March 3, 2026
By: Habte H.
For nearly three years, troubling reports have continued to emerge from Arsi – stories of families uprooted from their homes, villages attacked in the dark of night, and innocent civilians caught in cycles of violence. Many Ethiopian citizens, particularly from the Amhara and Christian communities, say they have lived through fear, displacement, and deep grief during this period.
Beyond the immediate human tragedy, the violence has shaken the foundations of local coexistence. Trust among neighbours has eroded. Long-standing social bonds have fractured. Many victims express not only sorrow but also a painful sense of abandonment – the feeling that protection and justice have not come when most needed.
In this context, pressing questions linger in the minds of many Ethiopians. Who is fuelling this violence? Why has it continued for so long? And perhaps most importantly, when will it finally stop? In today’s reflection, I do not seek to inflame tensions or deepen divisions. Rather, I hope to encourage thoughtful and responsible discussion about accountability, peace, and the kind of future Ethiopia chooses to build.
Who is behind the genocide?
Understanding responsibility requires examining several interconnected actors and narratives.
1. Extremist Narratives from the Diaspora
One troubling dynamic in post-EPRDF politics has been the influence of radicalized diaspora networks. From abroad, certain individuals and groups amplify divisive narratives, portraying entire communities as historic enemies, framing coexistence as betrayal, and circulating grievance-driven ideologies through social media platforms.
Young people on the ground, already burdened by unemployment, insecurity, and political frustration, may become particularly vulnerable to such messaging. In some cases, there are allegations that financial support, propaganda, and coordination flow from abroad into local militant structures. This form of long-distance radicalization has acted as a dangerous accelerant within Ethiopia’s already fragile political environment.
2. Local Political Complicity and Weak Governance
In conversations with affected residents, a recurring concern is the role of local and regional authorities. Many citizens argue that officials, often associated with the ruling Prosperity Party (PP), have failed to provide adequate protection during repeated episodes of violence.
Several allegations are frequently raised by community members. These include claims that warning signs were ignored before attacks occurred, that law enforcement responses were slow or ineffective, that vulnerable communities were selectively disarmed without sufficient alternative protection, and that investigations into killings have lacked transparency and public accountability.
Whether due to administrative weakness, political calculation, institutional fragmentation, or fear of confronting armed actors, the perception of inaction has had serious consequences. Trust in local governance has declined, and confidence in the state’s ability to ensure equal protection has been shaken. When communities begin to believe that the government either cannot or will not safeguard their lives and property, the social contract, the very foundation of public trust in institutions, begins to erode.
3. Radical Religious and Ethno-Nationalist Elements
Another factor frequently mentioned is the presence of radical religious and ethno-nationalist elements operating in different parts of the country. These actors promote exclusionary visions, framing certain ethnic or religious groups as illegitimate or “outsiders.” Such narratives are not new in Ethiopia’s history, but when combined with weapons, political polarization, and weak institutions, they become deadly. Violence that begins as localized tension can quickly evolve into systematic targeting when ideology justifies it.
4. Opportunistic Local Militants and Resource Conflicts
Land and natural resources remain deeply contested in several parts of Ethiopia. In areas where governance is weak and security fragile, competition over farmland, grazing land, and local economic opportunities can easily escalate into violence.
In such environments, some armed groups exploit instability to displace communities, seize property, and strengthen their political or economic control. Ethnic and religious narratives may be used to justify actions that are often driven by material interests and struggles over land and local power.
Why Does the Violence Persist?
Several beliefs are often echoed within extremist circles:
- Historical grievance narratives – claims tied to imperial-era conflicts, especially referencing the time of Menelik II, are used to justify present-day revenge logic.
- Religious exclusivism – the efforts by radical factions to frame certain areas as belonging exclusively to one faith community.
- Territorial control and demographic engineering – attempts to reshape local power balances.
However, regardless of historical disputes, collective punishment and the targeting of civilians cannot be justified under any moral, religious, constitutional, or international legal framework.
When Will It Stop?
Many observers and affected citizens believe that the primary enabler of continued violence is the current political structure led by the Prosperity Party. In their assessment, as long as this governing framework remains intact, perpetrators operate in an environment where accountability mechanisms are weak, enforcement is selective, and protection is uneven. Under such conditions, they argue, violence is not decisively deterred. Instead, it risks becoming normalized and gradually spreading into new areas.
For these communities, meaningful peace requires more than temporary deployments or reactive security measures. They believe it demands a fundamental political transition—one that restructures power, strengthens rule-of-law institutions, restores public trust, and guarantees equal protection and genuine security for all Ethiopian citizens.
What Can Be Done?
- Short-Term Measures: The immediate priority is protecting lives and preventing displacement. To ensure self-defence, the public should be enabled to arm themselves, drawing assistance and support from allied forces such as the FANO or other armed groups. Until independent investigations are conducted, displaced families must receive urgent protection and firm guarantees for their safe return.
- Long-Term Solutions: Sustainable peace requires structural reform that can address the root causes of the problem. Given that African governance systems are often undemocratic and born of violence, the establishment of a transitional government, or the removal of the current ruling party (PP), is necessary. Lasting stability must be built on rebuilding trust, strengthening accountability, lawfully countering extremist propaganda, and promoting inclusive national dialogue.
A Final Reflection
Ethiopia’s enduring strength lies in its rich diversity- faiths, languages, cultures, and histories woven together across centuries. When violence in Arsi, or in any part of the country, becomes normalized, the cost is borne by the entire nation. The deeper question is not only who fuels conflict, but who will stand for justice, defend coexistence, and uphold equal citizenship. Lasting peace can only emerge from accountability, fairness, and a shared commitment to protecting every Ethiopian.