February 3, 2026
By: Habte H.
Ethiopia is standing at the edge of a historic precipice. Rarely in its long and complex history has the country faced such a convergence of political paralysis, social fragmentation, economic exhaustion, and violent conflict. This is not an ordinary political season – it is a defining moment that will determine whether Ethiopia stabilizes through compromise or descends further into chaos and possible disintegration.
Yet, at this critical juncture, the Prosperity Party (PP), led government is pressing ahead with plans to conduct national elections in June. Framed as a constitutional necessity, these elections risk becoming a dangerous illusion of normalcy in a country that is anything but normal.
A Country in Crisis Cannot Pretend to Be at Peace
Ethiopia today is not a post-conflict society ready for democratic competition. It is a nation still bleeding. Large parts of the country remain insecure, millions are displaced, trust between communities has eroded, and the social contract between citizens and the state is badly damaged.
In such an environment, elections are not merely technical exercises; they require minimum conditions, security, political freedom, institutional neutrality, and public confidence. None of these conditions currently exist at a national level. Proceeding as if they do is not optimism; it is denial.
History is unforgiving to governments that mistake procedure for legitimacy. Elections held amid fear, repression, and exclusion do not stabilize states, they deepen grievances and postpone inevitable reckoning.
A Captured Election Commission and a Hollow Process
At the heart of the proposed June elections lies a deeply compromised electoral body. The National Election Board, rather than serving as an independent referee, is widely perceived as a political instrument of the ruling party. Its decisions, structure, and conduct have eroded trust across the political spectrum.
More importantly, the commission is not recognized by meaningful political forces in the country. An election administered by a body that lacks legitimacy among key stakeholders cannot produce outcomes that the public will accept. Instead of resolving disputes, it institutionalizes mistrust.
In this context, the election commission functions less as a democratic institution and more as a technical cover for a predetermined political outcome.
The Absence of a Real Opposition
Perhaps the most uncomfortable truth is this: Ethiopia currently has no genuinely independent opposition party capable of competing freely and credibly for power nationwide.
The parties listed on the electoral roll fall into familiar patterns. Some operate as satellites of the ruling party, sustaining the appearance of pluralism while posing no real challenge. Others were manufactured or encouraged by the system to fragment dissent. The rest exist without real constituencies, organizational strength, or national legitimacy.
This is not accidental. Political actors who demonstrate genuine popular support are systematically neutralized – through repression, legal harassment, co-optation, or force. Many are dismantled; others are pushed into armed struggle. As a result, political competition has shifted from ballots to bullets. Under such conditions, elections become performative rather than representative.
Why a Transitional Government Is the Only Viable Path?
Given this reality, Ethiopia’s most urgent and irreplaceable solution is a genuinely inclusive transitional government formed through broad national dialogue. This transition must include all significant political forces – armed and unarmed and ensure fair representation of Ethiopia’s diverse communities.
A transitional government is not an admission of failure. It is an acknowledgment of reality. Its mandate would be to stabilize the country, reform key institutions, restore civil and political freedoms, rebuild trust, and prepare the ground for elections that are genuinely competitive and credible. Without such a transition, elections will merely recycle crisis under a different name.
A Final Choice for the Prosperity Party – and the Country
If PP insists on proceeding with a controlled election while ignoring calls for an inclusive transition, Ethiopia will miss a historic and non-replaceable opportunity. The country will continue to bleed; politically, socially, and economically – and the risks of prolonged instability, fragmentation, and civil war will intensify.
This warning is not issued for partisan gain. No ruling party can survive indefinitely in a collapsing state. Legitimacy cannot be manufactured through staged elections; it must be earned through inclusion and trust.
However, if PP chooses dialogue over denial and accepts a transitional arrangement, it could shape a different legacy. It could be remembered as the leadership that placed national survival above political dominance and chose compromise over catastrophe. Ethiopia does not need another hollow election. It needs courage, honesty, and statesmanship. The window for such leadership is narrow and closing fast.
This is the moment to be mindful. Missing it may push the country beyond repair!!
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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