David G. Haglund through an article edited by Encyclopedia Britannica explains that “an alliance in international relations means an agreement between one or more states in case of war.” This has been the case throughout history and occurs when some countries combine their defenses to face off a determined enemy nation, from the old Indian empires like the Chandragupta to medieval European countries to the contemporary alliances like NATO.
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, appears to be pushing new alliances in the Horn of Africa region where Egypt and Türkiye seem to be coming together to support Somalia in its hour of need. The blatant aggression of the Prime Minster includes not only amassing huge forces on the provisional border between Ethiopia and Somalia but also his seemingly adamant proposition to acquire a sea outlet in Somali waters by any means – through persuasion or by force if necessary as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed clearly threatens almost every time he speaks.
This is a dangerous moment in the Horn of Africa, which although conflicted as it is, was relieved from nations fighting each other for some years now. The new alliance element is an addition, which can only make things worse. The Ethiopian Administration is not sitting back either. It has already enlisted friendly countries like the Gulf Emirate of the UAE as a support and a financier of its activities in the Horn of Africa.
This may attract still others such as Eritrea, Sudan and perhaps the other GCC countries or at least some of them into the fray. Obviously, the major powers of the world who all have strategic interests in the region will not stand by, with hands folded on their chests watching the dire stressful situation unfolding itself in front of them. The Americans have already extended the sanctions on Ethiopia for another year, to restrain it from embarking on a thankless adventure that will endanger the security of the region and that of America, in the process.
All this doom could be avoided but only if and only if the leaders of the Horn of Africa States region revisit their wrong current calculations. It is one giant geostrategically located unit, overlooking one of the main shipping waterways of the world. The region also owns a substantial sub-soil wealth and a large blue economic potential. They could, therefore, be an influential economic partner with the rest of the world. But this could only happen if the region was organized into an integrated economic unit.
Perhaps, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia should start it, since he started the current turmoil, by reversing himself and apologizing to his people and those of the region. We know this would be a difficult proposition for an African leader, but it is the best way any leader can earn credit, and this may redeem his tainted Nobel Peace Prize in the place of justifying his wrongful approach to easing any problems the landlocked nature of his country, may pose economically.
The other leaders of the region should gracefully accept the Prime Minister of Ethiopia and bring him back to the fold of the Horn of Africa States region. It is a region that should look carefully around it and its neighborhood.
On the other side of the Red Sea is the GCC countries, an alliance of Arab countries that have extremely significant interests both economical and political on the region. Although they may have their differences, they all belong to the same club.
The Swahili world in the South, in East Africa, have also created an equally strong organization of their own, the EAC, consisting now of eight countries, significantly endowed with mineral riches and a large population of some 300 million people. The EAC is encroaching on the region and has already acquired Somalia as a member. Should any other member join them, then the opportunity of the Horn of Africa States region seeing the light of day, and stand on its own, could be lost or at least delayed for a longer period, than is really necessary.
The Horn of Africa States region owns a third of the known uranium reserves, a substantially large but untapped hydrocarbon reserves both onshore and offshore, gold, phosphates, iron ore, cobalt, lithium, and other minerals needed for the technologies of today and the future. Should they be better organized, instead of warring against each other, the region stands a better chance of redeeming itself from the chaos of the last three to four decades and relieving the world of its burdens of poverty and constant distress.
The large landmass and the equally large maritime exclusive economic zone of the region could also be a source of food for itself and the rest of the world instead of wars and chaos, should the region deploy professionally organized production processes.
The region should take advantage of the many other resources, instead of wasting them through wars and fighting, fulfilling the inflated egos of some of the leaders. It has a large human resources base, which could both be a significant consumer base and/or labor force. It is the source of the Blue Nile and owns an already constructed large dam, the GERD which can produce cheap energy for the region. This could be complimented through the large other potential energy sources of the region in terms of wind, solar and geothermal energies, of which the region has extensive abundance.
It is why there is no need for wars in the region. On reading about wars and peace, I have come across this impressive statement from the Sustainable Human on “A Path Away From War: The Science Of Peace Systems:
“Many people think, “There always has been war and there always will be war.” But scientific evidence shows that some societies have successfully shunned war by creating peace systems.”
The region should, perhaps, shun wars. They have seen enough of the destruction of wars and they should learn from these miseries that there is always a better way – that of peace. We must, therefore, urge the leaders of the region to make peace and not wars.
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Dr. Suleiman Walhad
Dr. Suleiman Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at suleimanwalhad@yahoo.com.