March 7, 2026
By Kefleha Genshema
Introduction: A Nation at a Crossroads
Ethiopia is one of the most diverse countries in Africa, with one of the oldest civilizations in the world. For centuries, the linguistic, religious, and cultural diversity that Ethiopia embodies has not been a major political divide but rather an integral aspect of the daily lives of the people. Though there have been moments of conflict and tension, the country has never been divided along ethnic lines as it is today.
One of the major milestones in the history of Ethiopia came with the fall of the Derg regime in 1991. In response to the grievances of the people, such as political, cultural, and central authority domination, the new administration adopted ethnic federalism. It later became enshrined in the Constitution of 1995, with the objective of providing equality, freedom, and recognition to the country’s diverse nations, nationalities, and peoples.
Three decades later, the country continues to face the challenges of political instability, mass displacement, and the erosion of trust among the people. Despite the intention of the ethnic federalist system to address historical injustices, the system has inadvertently contributed to the strengthening of ethnic politics, the undermining of democratic principles, and the undermining of national unity.
For the country to find peace and stability, there is a need to gradually move away from ethnic politics and towards civic citizenship.
The Promise and Pitfalls of Ethnic Federalism
The designers of ethnic federalism were, apparently, motivated by the need to address genuine grievances of the past. Various communities felt ignored and culturally suppressed by imperial and military administrations. Federalism, at least theoretically, offered a framework for addressing issues of diversity and heterogeneity. In practice, however, it presented powerful incentives for politicians to seek support along ethnic lines.
Citizenship and political legitimacy gradually shifted from performance-based policies to ethnic representation. Serving the public was replaced by serving one’s group. In this setting, competition for land, administrative boundaries, jobs, and power was linked to ethnicity. Identity politics escalated local governance issues into matters of survival between different communities.
In this atmosphere, political discourse narrowed, and narratives of victimization and historical grievances replaced constructive and useful debates. In some instances, it even contributed to the hardening of existing suspicions.
The Human Cost of Identity Politics
The human cost of this phenomenon has gone far beyond the politicians. Communities that used to live in harmony are now increasingly suspicious of one another.
What you are, where you are from, your last name, and even the accent you use may determine the opportunities you have access to. In some instances, communities of mixed heritage are caught between identity boundaries, and old friendships, marriages, and business relationships are now complicated by political loyalties.
Social media and partisan rhetoric have often heightened these conflicts. Rumors spread more quickly than factual information, fueling mistrust between different communities.
Young people are in a particularly difficult position. They are often underemployed, and economic progress appears stalled. In these conditions, identity mobilization can provide a sense of belonging, security, and meaning. Some young Ethiopians may join ethnic militias or factional organizations that emphasize communal security, not national development.
The results have been catastrophic in many regions. Cycles of displacement and retaliatory violence are common in Benishangul-Gumuz, Oromia, Somali, Amhara, Afar, Tigray, and various southern ethnically designated regions. Millions of Ethiopians have been internally displaced in recent years. These are a testament to the human cost of recurring political instability in the country.
These are not the inevitable consequences of diversity, but of political systems that convert diversity into a zero-sum contest for power.
Elite Competition and the Politics of Blame
In the modern Ethiopian political environment, narratives of ethnic grievance are often leveraged by political elites as a means of mobilizing support. Blame directed at any particular group may yield political rewards in the short term, but does so at the cost of long-term stability.
No single ethnic group’s “turn” in power can rectify systemic injustice. Centralizing power in any particular coalition of ethnic groups merely changes, but does not eliminate, targets of resentment.
Citizens of Ethiopia, regardless of their Oromo, Amhara, Tigrayan, Somali, Afar, Wolaita, or other ethnic identity, want similar things: security, dignity, freedom of movement, and economic opportunities.
The causes of instability are structural, including weak institutions, politicized security forces, compromised judicial independence, corruption, and patronage networks.
When political leaders present themselves as ethnic champions, not constitutional custodians, accountability becomes impossible. Bad governance can always be justified as long as ethnic loyalty can be claimed.
Democracy without Strong Institutions
In their justification for ethicized rule, some political actors argue that democracy is nothing more than rule by the majority. However, in the ethnically organized political environment, the majority can easily become the permanent ruler.
In the absence of rule-of-law institutions, the rule of the majority easily translates into ethnic supremacy, and the protection of minorities becomes a mere slogan.
