In Depth “Not an organization”: Russian BRICS delegation lobbies for alliance ahead of Moscow…
May 4, 2024
Ethiopia’s accession to BRICS last August has been followed by mixed signals both domestically and internationally as aspirations for wider global influence are pitted against concerns over Western backlash in the polarized reception.
Neither the federal government nor BRICS has yet provided a sweeping response to the queries, keeping the debate alive. Officials are hesitant to cut to the chase, and the public is left piecing together the vague details of the accession.
An illustrative example is the academic forum recently organized at the Ethiopian Skylight Hotel, where Ethiopian think tanks, academic and research institutions, and a BRICS expert council from Moscow gathered for roundtable talks.
The Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), which has been assigned as the focal agency for BRICS related forums, led the discussions. The forum of technical experts was the first of close to 200 rounds of academic discussions to be held within the BRICS framework before the next leaders summit takes place in Moscow later this month, according to Jafar Bedru, executive director at IFA.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has designated the institute to host five of the meetings,
The delegation of Russian experts is then scheduled to drop by Addis Ababa for a one-day academic forum after visits to Iran, China, and Brazil.
The busy schedule is an appraisal of requests, needs, and interests from member countries ahead of the annual summit, which will be hosted this year by the current chair of BRICS – Russia. The initial Ethiopia-Russia BRICS expert forum was also focused on identifying the docket items that the former would like to see prioritized in the coming summit.
“We can think of it as a survey of national interest where we indicate our preferred areas of work and what we would like to see in the spotlight. The general expert council presents its findings and recommendations for the leaders’ decision,” said Jafar.
He told The Reporter the dialogue during the consultation was focused on a list of sectoral items Ethiopia anticipates to get from the BRICS framework, as well as the country’s future role and activities within the alliance.
Victoria Panova, head of the BRICS Expert Council-Russia and vice rector of HSE University, led the discussions. Part of the talks were open to the media, but most of the discussions took place behind closed doors.
The portion that was open to the media consisted of a presentation on BRICS and the role of the expert council followed by a talk on cooperation on environmental protection and coping with climate change before it ended with a look at insights into preliminary results and potential ways forward.
Representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture then provided an overview of Ethiopian agriculture and what the sector expects to see from the global alliance. The following discussions on issues raised by the Ministry, as well as papers and presentations by experts from the Institute of Agricultural Research, Bio and emerging Technology Institute, and Space Science and Geospatial Institute, among others, were off limits to the media.
The beginning of this forum was marked by Panova, who elaborated on the evolution of BRICS, from conception to its current state of affairs. Her speech alluded to perceived misconceptions the western world has about BRICS and how the miscommunication has been detrimental to the alliance.
Talk has surrounded BRICS since before its official establishment was announced in June 2009, with many pundits debating over the notion that the alliance could pose a threat to western hegemony. The subject garnered a lot of attention even when its five founding members – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – were holding preliminary meetings about it.
Panova argues the misconceptions surrounding BRICS are rooted in a lack of understanding about its organizational structure.
“The common misunderstanding is that it is seen as an organization, it’s not. There have always been many talks about its being an economic gathering as well, but, I assure you it is not just only that,” she said. “BRICS is like an informal gathering or an informal union of the leaders or, sometimes as we in political science call it, it is a club. The format is very close to what we know as G-20 countries.”
Panova said the alliance is based on a comprehensive mechanism consisting of three pillars: Politics and security in global governance, economics and finance, and humanitarian cooperation.
The Russian delegation did not fail to point out that the total sum of BRICS member countries’ GDP is equivalent to 37 percent of global GDP and a full eight percentage points greater than the G7.
BRICS has invited Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the alliance, effective January 1, 2024, grasping a huge portion of the world population.
BRICS member countries account for 3.5 billion people or 45 percent of the world population. The consultation session in Addis revealed that as many as 40 countries have expressed interest in joining this informal group.
To experts all around the globe, this gathering matters because for one it includes major world powers like that of China and Russia as well as countries that are influential on their continent, such as South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia and Brazil.
On the issue of what value the memberships of Ethiopia and the other African states adds to BRICS, the head of the Russia BRICS council gave a crystal clear response to The Reporter.
“Ethiopia is the host of the headquarters of the African Union, so it could be termed as a gateway to the wider African way,” Panova said. “We have South Africa. Ethiopia and Egypt are now part of BRICS. This ensures that the interests of the African continent are put on the agenda at full capacity.”
