March 29, 2026
Nama Nekemto
Any robust and meaningful economic analysis of a nation must be fundamentally anchored in a thorough examination of its political stability and security landscape. To attempt an economic assessment in isolation from these foundational pillars would inevitably lead to a distorted and unrepresentative portrayal of the country’s true economic state. Such an analysis would possess limited practical utility and would be incapable of furnishing actionable insights or viable solutions.
Considering the contemporary situation in Ethiopia, it is evident that the nation is grappling with widespread conflict and profound security challenges across various regions. Within this tumultuous environment, a significant portion of the country’s finite resources, including international loans, is regrettably being diverted towards sustaining internal conflicts and acquiring military hardware. In a context where citizens are displaced from their homes, lose their lives, and face severe disruptions to essential services due to ongoing warfare, any discourse on economic growth appears detached from the harsh realities on the ground.
The devastating impact of conflict extends beyond immediate casualties; it systematically erodes human capital, decimates critical infrastructure, severely impedes foreign and domestic investment, and fundamentally frays the social and psychological fabric of society. Under such conditions, the prospect of achieving sustained, long-term economic development becomes virtually untenable.
In this light, the recent economic analysis presented by Dr. Yonas Birru appears to diverge significantly from Ethiopia’s prevailing realities. A critical omission in the analysis is its failure to adequately integrate the nation’s pressing security crisis and its profound, pervasive repercussions on the economy. This oversight diminishes the analytical robustness of the work, suggesting a potential underestimation of the security situation as a mere peripheral factor. Such an approach inherently limits the understanding of the complex interplay between the root causes and observable effects of the country’s economic tribulations. Consequently, the analysis struggles to accurately identify core problems or to propose credible pathways towards enduring solutions.
Drawing Parallels Between ‘Asian Tigers’ and Ethiopia’s Present Economic Situation is Like Comparing Apples and Oranges
Dr. Yonas Birru’s analysis draws parallels between Ethiopia’s contemporary situation and the early days growth trajectories of China, Vietnam, and South Korea. While comparative studies undoubtedly enrich academic discourse, it is my contention that the aforementioned comparisons overlook fundamental disparities when viewed against Ethiopia’s intricate current realities.
A cornerstone of the rapid economic ascent experienced by these Asian nations was their profound internal political stability and societal cohesion. During their pivotal developmental phases, their respective governments largely maintained harmonious relations with their populations, fostering a collective national vision and widely accepted political leadership. This bedrock of internal stability provided an indispensable foundation for sustained economic development. In stark contrast, contemporary Ethiopia is grappling with profound and pervasive internal conflicts. The frequent confrontations between state forces and various armed groups have precipitated severe humanitarian crises and exacerbated societal fragmentation, marking a trajectory distinctly divergent from the developmental starting points of the Asian economies.
Furthermore, the economic triumphs of these Asian nations were underpinned by robust security environments. This stability was instrumental in attracting and sustaining both domestic and foreign investment, alongside fostering a thriving tourism sector. They did not contend with pervasive security vulnerabilities that could deter potential investors or jeopardize critical economic sectors. Ethiopia’s prevailing reality, however, presents a stark divergence. Over the past six years alone, persistent insecurity has compelled hundreds of local and international investors to shut down their operations and move their ventures to other African countries. Tourism inflows in these six years has also become nonexistent. This widespread instability has effectively stifled economic aspirations and significantly curtailed the nation’s developmental potential.
Finally, a critical yet underestimated factor in Dr. Yonas Birru’s article is the degree of public acceptance and legitimacy enjoyed by these Asian governments. To varying extents, these mentioned three Asian governments commanded widespread popular support and trust, which was foundational for the successful implementation of long-term economic policies and for ensuring broad-based national participation. The current administration in Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, however, faces a significant deficit in both public trust and acceptance among a substantial segment of the Ethiopian populace. This pervasive erosion of public confidence invariably reshapes the character of any economic initiative. Many perceive current ‘investments’ less as components of genuine, nationally endorsed development strategies, and more as instrumental efforts to consolidate governmental power and perpetuate the existing system.
Therefore, Dr. Yonas Birru attempting to contextualize Ethiopia’s contemporary challenges within the historical narratives of the ‘Asian Tigers’ not only risks an inadequate appraisal of the nation’s intrinsic difficulties but could also steer policy discussions down an unproductive path, offering misplaced optimism. The formulation of any truly effective and sustainable solutions mandates a rigorous, reality-based assessment of Ethiopia’s unique and complex internal circumstances.
Conclusion
Economic assessment of an individual who claims to be an economist that overlooks such fundamental variables risks serving ancillary objectives, whether political or personal, rather than genuinely contributing to the essential quest for lasting peace and sustainable development within Ethiopia. Crafting studies that genuinely foster long-term economic prosperity demands a profound maturity and unwavering courage to confront a country’s intricate and often challenging realities head-on.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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