For a democracy to be sustainable, there must be the presence of rule-of-law institutions that are independent of ethnic and political considerations. This entails the presence of:
· An independent judiciary
· A professional civil service
· Credible electoral institutions
Accountable security forces that owe allegiance to the constitution and not to political parties
When the citizenry perceives that the state institutions are biased towards certain ethnic groups, trust in the state is broken. Politics becomes a struggle for existence, and the ballot box a struggle to survive.
Same Old and Worse: A Situation Without Change
For the most part, Ethiopia is a hard place for most Ethiopians, aside from the small percentage of individuals who wear designer clothes and pretend to represent their ethnic groups and enjoy the fruits of the system. In most of the major cities in Ethiopia, such as Addis Ababa, Awassa, Nazret, Shashemene, Dire Dawa, and many others, it is increasingly being seen by Ethiopians as being dominated by certain political or ethnic networks. It is under such circumstances that Ethiopians believe it is hard for one to live in peace, do business, or seek justice without being part of the dominant political or ethnic network in a particular place. It is at such circumstances that the trust in public institutions is also undermined. For most Ethiopians, it is as if they are moving from one political jurisdiction into another when they move from one regional state into another. It does not matter whether it is actually true or based on experience, but it is a fact that there must be citizenship between Ethiopians in order for there to be economic growth. All these circumstances must change in order for economic growth and unity to be achieved in Ethiopia. It will be hard for tourists and investors coming from Ethiopia abroad to visit Ethiopia as long as political instability, insecurity, and lack of trust in public institutions persist. Such circumstances as the so-called ‘corridor development’ will be helpful but will not be enough.
The political developments of the past eight years have clearly shown the ineffectiveness of change in political leadership without any change in the political system. It is evident that, despite the change in political leadership and the political coalitions, the political system has not been changed at all. In fact, the political developments of the past eight years have been, in many respects, less about the change in the political system and more about the replacement of one dominant ethnic coalition by another. Such changes, however, do not address the underlying incentives for ethnic political competition at all.
To make this point clear, let us consider an analogy. Suppose a car is fundamentally broken. No matter who the driver of the car is, the car will not function properly. In the same way, the political problems facing Ethiopia cannot be fixed by changing the political leadership. Instead, the political system has to be fixed by building impartial institutions, strengthening the rule of law, and creating a civic political system in which political competition is based not on ethnic dominance but rather on performance and accountability. Without such a change in the political system, the change in political leadership is like changing the driver of a broken car.
Economic Consequences: The Cost of Patronage
In addition to the effects of political instability and ethnic patronage on the rule of law and the protection of minority rights, there are also important economic consequences.
Investors’ confidence in the business environment is crucial in the determination of the success of a country. However, when the rules and the law seem to be biased towards a given ethnic group, investors at home and in the diaspora become apprehensive.
In my experience as a diaspora investor returning home, while bureaucratic red tape was expected, the worrying trend was the emphasis on ethnic identity in preference to competence in business circles. More worrying, however, was the general perception that the rule of law might be compromised due to political instability.
This is a problem shared by many Ethiopians in the diaspora. The consequences of this perception of bias against Ethiopians in the diaspora should not be taken lightly. This is because the country stands to lose a great opportunity for growth through the capital, skills, and global connections of the diaspora.
Economic stagnation will then lead to political dissatisfaction, thus creating a vicious circle of political instability.
Lessons from Other Diverse Democracies
Ethiopia is not the only country to have to deal with the problem of diversity. Other countries have managed to overcome the challenges of cultural, linguistic, or religious diversity. These countries have used institutional mechanisms to create an inclusive environment for diverse people.
Examples of such diverse democracies include:
• The United States of America and Germany have a citizenship policy mainly based on the country’s constitutional identity rather than ethnicity.
• India has reorganized several of its states along linguistic lines. The country’s constitution, however, emphasizes the importance of individual rights.
• The Swiss have managed to balance linguistic diversity through a power-sharing approach to government.
• South Africa has a new constitution after the end of apartheid. The country’s new constitution is founded on the principles of citizenship.
These examples of diverse democracies are different from the Ethiopian experience. The examples, however, have one thing in common: they have used institutional mechanisms to create an inclusive environment for diverse people.
