In Depth The blurry race to end Sudan’s bloody war
The blurry race to end Sudan’s bloody war
July 13, 2024
This week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) became the first head of government to visit Sudan since a deadly conflict broke out there in April 2023. He made the trip on the eve of an African Union (AU) led peace dialogue taking place in Addis Ababa. Meetings on the launch of the Inter-Sudanese Political Dialogue process began at AU headquarters on July 10, 2024, and are scheduled to last five days, according to the AU Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) department.
On July 9, the PM met with Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sovereign Council, in the city of Port Sudan, on the coast of the Red Sea, where the SAF is currently based.
After a warm welcome by Al-Burhan, the two leaders sat down behind closed doors, reportedly discussing the ongoing conflict and possible paths to peace. Al-Burhan briefed Abiy about “the rebellion of the terrorist Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia against the state and its institutions. He accused the RSF of committing atrocities against Sudanese civilians, destroying state infrastructure, and targeting national institutions,” according to a statement issued by the Sovereign Council.
The statement called Abiy’s visit a “testament to the depth of relations” between Ethiopia and Sudan. The visit was short, and the PM expressed a sense of solidarity with the Sudanese people before departing just a few hours after he had landed.
“True friends appear in times of hardship,” said Abiy.
Some political analysts are not sure what to make of the trip to Sudan, but Foreign Minister Taye Atskeselassie (Amb.) maintains the visit was aimed at rekindling the prospect of peace talks in Sudan, which have been elusive despite many attempts over the last 16 months.
“Prime Minister Abiy went to Sudan to table a peace proposal as a good neighbor and a lover of peace.Many peace efforts have failed. If there are so many initiatives [for peace], it is difficult to attain it. The conflict, if protracted, will affect the Horn region. A lot of people will also suffer. The warring parties must understand this. They cannot establish a government unless they create a stable and peaceful Sudan. Al-Burhan accepted. Such diplomacy and initiation of peace talks requires determined leadership. Only the brave can go for peace. The visit will also strengthen the long relations between Sudan and Ethiopia. There are a lot of conflicts in the Horn, and there are a lot of forces fueling the Horn conflicts. You can find very few friends during war, but you can have a lot of friends during peace. So far, several parties initiated several peace talk initiatives between the two warring parties. But all of them failed. Abiy’s visit will give new momentum to those initiatives,” said the Minister.
Still, relations between the two countries have faced some turbulence over the last couple of years. A visit to Addis Ababa from Hemedti, head of the RSF, in December 2023 ruffled the feathers of Al-Burhan and members of the Sudanese Sovereign Council. The border dispute over the Al-Fashaga territory, which remains occupied by forces led by Al-Burhan, is another point of unease between Khartoum and Addis Ababa.
PM Abiy’s cozy and opaque relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also been an issue. Reports, including from UN experts, allege the UAE is providing military and financial support to the RSF. The UAE denies this, but the country’s close ties with Abiy led Al-Burhan to accuse the Ethiopian government of backing the RSF. One of Al-Burhan’s deputies reportedly alleged that Ethiopian troops are supporting the RSF.
Abiy’s visit came one month following an RSF attack on the southeastern state of Sennar, which is located near the Ethiopian border. Some analysts warn that this bodes ill for Ethiopia. They warn that if the conflict engulfs Gedaref, which is closest to Ethiopia and hosts over 600,000 IDPs and tens of thousands of Ethiopian refugees, the impact on Ethiopia will be significant.
The RSF’s growing proximity to the Ethiopian border is followed by reports that Fano, armed forces fighting the federal government in the Amhara Regional State, have entered the disputed Al-Fashaga territory. It is a development that could spiral into a clash between Ethiopian and Sudanese forces as Abiy Ahmed’s government considers Fano a major security threat. A potential coalition between Fano and forces from Sudan could pose a serious threat to the Ethiopian government.
During an address to Parliament last week, Abiy said his government has no intentions to use force in the territorial dispute with Sudan.
“The people of Sudan are peace loving people. They are in conflict. We do not want to take advantage and seize the disputed land. We are waiting with patience until the conflict is over and Sudan stabilizes. Then we will solve the border case peacefully,” he told MPs.
Pundits and analysts say it is difficult to see how Abiy can be a neutral mediator in the Sudan conflict. Al-Burhan has previously accused not only the Ethiopian government but all governments in the region of being partial and biased. The mistrust has led Sudan’s warring parties to look to peace initiatives and talks facilitated by Cairo, Jeddah, and the like.
Abiy, however, begs to differ.
“We have been impartial. Our priority is to end the conflict peacefully and ensure peace for the peace loving people of Sudan. We remain neutral,” he told Parliament.
The AU has not yet made it clear whether Abiy will be part of its in-house peace talks. The task of facilitating face-to-face talks between Sudan’s warring forces has been placed on the shoulders of Ugandan President Museveni by the AU Peace and Security Council.
