fighting has killed about 12,000 people and displaced 7 million. And more than half of Sudan’s population of 45 million need aid.Burhan is enraged with the African leaders, who offered Hemeti diplomatic recognition at a time when the Sudanese army has lost ground to the RSF in the city of Wad Madani, much of the capital city of Khartoum, and the western Darfur region. Both sides have been accused of war crimes, but Hemeti has enjoyed a string of official receptions befitting a head of state rather than a feared warlord during his recent tour of six African nations—including regional mediating powers Kenya and South Africa.Hemeti allegedly has the backing of the United Arab Emirates, which has reportedly been funneling arms to the RSF via Amdjarass in northern Chad, according to an as-yet unpublished United Nations report seen by Foreign Policy. U.N. investigators documented ethnic-based massacres, summary executions, and rapes similar to the atrocities carried out by Hemeti’s janjaweed militia in Darfur two decades ago.The Emirati foreign ministry said in a statement that the country “is not supplying arms and ammunition to any of the warring parties” and denied violating the U.N. arms embargo in Sudan. U.S. officials are concerned that an outright win for Hemeti would strengthen UAE influence as well as Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries, who provided Hemeti with equipment early in the war.But Sudan wasn’t the only nation that was irked by the IGAD meeting. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not attend, saying it clashed with “a prior engagement.” But he did arrive in Kampala one day after, on Jan. 19, to attend the Non-Aligned Movement summit. He has not responded to IGAD’s directive regarding his country’s recent agreement with Somaliland.The unrecognized territory of Somaliland, which is located in northwestern Somalia, signed a provisional deal on Jan. 1 to lease naval and Red Sea port access to Ethiopia for 50 years in exchange for Addis Ababa recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty. In response, the Somali government recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia and lambasted the deal as a “hostile move” and a breach of Somalia’s “territorial integrity.”Ahead of IGAD’s meeting, Somalia rejected any discussions with Addis Ababa over the port deal. “There is no space for mediation unless Ethiopia retracts its illegal MOU [memorandum of understanding] and reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia,” the country’s foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday.
U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer—who attended IGAD as an observer along with representatives from the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—said the port pact threatened to undermine efforts to combat militants linked to al Qaeda in Somalia.“We have already seen troubling indications that al-Shabaab is using the MOU to generate new recruits,” he told IGAD delegates.The UAE could again be the major player behind the scenes. The UAE provided extensive military support to Ethiopia during its recent war against rebels in the Tigray region and is likely to unofficially support Addis Ababa’s deal. Emirati-based multinational DP World has upgraded Somaliland’s Berbera Port since it won a 30-year concession to run it in 2016 despite objections from Somalia.Since Abiy has presented access to the Red Sea as an existential issue for his country’s economy, it is difficult to see how regional leaders could dissuade him. But it is unlikely that the dispute will escalate into full-blown conflict, given the fragility of both states; Mogadishu is dealing with al-Shabab insurgents while Addis Ababa has just emerged from a devastating civil war. Somalia is also no match for Ethiopia’s military strength, and all of the region’s leaders currently have far more on their plate in Sudan.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday, Jan. 24: UNESCO celebrates the World Day for African and Afrodescendant Culture.Wednesday, Jan. 24, to Friday, Jan. 26: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Nigeria and Angola as part of a four-nation Africa tour that began Monday in Cape Verde and Ivory Coast.Thursday, Jan. 25: Egypt marks the 13th anniversary of the start of the Egyptian revolution, which led to the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.South Africa’s central bank is set to determine interest rates.
What We’re WatchingDelegates and government representatives attend the closing session of the 19th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Kampala on Jan. 20.
Delegates and government representatives attend the closing session of the 19th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Kampala on Jan. 20.LUIS TATO/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Non-Aligned Movement summit. More than two dozen heads of state and senior officials of the Non-Aligned Movement met last week in Kampala, Uganda, to demand an immediate cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and for nations in the global south to gain a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza demonstrated the inadequacy of the council, where the United States has vetoed three cease-fire resolutions. “We should establish a system of global governance that is fair and equitable, and has the capacity to respond to the needs of all persons in situations of threat and harm,” Ramaphosa said.Egypt, one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement, is particularly eager to see an end to the Israel-Hamas war. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea since the conflict began have diverted vessels from the Suez Canal, hurting Cairo’s economy at a time when it is seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. According to the Suez Canal Authority, revenue from the waterway had fallen by 40 percent in the first 11 days of January.At the summit, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said the “refusal to accept” a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians “would indefinitely prolong a conflict that has become a major threat to global peace and security; exacerbate polarization; and embolden extremists everywhere.”Nearly all African nations belong to the Non-Aligned Movement, a 120-member bloc formed during the Cold War among developing nations unwilling to align with the United States or the Soviet Union. Today, the movement’s member states represent more than half the world’s population.Rwanda-Burundi tensions. After reopening it only two years ago, Burundi has once again shut its border with Rwanda after Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye suspended diplomatic ties with Kigali. Ndayishimiye accused Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s government of training RED-Tabara, a Burundian rebel militia.The armed group has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, including one in December 2023 that killed 20 people near Burundi’s border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the rebels have a base. Congo has also accused Kigali of supporting the M23 rebel group, which has launched an active insurgency in the country; Kigali denies both claims.In a statement emailed to Foreign Policy, the Rwandan government denounced Burundi’s “baseless and incendiary” allegations. “Rwanda has no interest in creating conflict with our neighbours,” the statement said.
Zimbabwe drought. Almost 20 percent of Zimbabwe’s population is at risk of hunger following a poor harvest due to a drought that’s now been compounded by below-average rainfall from El Niño. The U.N. World Food Program said Wednesday that it was working with Zimbabwe’s government to provide food to 2.7 million people in rural areas.The drought has also caused at least 160 elephant deaths. Zimbabwe is home to the world’s second-largest elephant population, and both species of African elephants are endangered.Senegal elections. The final list of 20 presidential candidates published by Senegal’s Constitutional Council excludes firebrand politician Ousmane Sonko, who finished third in the 2019 presidential election. Sonko was disqualified from the ballot because of a six-month suspended sentence following his conviction for libel. “This conviction renders him ineligible for a period of five years,” the council said.Karim Wade, another opposition leader and the son of former Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade, was excluded because of his dual French and Senegalese nationality at the time he formally declared his candidacy. Wade, however, said he had renounced his French nationality three days earlier. He called the disqualification “a blatant attack on democracy.”Still, this year’s presidential election is crowded compared to the last such contest—where just five candidates appeared on the ballot.