Alternative Political Pathways for Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s shift to a civic citizenship approach does not have to mean the loss of cultural identity. The country’s linguistic and cultural diversity are a reality. This diversity should be maintained. The problem lies not in the diversity but in the political incentives for political actors to create a sense of identity-based political competition. The political system should be reformed to allow for the protection of cultural rights while at the same time emphasizing the importance of citizenship.
Several reforms can be implemented that will push Ethiopia in this direction:
A. Constitutional Reform
The constitution can be reformed to assert the dominance of individual citizenship rights while safeguarding linguistic and cultural diversity.
Some of these reforms can be implemented as follows:
· Reaffirming equal constitutional protection for all citizens
· Revisiting provisions that rigidly connect political representation with ethnicity
· Reaffirming decentralization while eliminating incentives for zero-sum regional rivalry
2. Electoral Reform
The electoral process is an important factor that influences politics in any given country. In Ethiopia, for instance, the current process has tended to favor parties that can mobilize voters on an ethnic basis.
Some reforms that can be implemented in this process can be as follows:
· Multi-ethnic political parties
· Cross-regional coalitions
· Proportional electoral systems that require broader national support
3. Strengthening Judiciary and Civil Service
Independent institutions are critical for any democracy.
Some reforms that can be implemented can be as follows:
· Transparent and merit-based selection
· Safeguards against political interference
· Professional standards for civil service recruitment
4. Security Sector Reform
Security institutions should be constitutionally mandated to serve the constitution, not any particular faction.
Some reforms that can be implemented can be as follows:
· Unified national oversight of law enforcement agencies
· Safeguards against politicization
· Enhanced parliamentary and judicial oversight
5. National Civic Education
National civic identity is critical for long-term stability.
Some reforms that can be implemented can be as follows:
· Schools
· Universities
· Media institutions
6. Economic Governance Reform
Removing patronage is critical for both political and economic stability.
Some reforms that can be implemented can be as follows:
· Stronger anti-corruption institutions
· Equal protection for investment
· Digitization of land administration
· Digitization of licensing
The Need for Structural Transformation
Ethiopia’s major challenges, such as unemployment, inflation, poverty, displacement, and violence, are not the results of diversity. Instead, they are the consequences of politicized governance structures.
Ethiopia’s cultural identity will be preserved while ensuring the equal rights and responsibilities of each citizen of the country through a civic constitutional order.
Instead of this, the country will continue to experience further fragmentation, mobilization, displacement, mistrust, and stagnation.
Ethiopia has a long history of resilience and coexistence. The future of the country will depend on the ability of the political system to change the current perception of diversity from a source of division to a source of unity.
This will be possible through the courage of the people of Ethiopia and their political leadership to rise above the current grievances and create a system of governance through a criterion of merit.
This will be the beginning of a new era for the country to realize its full potential as a diverse yet cohesive country.
Footnotes
1. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), specifically Articles 39 and 46 on countries, nationalities, peoples, and state formation in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 1995 Constitution.2. Andreas Eshete, “Ethnic Federalism: New Frontiers in Ethiopian Politics,” Addis Ababa University, 2003; Lovise Aalen, The Politics of Ethnicity in Ethiopia: Actors, Power, and Mobilization under Ethnic Federalism (Leiden: Brill, 2011).3. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Ethiopia Humanitarian Updates (2018–2023); Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), Ethiopia Displacement Reports (many years).
4. Christopher Clapham, Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia (Cambridge University Press, 1988); Sarah Vaughan and Kjetil Tronvoll, The Culture of Power in Contemporary Ethiopian Political Life (Sida Studies, 2003).5. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Issues of Democratic Transition and Consolidation (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996); Robert A. Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (Yale University Press, 1971).6. Arthur B. Gunlicks, The Länder and German Federalism (Manchester University Press, 2003); Daniel J. Elazar, Investigating Federalism (University of Alabama Press, 1987).
7. Ramachandra Guha, India After Gandhi (HarperCollins, 2007); Grandville Austin, The Indian Constitution: Foundation of a Nation (Oxford University Press, 1966).8. Wolf Linder, Swiss Democracy (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010); Arend Lijphart, Patterns of Democracy (Yale University Press, 1999).9. Heinz Klug, Constituting Democracy: Law, Globalism, and South Africa’s Political Reconstruction (Cambridge University Press, 2000); Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996.10. Francis Fukuyama, Political Order and Political Decay (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2014); Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (University of California Press, 1985).
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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