In Depth What will US policy mean for Ethiopian interests under second Trump administration?
November 9, 2024
This week saw Donald Trump emerge victorious in the US presidential elections, beating his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris by a fairly wide margin. The voting has also handed the Republican party control of the Senate and House, in addition to the Oval Office.
The developments portend a recalibration of US foreign policy when Trump moves back into the White House in January. What the shift will mean for Ukraine, Gaza, and other geopolitical hotspots remains to be seen. The repercussions for US-Ethiopia relations, and for Africa as a whole, are also uncertain.
Experts who spoke to The Reporter say they are watching closely to see how the change in leadership might alter the trajectory set by the Biden administration on issues related to Ethiopian interests. They observe that even the slightest policy shift could have significant implications for both nations.
The stakes were perhaps on the mind of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) when he posted a congratulatory message to Donald Trump on his X (Twitter) account shortly after the election results were announced on Wednesday.
“Congratulations to President Donald Trump on your election victory and comeback,” reads Abiy’s tribute. “I look forward to working together to further strengthen the relationship between our two countries during your term.”
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Abiy took office in 2018, during Trump’s previous presidential term.
A senior expert working at the International Labor Organization (ILO) foresees that Trump’s re-election is much more likely to affect global, non-profit organizations before governments.
“It is prominent international organizations like our own that will face serious problems, since Trump will cut donations. Republicans and Trump have no interest in supplying funds to NGOs, CSOs, and others,” the expert told The Reporter.
Constantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), a public policy advisor and former AU anti-graft commissioner, suggests policy shifts under the second Trump administration will likely depend on “how Ethiopia handles its internal affairs, particularly in relation to human rights issues.”
He urges the Ethiopian government to take the lead in aligning itself to the expectations while reconciling American policy towards the country’s best interests.
“Just like the agreement with the IMF, where we convinced them of our financial sector reforms, Ethiopians should lead and align ourselves with American policy towards us,” he told The Reporter. “If the Ethiopian government can address internal issues and conflicts through peaceful negotiation just like it did with the TPLF forces, they will shape the policies that affect us.”
Others say it is still too early to determine the direction of policy changes under Trump’s new administration.
“We are still in the early stages in terms of assessing whether the new administration will adopt different strategic policies towards Ethiopia,” Commander Abebe Muluneh, director of the IGAD Security Sector Program (SSP), told The Reporter.
Nevertheless, Trump’s previous stance on Africa, marked by controversial remarks such as referring to African nations as “shithole countries,” cuts to funding, and restrictive immigration policies, remains a legacy of his first term in office.
His initial policies in the Horn of Africa, particularly towards Ethiopia, also left an impression, notably when he withheld aid over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute.
Despite this, Constantinos argues that “Republicans are better candidates for Africa.”
He pointed to the Bush administration’s USD 100 billion donation to Africa in the fight against HIV/AIDS during the Republican president’s tenure.
Constantinos sees that Republicans generally focus on sustainable initiatives that benefit African nations.
“Democrats tend to concentrate on democracy-building, human rights, and education development,” he said. “These three aspects are the core of the Democrats’ policy towards the African continent.”
Constantinos observes that whether Trump’s approach will significantly favor Ethiopia or not depends on his strategic priorities in Africa and specifically towards Ethiopia.
However, he pointed out that policy decisions regarding Africa are not solely dependent on Trump’s presidency. According to him, policy changes ultimately stem from Congress rather than the president alone.
Constantinos also remarked that Trump’s new administration might adjust its Africa policy to “counter China’s growing influence in the region”.
Regarding Ethiopia’s interests, Constantinos believes the situation is “too complicated.”
“With the Biden administration still in place and receiving consistent reports of human rights concerns from the State Department, calls for reform will continue,” Constantinos said. “If internal conflict and unrest in Ethiopia persist, the demand for addressing human rights issues will surely continue. However, with over a century of bilateral relations between the two nations, I believe the Trump administration will be more supportive than it was before.”
However, he noted that Democrats traditionally refrain from intervening in the internal political affairs of other nations to the same degree as Republicans do.
Constantinos cited recent events where many Ethiopian diaspora members opposed the Democratic nominee, viewing the Biden administration as insufficiently responsive to ongoing conflicts, especially in the Amhara region, and earlier destruction in Tigray and other regions.
According to him, the loss of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) eligibility also contributed to frustrations among the Ethiopian diaspora.
As AGOA eligibility is essential for Ethiopia’s export-driven economy, Constantinos stated that the Trump administration might consider reinstating Ethiopia’s status, contingent upon the Ethiopian government’s efforts to foster peace and promote good governance as factors necessary for the initiative’s continuation.
“To rejoin the initiative, it’s crucial for us to make progress in our internal affairs and to actively implement the Pretoria Agreement,” he told The Reporter.
The preferential trade regime enables African countries to export over seven thousand item types duty free to the US. Textile and apparel exporters had been the primary beneficiaries of AGOA in Ethiopia before the Biden administration delisted the country following the outbreak of the northern war.
Abebe cautions that it is too soon to distinguish policy shifts between the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration.
“It is too early to determine if the Trump administration will implement a policy shift,” he told The Reporter. “To establish a clear understanding of their policy differences, it is better to observe the policies that Trump will enact both domestically and internationally.”
Another factor that may take a significant turn under the new US administration is the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa and the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and breakaway Somaliland.
Reports indicate that the signing of the MoU between Ethiopia and the self-declared independent region of Somaliland has recently led to a tripartite alignment among Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, which presents a new challenge for Ethiopia’s regional diplomacy.
In this context, experts note that Trump’s previous engagement in Ethiopia-Egypt tensions over the GERD reflected a preference for direct involvement, occasionally aligning with Egyptian interests.
For Constantinos, timing and context play crucial roles in such situations. He said that any policy shifts could depend on Egypt’s relationship with the American government and its other allies.
“Although the US provides over USD 1.5 billion in aid to Ethiopia, it’s important to remain vigilant and to shape our strategic relationship with them while addressing internal issues,” he told The Reporter, emphasizing that regional tensions could also be managed by strengthening diplomatic efforts.
Nevertheless, Abebe argued that it is difficult to predict whether the Trump administration will take a similar approach towards Ethiopia on the GERD issue. He said it is essential to allow time for the new administration to assume office and observe how the situation develops.
“Whether or not such measures shift significantly in Ethiopia’s favor depends on Trump’s strategic priorities in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. So, I would say it’s important to wait and assess the future,” he said.
While experts like Constantinos and Abebe have expressed different perspectives on the potential policy shifts, both agree on the importance of a strategic approach in managing US-Ethiopian relations.
Ultimately, Ethiopia’s path forward may hinge on its ability to address internal issues, foster diplomatic ties, and engage constructively with American priorities. Additionally, with the evolving geopolitical and economic realities, all eyes will be on how these two nations, rooted in a longstanding bilateral relationship, can navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.