Getachew Fentahun
March 14th, 2025
Since the Second World War, Ethiopian politics has been a mass of contradictions. Although these have produced progress, they’ve also created missteps and missed opportunities, writes Getachew Fentahun.
In the 1960s, at the height of ‘Ethiopia as a symbol of freedom’, the country’s backward politico-economic conditions instigated a movement among students, intelligentsia, and the masses for radical change. Instead of creating a socialist state, a decade of crises created the grievances that led to the Derg, a military junta, seizing power in 1974.
Protracted warfare followed that the Derg justified for national integrity, whereas the rebels defended as self-determination. It ended in 1991 when rebels divided the nation into Eritrea and Ethiopia. The Ethiopian People Revolutionary Front (EPRDF), who assumed power in Addis Ababa, promised to address “national questions” and introduced economic liberalisation.
The EPRDF also opened the political space and allowed political pluralism, a free press, and civil society. These openings, however, didn’t last long as EPRDF started step-by-step to close the down the public sphere. The government adopted draconian proclamations that targeted political parties, the press and civil societies. A regime that promised to promote democracy, joined authoritarian camps. Freedom House and Mo Ibrahim Foundation marked the country “not free” and “34 out of 54” with democracy and good governance index respectively.
Despite GDP growth and the expansion of social services, the balance sheet revealed neither economic development nor democracy. Instead, unemployment, high inflation, and lack of good governance instigated the 2014-2018 protests. First, EPRDF attempted to quell the protests and later pledged to introduce façade concessions. Finally, however, protests escalated into full-scale anti-government protests and Hailemariam Desalegn resigned from his premiership in 2018.
The coming of Abiy: between hope and reality
The arrival of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018 created at surge of optimism at home and abroad. While his ethnic origin helped to win the support of Oromo, his politics enabled him to attract pan-Ethiopianists. Abiy was seen as symbol of civic nationalism for those fed up with ethnic politicisation. At the start of his term, he took positive measures like freeing political prisoners, legalising exiled political organisations, and repealing draconian laws.
Abiy rebranded EPRDF into the Prosperity Party (PP) and promised an all-inclusive political environment and genuine elections. His speeches and discussions with different community members surged more hope about democracy, peace, and reconciliation.
Yet, promises faded and the much-expected reforms failed to fully materialise. Violence engulfed the state. People were displaced in mass from Benshagul Gumuz, Oromia, and Amhara regions and suburb of Addis Ababa because of their ethnic identity. Many others experienced frequent violence and felt that no government existed to save them. This under a prime minister who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his early work of normalising Ethio-Eritrean tension.
A bloody war erupted in Tigray between the federal government and Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front. The war consumed close to a million lives and billions worth of infrastructure. Though the Tigray war ended with the Pretoria Peace Agreement, further fighting has erupted in the Oromia and Amhara regions. In those clashes, civilians are experiencing swords from two sides: state security forces and militants. In the Amhara region, for instance, civilians are victims of security forces’ frequent drone strikes and heavy artillery. There are reports that security forces commit kidnapping, sexual abuse, and summary execution.
Though Abiy repealed the anti-terrorism proclamation, journalists, lawmakers, and activists have been charged with terrorism. Thousands are arrested in (concentration and military) camps without appearing in courts; youths and teenagers are forcefully conscripted to join the national military force. The worst development is, using the volatile security, state and non-state entities are kidnapping people for ransom.
Institutions that survived even the EPRDF’s oppressive rule, such as the Human Rights Council and Center for the Advancement of Rights and Democracy have closed after reporting rights violations.
Despite the promise of rights and democracy many feel the 2018 reforms have led to a dead end.
The economy
Further 2018 reforms were supposed to put the economy on a sounder footing. Minimum living conditions and employment opportunities are additional aspirations that Ethiopians hoped for. Abiy launched economic liberalisation, including a currency devaluation viewed by the government as a breakthrough for growth. However, in a state that imports almost all goods and services, the devaluation came with skyrocketing inflation and depreciation of assets. Within weeks of the devaluation the price of goods and services increased by four and five-fold.
The government has spent large sums of money on cities for reconstruction in the name of corridor development. A grand palace costing billions is under construction. All these may not be bad; however, critics argue these should not be the priority. Do such projects have any economic return to absorb the increasing unemployment? Who walks on those gleaming boulevards and who will sit in the green parks? Unless effective intervention is taken, the answer will be those who were displaced from their homes and those who fail to feed themselves and their families.
The PP feels increasingly out of touch. Burgeoning issues such as inflation, unemployment, insecurity, don’t seem to concern the party. Abiy stated “the goal of PP is not about eating three times a day. It is bringing 3Hs, i.e. harmony, happiness, and human excellence.” Except for the prime minister, no one explains how happiness, harmony, and human excellence are achieved without food security. How will people struggling with skyrocketing living costs, their houses and business centres being demolished, and living through battles, will be happy?
Like his predecessors, Abiy promised all-inclusive reforms that would ensure modest living standards and political openings. But he slide back to authoritarianism, promises and aspirations remain mere words. To bring real progress and resume the stalled democratic process, Ethiopia needs negotiated and context-rich political reform. Otherwise, as usual, the reform discourse will be legitimacy fanfare for new democracy-coated authoritarian rulers.
Photo credit: IMF used with permission CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
About the author
Getachew Fentahun
Getachew Fentahun is a PhD student of Political Science at Addis Ababa University and a lecturer at Debre Markos University, Ethiopia. His research interests are quests for change, political reform and democratisation.
Posted In: Politics