March 23, 2026
By: – Habte H.
A Nation Bleeding Since Transition
Since Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, Ethiopia has been bleeding. What began as a moment of hope and political transition has steadily transformed into a period marked by recurring violence, instability, and deepening mistrust among communities. Many initially believed the unrest was the unavoidable turbulence of reform. But years later, a more troubling pattern has emerged: conflict is no longer incidental, it appears sustained.
Today, Ethiopia is witnessing two major conflicts unfoldings on separate fronts. At first glance, they seem fundamentally different, even contradictory. Yet, when examined closely, they reveal a deeper paradox: two wars driven by opposing causes but converging toward a single political endgame.
Oromia: A War That Should End, but Does Not
On one front, the government is engaged in conflict with elements associated with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). The ideological foundation of this struggle, as often presented, is tied to questions of self-determination and, in its most extreme form, the potential fragmentation of Ethiopia. For many Ethiopians, resisting such movements is seen as a legitimate defence of national unity.
However, the persistence of this conflict raises difficult questions. Why has a war that could be contained or politically managed continued for so long? Why does it remain unresolved despite the state’s capacity? For some observers, the concern is not merely about the existence of the conflict, but whether its continuation serves a political function, one that benefits those in power by maintaining a controlled level of instability.
More troubling are growing allegations from affected communities and independent observers that patterns of violence in parts of Oromia are not random. Reports have repeatedly pointed to situations in which local populations, particularly Amhara communities, are disarmed or left unprotected, followed by attacks attributed to armed groups such as OLF-affiliated fighters. These patterns have led to a strong and deeply held belief among many that the conflict environment is being exploited, or at minimum inadequately addressed, in ways that enable the displacement of Amhara populations from certain parts of Oromia.
Whether by design, negligence, or failure of protection, the outcome is the same: civilians remain exposed, communities are uprooted, and trust in state neutrality erodes. This raises a critical and uncomfortable question: if the state has the capacity to act decisively, why do these patterns persist.
Amhara: Fighting Those Who Claim Unity
On the other front, the government is fighting armed groups broadly associated with Fano in the Amhara region. Unlike the OLF-linked conflict, this war is not framed around separation or disintegration. Instead, Fano fighters consistently articulate their objectives in terms of unity, equality, and protection of their community.
It is important to recall that many of these forces, and the broader Amhara public, were among the strongest supporters of Abiy Ahmed during his early years in power. They saw in him a unifier and a leader capable of steering Ethiopia toward stability and prosperity. This support remained firm through the early reform period and even during the war in Tigray.
However, that relationship has since fractured dramatically. A growing number of observers and supporters argue that the government’s posture toward Amhara communities has shifted, from partnership to suspicion, and from suspicion to confrontation. Some believe this reflects a deeper political narrative that portrays Amhara identity as historically dominant or “expansionist,” and therefore as a threat to the current political order.
Within this context, the current conflict is seen by many not simply as a security operation, but as part of a broader effort to weaken and suppress Amhara political and social influence. The use of heavy military force, including reports of drone strikes and large-scale operations, has reinforced perceptions of disproportionate response and deepened grievances.
This creates a striking contradiction. If both the government and Fano claim to stand for a unified Ethiopia, why are they in direct and escalating conflict? The answer may lie not in stated goals, but in competing visions of unity. While one emphasizes centralized control and political dominance, the other calls for equality, protection, and non-discrimination within a unified state.
Two Opposite Wars, One Political Logic
This is where the paradox becomes clearer. In Oromia, a conflict with potentially existential implications for the state appears prolonged and unresolved. In Amhara, a movement that claims to defend unity is met with intense military force. The contrast is not only strategic, but also deeply political.
Over time, a pattern emerges. One conflict is managed; the other is confronted head-on. This raises a fundamental question: what is the true endgame? One interpretation is that both wars, despite having different origins, serve a common purpose: consolidation of state power. Prolonged conflict can weaken institutions, fragment opposition, and justify expanded security measures.
The Cost to Ethiopia’s Future
For ordinary Ethiopians, the consequences are devastating. Communities continue to suffer displacement, loss of life, and economic hardship. Trust in national institutions erodes further with each passing year. The promise of reform has given way to a reality defined by fear and uncertainty.
There are also deeper long-term risks. A state that normalizes continuous conflict risks losing its capacity to unify. A leadership that relies on division may ultimately find itself governing a country that no longer holds together.
History often reveals the truth more clearly than political narratives. For now, Ethiopia is not simply facing multiple conflicts, it is facing a crisis of direction.
The tragedy is that both wars, despite their different causes, may lead to the same outcome: a weakened nation, divided society, and prolonged suffering. Ethiopia deserves better: clarity of purpose, genuine unity, and leadership that prioritizes peace over power.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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