March 11, 2025
Borkena
Toronto – It has been weeks since key politicians from the Tigray region of Ethiopia have been warning about the inevitability of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Now, the worry is not whether war will break out. The worry is about whether it will be a long one and if Tigray will certainly be the theater of war.
Tsadkan Gebretensae, Ethiopia’s former Defense Chief of Staff who is also considered to be one of the leading military strategists in Tigray, on Tuesday published an article on African Report in which he stated not only that war is inevitable but also that it could break out at any moment. Tsadkan is currently in the Tigray region and seems to have the opportunity to get firsthand information about ongoing military activities in the area.
One of the pieces of information that he revealed, or rather confirmed, is that some of the generals who were involved in crimes in the past and are trying to avoid accountability, as he puts it, are allying with Eritrea. He sees that they want to ally with Eritrea to remove Abiy Ahmed from power and later turn against Eritrea.
In what seems to be a confirmation of the military activity of the generals, the Tigray regional state under Getachew Reda has announced that the generals—who are supporting the Debretsion faction of TPLF—have dismantled the administration in Adigrat, which is only 30 kilometers from the Eritrean border. Tesfa News, an Eritrean news source, already reported on Tuesday that Getachew Reda fled to Addis Ababa. Also, there was a report earlier today that there was a drone survey in Mekelle. Getachew is cited as saying that he does not know if the drone is from Asmara or Addis Ababa.
Another key point that Tsadkan shared is that there is a well-trained and disciplined army in Tigray. Yet, he also stated that the war will be a protracted one, and Tigray will be the main theater of the war and will be devastated by it.
Still, another crucial point that he highlighted is that the war will not be just between Ethiopia and Eritrea. He sees the involvement of major state actors in the region and beyond. He anticipates the involvement of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Turkey. He seems to think that Western powers will not be involved, perhaps due to their preoccupation with Ukraine and Gaza. When the war ends, he says, there will be new geographical realities.
After all this, Tsadkan still seems to think that last-minute intervention could avert or at least delay it. Tsadkan is serving in the Tigray Region Interim Administration as Deputy President and is clearly against the military generals whom he said are allying with Eritrea to avoid accountability for past crimes, as highlighted above. Tsadkan sees the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement as the best option. However, with some military generals dismantling part of the Pretoria provision—which is the interim administration—it does not seem to be the case that the Pretoria Agreement is still alive.
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