Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Credit: Turkish government photo.
The Horn of Africa States region continues its traditional presence in the international media, with major, middle and regional powers all trying to find and make their presence in the region felt, not only through military presence but also sometimes at the highest levels of diplomacy, including presidential visits to the region, and even many paid lobbyists in the United States other countries getting involved in encouraging their governments to collapse Africa’s sacrosanct rule on the intangibility of the borders when each country was admitted to the United Nations Organization, as a member after independence, to avoid chaos and massive disruption in the “relative” tranquility of the continent in that regard.
Although presidential and monarchic visits remain sparse and spread apart, they still leave their marks and footprints in the generally confused, conflict-prone, and chaotic region. The current state of the region remains boiling at high temperatures and involves mostly Ethiopia’s aggression against Somalia and its determination to break up the country and seize still more Somali territories and ignoring all international norms in the process.
Somalis have throughout centuries resisted Ethiopian-cum-Abyssinian aggression, but it has been always unfortunate to find truly supportive good friends, while Ethiopia always played the victimhood syndrome, although it was always the aggressor. A read of the Abyssinian expansion at the end of the nineteenth/early twentieth centuries into other nations’ lands and how its rulers played the victimhood syndrome of a Christian nation surrounded by savages, meaning the Muslims of the region, and all the conflicts that have ravaged the region since then, evidence the same victimhood syndrome.
It is most unfortunate that Türkiye, which is considered a close ally of Somalia played into the victimhood of Ethiopia and agreed to mediate between the two countries when there was no need for such mediation, and buying into the falsehood claim that being a large country they must have access to a sea. How many other large countries of the world are landlocked? In Africa alone, there is Mali, Niger and Chad and others such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Sudan and still others. What is special about Ethiopia that makes it to have access to a sea? Ethiopia should simply have been told to stay away from other countries’ internal affairs and more specifically Somalia’s, which has a long history of conflict with it involving land grabs by Ethiopia and especially since the late nineteenth century.
Somalia might be a typical fragile state, but its people and territory are sacrosanct under international law. They would not welcome their friends entrusted to help them to protect their lands, seas and airspace, to help sign away parts of these for usage by an enemy nation of both the country and people, which has not yet found peaceful co-existence with it. It is reported that the Ethiopians want the ancient port of Zeila and a land corridor from there into Ethiopia, rejecting the port of Tadjorah offered by the Republic of Djibouti.
Ethiopia has not yet come to live with the fact that it is a landlocked country under international law. They should! A much bigger economy like Switzerland is a landlocked country, which negates that for its economy to grow it needs an access to a sea. It has borders with four neighboring countries, who all have agreed to provide commercial accessibility to it. They include Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and, indeed, Somalia. This is perfectly fine and feasible.
However, what is not acceptable is to have Ethiopia build a navy and naval forces for usage in the ports of others, which simply translates into ownership of these ports. This is not what Somalis would accept and neither would the countries of Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti.
The painful relations between Somalia and Ethiopia do not warrant and would not allow an Ethiopian invading naval forces in Somali waters and this is the crux of the matter, which many have, so far, failed to realize.
President Erdogan will be welcome to Somalia always, as he still remains the only international leader who found the courage to visit it, at its nadir moment, along with all his family members. That will never be forgotten, and President Erdogan will always be remembered by Somalis for that rare moment!
The recent accord engineered by Erdogan’s government to make peace between Somalia and Ethiopia is, however, another matter altogether. It is not accepted by many Somalis, as Ethiopia claims to have finally secured accessibility to a sea with help of Türkiye mediation. Did Türkiye sell off to Ethiopia in the place of Somalia? What about the trust that Somalia’s government and people put in Türkiye to protect the seas of Somalia and, in return, to benefit from the resources of its marine space? If there was no such aggression, Somalia would not have sought the help of Türkiye or for that matter any other country either.
The beautiful words in the Ankara Declaration that the two countries “reaffirmed their respect and commitment to one another’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity,” appears hollow if the public talks of Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed when talking to his people after the Ankara meeting, is to be taken on face value.
However, the above reaffirmation of the sovereignty, unity, independence, and territorial integrity issue is overshadowed by article (e) of the Declaration, which states, “They acknowledged the potentially diverse benefits that could be derived from Ethiopia’s assured access to and from the sea, whilst respecting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.” “Assured access” can only mean Ethiopian naval forces or military forces to protect whatever accessibility is being referred to in this paragraph, as Somalia, at the moment, is not in a position to make such assurance, unless it again appeals to Türkiye, burdening it more.
Many Somalis now suspect that Türkiye appears to have become a front for Ethiopia and are disappointed. No doubt, the contract for building the port, wherever it is in Somalia, should it ever happen, will be given to Türkiye and the funding will come from the forces behind the curtains who are pushing Ethiopia to make and continually repeat the fake claim that it does not have an accessibility to a sea. It does!
Somalis understand that President Erdogan visited Ethiopia in 2005, the first of his visits to the continent. Somalis are also aware that Türkiye has large investments in Ethiopia reported to be in the region of above two billion United States Dollars through some 200 Turkish companies. They are also aware that Türkiye sells arms and especially military drones, which helped Ethiopia fight off the Tigrayans during 2020/2021 war in that state and currently in the ongoing Ethiopian wars against its own other states of Amhara and Oromia, within Ethiopia.
It is also understood by Somalis that Türkiye may be only eying the large market, which Ethiopia presents. Somalis have not forgotten the Ex-Soviet Union for which Somalia was instrumental in introducing it to Sub-Saharan Africa and which finally betrayed it, moving on to Ethiopia. Is Türkiye undertaking a similar process? This remains to be seen. It is hoped that Türkiye will not follow the steps of that ex-major country, which no longer exists. A Somali curse may have caught with it.
However, Türkiye’s interest is even more pronounced in Somalia at present, where it manages both Mogadishu’s seaport and airport, a hospital and is currently involved in exploring for oil and gas offshore Somalia in the Indian Ocean. Its oil and gas exploration vessel Oruc Reis is currently in Somali waters. Other reports also denote that Türkiye will build a spaceport for Türkiye’s Aerospatiale business, both commercial and missile development, in Somalia.
It would be a mind-boggling for any country to balance and ride two stubborn horses at the same time. And Türkiye will be no different in this respect. Many Turkish pundits generally assume that they have, somehow, lessened the temperatures of the heat of the Horn of Africa States region. However, many of the steps are not fully disclosed or debated and, therefore, only help create more suspicions on the part of the people especially in Somalia, the weaker link in the equation.
It would be unwise on the part of Türkiye to deceive a fragile country and its population such as Somalia represents, which has sought its help, just to gain a market, as apparently Ethiopia with its fake claims of a large population. No census have ever been made of the population of Ethiopia. It could be larger or much smaller than the 130 million they claim.
In an article in Hiiraan Online, a Somali online magazine, dated December 23, 2024, and entitled “The Ankara Declaration: A step forward or a betrayal? Somali public’s perspectives” byAbdirahim Mohamed, a researcher based in Ankara, it is noted that one of the main weaknesses of the Ankara Declaration include its “Failing to mention Ethiopia rescinding the illegal MoU seemed troublesome and betrayal to the Somalis as well as a future challenge to the talks.” These are heavy words that point to the truth as Ethiopia has not, since January 1st, 2024, rescinded that illegal MoU.
This is food for thought for the Türkiye Cumhuriyet and its leadership.
Dr. Suleiman Walhad
Dr. Suleiman Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at suleimanwalhad@yahoo.com.