“The AU stresses that an acceptable ceasefire can only be reached through direct negotiations between the key actors in the war and, in this regard, directs the Chairperson of the AU Commission to urgently set up a PSC Ad-hoc Presidential Committee comprising one Head of State and Government from each region of the Continent and led by H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda, and Chairperson of the PSC for June 2024, to facilitate face–to–face engagements between the leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, at the shortest possible time,” reads communiqué from the Council released last month.
It also warns external forces who are suspected of fueling Sudan’s protracted conflict to back off. The AU says it is working to identify the depth and nature of external influences in the war in Sudan.
“[The AU] Condemns all forms of external interference, which is fueling the conflict, in flagrant violation of all relevant PSC Communiques and UN Security Council Resolutions, in particular Resolution 1556 (2004), and while reiterating the demand that they cease doing so immediately, demands that all actors including, states and non-state entities, to stop any military and financial support to the belligerents that is further worsening the conflict in Sudan; in this regard, directs the PSC Sub Committee on Sanctions to liaise with the AU Commission and the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) to identify all external actors supporting the warring factions militarily, financially and politically, as well as make proposals on how to contain each of them within a stipulated time frame not exceeding three (3) months from June 2024,” reads the communiqué.
Reports allege that the UAE, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the Wagner group, and several other external forces, including Ukrainian forces, are engaging in the Sudan conflict.
Some sources say Abiy traveled to Port Sudan after securing Museveni’s nod. But international media reports that before departing to Port Sudan, Abiy had a telephone conversation with the US envoy to Sudan, who in turn spoke with the Saudi deputy foreign minister, who recently visited Sudan.
AUPSC’s June 5 communiqué also states Sudan’s warring parties agreed to political dialogue by this July, both in Addis Ababa and Cairo, under the AU/IGAD-led Inclusive Dialogue.
Al-Burhan has been refusing to engage in talks with RSF, unless RSF fulfills the terms of a previous agreement from May 2023, which demands the withdrawal of RSF fighters from urban areas to designated areas outside cities. There are no hints as to whether Al-Burhan has changed his position or is willing to sit for AU-brokered peace talks.
For Constantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), former AU anti-graft commissioner, though the purpose of the PM visit is not clear, it can be taken as a good peace initiative.
“It is good to make such a peace effort. Sudan is our neighbor. Plus when the transitional government was formed in Sudan, Ethiopia played a role. The conflict in Sudan seems to be expanding towards Ethiopia’s border. The purpose of the visit is not clear but everybody is expecting it is about peace talk. If it is a peace initiative, it is a good move. Ethiopia is the seat of AU and taking the initiative is good. Unless there are other reasons behind the visit,” said Constantinos.
He argues that any efforts at peace are better than none in the face of one of the worst conflicts in modern history. Constantinos urges the condemnation of acts of violence committed by both sides, particularly the RSF’s tactics of laying siege to cities and towns and starving their residents to death. He observes the acts are similar to the Janjaweed militia’s arbitrary civilian killings.
Constantinos also notes that efforts for peace talks in Sudan have been unsuccessful due to the involvement of several external interests, which makes it difficult to design inclusive and impartial mediation.
“Unfortunately, there are several peace initiatives for Sudan but nobody is disclosing why they are failing. All the peace initiatives over Sudan, including the PM’s move now, are not transparent and the people of Sudan are in the dark. What are the agreements and what are the disagreements? The peace initiative is good for Ethio-Sudan bilateral relations. The people of Sudan need humanitarian support, at least. Why are none of the peace talks resulting in a ceasefire agreement?” he asked.
Constantinos rejects the idea that Abiy and his government have a bias towards Hemedti and the RSF.
“Hemedti visited not only Ethiopia but Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea and other countries. Since Hemedti leads one of the warring forces, he has decisive say in Sudan’s fate of war or peace. Ethiopia cannot ignore Hemedti, whether Al-Burhan is happy or not. As an impartial mediator, PM Abiy must keep good but balanced relations with both Hemedti and Al-Burhan. Ethiopia must be able to create good relations with both the warring groups in order to realize a peace agreement,” said Constantinos.
In the meantime, many expect to see a ceasefire and unhindered humanitarian supply agreements come out of the ongoing AU/IGAD led political dialogue in Addis Ababa.
It is absolutely necessary for an estimated 10 million people who have been forcibly displaced in Sudan since the war broke out, according to UNHCR. The agency reports that while about 7.7 million people have been displaced internally, more than two million have fled to neighboring countries – including Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic and Ethiopia.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the UN hunger monitoring system, said Sudan is facing the worst food crisis in its history, with more than 755,000 people facing “catastrophe” in 10 out of 18 states, the most severe level of extreme hunger. The conflict in the country of 48 million people has so far killed tens of thousands of people, with some estimates placing the death toll as high as 150,000, according to US envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello.