https://horseedmedia.net/egypt-djibouti-offer-to-support-new-somalia-peacekeeping-force-392120
In Depth Will Somalia replace Ethiopia with Egypt in new AU peacekeeping mission
August 10, 2024
AUSSOM slated to begin January 2025
Fears of a security vacuum in Somalia have intensified ahead of the August 12, 2024, deadline for the UN Security Council’s authorization of a peacekeeping mission in the troubled coastal nation. The Council voted in June to extend the lifespan of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) until the coming week, but the fast-approaching end date has been preceded by a slew of deadly asymmetric attacks from Al-Shabaab over the past several months, including a blast on a Mogadishu beach that killed dozens last week.
Although the gradual withdrawal of peacekeeping troops has been ongoing for almost a year now, many fear that an abrupt and uncoordinated exit strategy for the peace mission could enable Al-Shabaab to form a Taliban-esque government in Somalia, further destabilizing the already unstable Horn region. Al-Shabaab’s ties to Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and, more lately, Houthi forces pose a serious security threat to maritime transport on the Red Sea as well as the wider Gulf region.
This week, the African Union (AU) adopted a new resolution that envisages installing a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia; dubbed the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The organization wants to see it replace ATMIS in January 2025 in much the same way that ATMIS replaced the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) in 2022 after 15 years of operation.
The decision to form the third and latest AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia came at the behest of the Somali government and following intensive discussions between the AU, UN, EU, ATMIS, and other stakeholders including Turkey and the UAE.
The AU had sent a team of nine experts to Somalia last month to assess the security situation before endorsing AUSSOM. The delegation also took part in discussions about the size, mandate, and exit strategy of the post-ATMIS mission, according to reports. ATMIS troops are slated to exit Somalia entirely by December 2024.
“The mandate of the post-ATMIS mission should respond to Somalia’s political and security realities and provide realistic timelines tailored to Somalia’s requirements and ATMIS aspiration for a smooth, orderly, successful, and clearly benchmarked incremental transition of security responsibility to the Somali security forces,” reads an AU statement.
The AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) disclosed further details about AUSSOM and its operational modality this week. The mission will include security and political mandates to strengthen the Somali government, but is slated primarily to protect strategic population centers, UN facilities, and key government installations. However, the Council is busy compiling a report on the successes and failures of previous missions in Somalia before making a final decision on the details of the latest endeavor.
The report is expected in September, and will include the list of AU member countries willing to contribute troops under the new mission. According to a communiqué issued by the AUPSC this week, Egypt and Djibouti have offered to be part of AUSSOM.
“The AUPSC welcomes the offer made by Egypt and Djibouti to contribute to the elements of the AUSSOM and encourages other AU Member States in a position to do so, to contribute to AUSSOM,” it reads.
Djibouti is ready to deploy a Formed Police Unit “as soon as possible,” according to the Council.
Some reports indicate member countries from east and southern Africa will be contributing troops to the new missions, but no official list has been published yet. Although Ethiopia has been a pillar of the past two peacekeeping missions in Somalia, recent disputes with Mogadishu following an agreement between the breakaway Somaliland and Addis Ababa have cast doubts on its potential involvement in AUSSOM.
During a recent interview with local media, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, Somalia’s National Security Advisor to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, stated that Ethiopian peacekeeping troops who stay in Somalia beyond December 2024 would be considered “occupiers.”
The official hinted that the Somali government might not be willing to host Ethiopian troops as part of the third peacekeeping mission in Somalia since 2007.
A few weeks ago, the Somali government also claimed security forces had seized weapons that it alleges had originated in Ethiopia. Some reports claim the weapons were being supplied to Somali intelligence while others allege they were en route to Al-Shabaab.
The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denied all allegations.
“Ethiopia is closely following the repeated provocative statements by the government of Somalia. Contrary to the baseless accusations of the government of Somalia, Ethiopia has been sacrificing in the service of peace and stability of the brotherly people of Somalia for more than three decades. Ethiopia is thus dismayed by the unwarranted and irresponsible statements made by senior officials of the government of Somalia on various occasions attempting to deny the critical role of Ethiopia in helping to rebuild the state of Somalia,” reads a Ministry statement released on July 26, 2024.
Analysts and observers see the contradiction in Somalia’s push for the withdrawal of ATMIS troops and its request for a new peacekeeping mission to replace it. Some insiders see the move as Mogadishu’s way of expelling Ethiopian troops from Somali territory and ushering in a new peacekeeping mission that excludes Ethiopia. Some observers claim Mogadishu plans to replace Ethiopian troops with soldiers from Egypt.