She said BRICS is a way to explore economic terms as well, which could present new opportunities and ties for Ethiopia and other members.
However, those new ties are worrying for the Ethiopian Economics Association, which recently dispatched over 300 of its experts to conduct an assessment on the pros and cons of joining BRICS.
The survey, titled ‘Does Ethiopia Benefit From Joining the BRICS? Global Trends and Local Perceptions’ was published in December, and the majority of experts who took part indicated that Ethiopia would face problems from western backlash to the new alliance.
Experts caution the problems could include the refusal or cutback of new grants and loans, financial disbursement problems, pressure for currency devaluation, and substantial political repercussions and pressures that could result in lowered foreign investment.
“The west likes to dictate. So of course they feel it is a bit in opposition to the usual order. We know they don’t like BRICS because it provides an alternative,” said Panova. “We are not a counterbalance, but an alternative.”
Panova says “anything can be expected” when it comes to western disapproval of Ethiopia joining the club.
“But Ethiopia is in very good company now and is stronger for it. We are not at war with them, we are not countering them. We are together, but together we have this voice and that is why Ethiopia would be stronger in response to whatever backlash that may come,” said Panova.
Experts at the Economics Association also urge the government to carefully review the terms of its agreement with BRICS so as not to repeat past mistakes made with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The assessment notes that developing nations have been unable to get equitable access to finance with the Bretton Woods institutions.
“Governance of these financial institutions is controlled by a few member states. The governance problem in both WBG and the IMF is nearly similar,” the paper reads. “Top five and 20 countries, respectively, control 37 percent and close to 70 percent of the voting power (capital stock) in the WBG. On the other hand, 62 member states have only 30 percent of the total voting power, an average of 0.19 each.”
Jafar of the IFA says this will not be an issue with BRICS.
“An expert team composed of members of the Economics Association, macroeconomic specialists, and representatives of the ministries of Finance and Planning is working on ways to prevent this,” he said. The experts are working to protect Ethiopia’s economic interests in the BRICS framework, according to Jafar.
“We did not join this club just for the sake of leaving one global union and joining another. Our activity has got nothing to do with that, only expanding our alternatives,” he said.
Jafar mentioned the development bank under the works at BRICS as a potential source of finance for Ethiopia that does not compromise sovereignty or economic freedom.
Panova told The Reporter that BRICS does not feature a veto power system, arguing it offers equitable membership.
“We don’t talk about veto power here. One thing we have to understand about BRICS is that it’s not an organization. It’s an informal gathering of leaders, it is a club,” she said. “It’s not about sanctions or enforcement on members. It’s about consensus and agreeing on different things that would be acceptable to the other members.”
Panova argues veto power would encourage bureaucracy.
“I think the club mechanism is what works best for BRICS at the moment, and probably for more time to come,” she said.
Experts from the Economics Association warn that the National Bank of Ethiopia’s ability to achieve its predefined goals and objectives is lacking. The paper reveals that many of the experts who participated in the study had very low institutional trust and confidence in the NBE to be an active player within the BRICS group. They call for the central bank to reform and strengthen its capacity to a level comparable to financial institutions in other BRICS member states.
Economists want to see the NBE take reform measures in the development of financial markets and the banking system in Ethiopia. But there was no mention of representatives from the Ethiopian financial sector, be it private or government, during the BRICS forum this week.
The leaders summit later this month is also expected to have financial and monetary system reform as a key agenda.
“On the topic of financial and monetary system reform, we do not have specific specialists here, but this would be one of the most important topics that we will have to consider,” said Panova.
The Russian experts say the issue is a key part of cooperation between BRICS members.
“Back in 2023, at the annual summit, there was a decision to elaborate and work out a mechanism that would allow for unhampered trade, preferably national currencies between the BRICS countries but also beyond,” said Panova. “What is needed is a mechanism that would be safe, constructive and unhampered. So, it is very important that we join forces in order to put this issue forward.”
The Russian delegation says the main outcome of the document prepared by the experts concerning this issue would be the traditional recommendation put forward to BRICS leaders. The experts also disclosed that discussions had already started, and that they had held a number of rounds on the topic all based on documents provided by the expert community, which they did not make public.
The Institute of Foreign Affairs is finalizing the Ethiopian BRICS engagement strategy, according to Jafar.
“It’s awaiting final review and approval,” he said.