“Ethiopia’s troop contribution into AUSSOM will not be decided solely by the interests of the Somalia government. It is a decision that will be made by the AU, UN and IGAD. Whether the Somali government likes it or not, Ethiopian troops will be part of the new mission. Al-Shabaab is a threat to Ethiopia, too. If Somalia allows Egypt’s troops in Somalia, it is a grave concern for Ethiopia. It will jeopardize Ethiopia’s efforts to gain access to the Red Sea, apart from concerns arising from the GERD,” said an official close to the issue.
Some observers fear Mogadishu could go as far as forging an alliance with Al-Shabaab as the two develop a common position towards Ethiopia.
“Since the Somaliland MoU, President Hassen Sheikh has indicated signs of negotiating with Al-Shabaab. The President might negotiate if the group threatens his power. This cannot stop the MoU, but it will exacerbate the situation into clashes and further crises,” said an analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Financing AUSSOM is also a concern. The two preceding AU peacekeeping missions were supported mainly through external contributions in light of the AU’s chronic budgetary resource mobilization deficits. However, following COVID-19 and the outbreak of the Ukraine war, external financial contributions have been on the decline.
The EU has contributed over 4.3 billion euros to Somalia since 2009, according to data from the UN and AU, however, its representatives have recently urged other parties to share the financial burden for the upcoming post-ATMIS mission.
The call is helped by a resolution passed by the UN Security Council in December that seeks to enable the AUPSC to access UN-assessed contributions for peace operations in Africa. It proposes to redistribute the burden of financing peacekeeping missions in Africa whereby the UN would contribute 75 percent and the remaining 25 percent would be jointly mobilized by the AU and UN. The AU and the Somali government have expressed hope that AUSSOM will be the first to access UN funding under the new resolution.
The resolution offers relief, but concerns linger. The US and other Security Council members are reportedly reserved about another full-fledged peacekeeping mission in Somalia under the new resolution, calling instead for a more narrow mission with a defined timeline. There are also concerns over a lack of clarity on the modalities of implementing the resolution, according to reports.
AUSSOM was chosen out of a possible three options for a post-ATMIS mission in Somalia. The first option, which was endorsed, involves an AU-led mission that would principally be made up of the ATMIS troops with any additional capabilities that the mandate of the mission requires. There are indications that the leadership of the Somali government would like to see a change in the composition of the post-ATMIS mission, probably replacing Ethiopia with another nation, according to sources.
The second option is a regional security framework which would involve an intervention force from neighboring states, but this alternative poses challenges in ensuring accountability and transparency and was dropped because it may also not qualify for UN support under the new resolution.
The third option is an AU-UN hybrid mission, which reports indicate, could be challenging to implement due to issues of command and control.
“The post-ATMIS mission must be given a strong political mandate, with its scope, size, posture, composition, and duration aligning with the country’s security threats,” reads an AUPSC communiqué issued on June 21, 2024.
Why AMISOM and ATMIS failed to dismantle Al-Shabaab
When AMISOM was reconfigured into ATMIS in 2022, the plan was to hand over all operations to Somali security forces by December 2024. However, the phased ATMIS withdrawal and the escalating attacks from Al-Shabaab prove these security forces are not yet up to the task.
Ambassador Mohamed El-Amine Souef, special representative of the AU Commission Chairperson for Somalia, told the UN Security Council in June that Al-Shabaab is gaining momentum.
“The recent complex attack on Somali security forces in the El-Dheer – Galmudug region and the mortar attack on the ATMIS camp in Baidoa, Southwest State, is a reminder to us that Al-Shabaab remains resilient. The group still retains the ability to conduct devastating attacks, including employing asymmetric tactics, and organizing complex operations on civilians and security targets,” he told the assembly in New York.
He urged the Council for political, logistical, and financial support for an AU-led post-ATMIS mission.
“The ongoing efforts to address the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia are commendable and should be encouraged by the international community. I believe that a peaceful and comprehensive dialogue is the best way to enhance sustainable stability and cooperation in the region,” said the Ambassador.
A research paper published by Henock Getachew at Washington D.C.’s Georgetown University a few weeks ago indicates that both AMISOM and ATMIS faced difficulties in adapting to Al-Shabaab’s mutating nature as well as suffered from financial deficits.
According to the study, AMISOM was designed to address a direct military threat originating from Al-Shabaab. However, this circumstance changed due to the transformation of the organization’s modus operandi.
“Al Shabaab [had] evolved from being primarily a military threat to a more asymmetric and hybrid one, using insurgency tactics of a terrorist-cum-organized criminal group,” it reads.
ATMIS was designed to counter this, built as a mobile, agile force capable of rapid deployment and quick reaction, according to the study.
“Unfortunately, ATMIS has encountered challenges, hindering its ability to achieve its mandate. First, international partners such as the European Union, United Kingdom, the United States, and the United Nations have not consistently provided sufficient financial resources due to funding shortfalls and delays,” reads the study.
It indicates that financial issues prevented ATMIS from carrying out its stated goals to enhance governance and provide public goods and services to communities.