April 27, 2026
“The legitimacy of Ethiopia’s election will not be determined solely by whether it is held, but by whether it reflects the genuine will of its people“
By George L.
1. Introduction and Background
Ethiopia stands at a critical political crossroads as it approaches its upcoming national election. Elections, in principle, are intended to provide citizens with an opportunity to freely choose their representatives and shape the country’s governance trajectory. However, for elections to be considered legitimate—free, fair, and competitive—they must meet key conditions: inclusive participation, respect for civil liberties, equal access to media, institutional independence, and credible dispute resolution mechanisms.
In the current Ethiopian context, these foundational principles are increasingly under strain. The country is grappling with overlapping crises, including protracted armed conflicts, large-scale internal displacement, economic challenges, and a shrinking civic and political space. These dynamics raise fundamental questions not only about whether elections will take place, but whether they can genuinely reflect the will of the Ethiopian people.
The search for electoral legitimacy in Ethiopia is therefore inseparable from broader issues related to shrinking political space, security, governance, and human rights. Without addressing these structural challenges, the electoral process is becoming a futile exercise rather than a meaningful democratic milestone.
2. Pre-Election Phase
Voter Registration Process and Associated Challenges
The voter registration phase, a cornerstone of any credible election, has been marked by significant controversy. Reports indicate irregularities and coercive practices in parts of the country. Allegations include local authorities and ruling party representatives conducting door-to-door campaigns pressuring citizens to register, sometimes linking registration to access to essential government services such as identification renewal, housing, or business permits.
Additional concerns include:
- Reports of underage children being registered;
- Intimidation of citizens perceived to be aligned with opposition groups;
- Restrictions on political expression during the registration period.
These practices undermine the principle of voluntary participation and raise concerns about the integrity of the voter roll.
The situation is further complicated by insecurity across multiple regions. Active conflicts in Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, and Afar have disrupted voter registration processes. In some areas, voter registration materials have reportedly been confiscated or destroyed by armed groups, while in others, access constraints have prevented registration altogether. As a result, large segments of the population—particularly internally displaced persons (IDPs)—risk exclusion from the electoral process.
Media Environment
A free and independent media is essential for informed electoral participation. However, Ethiopia’s media landscape has become increasingly restrictive. Journalists face harassment, detention, and legal pressure under various proclamations. Media outlets are subject to regulatory constraints, and some have reportedly been forced to suspend operations or align their reporting with government narratives.
This environment limits the diversity of viewpoints available to the public and restricts meaningful political debate, thereby undermining one of the core pillars of democratic elections.
Political Space for Opposition Parties
The electoral playing field for opposition parties appears uneven. Several opposition leaders and activists have been detained, while others operate under significant restrictions. In some cases, opposition parties face challenges in organizing rallies, accessing media platforms, and engaging with voters.
The reported jailing of opposition figures, combined with intimidation and surveillance, contributes to a climate of fear that discourages political participation. This situation raises concerns about whether opposition parties can compete on an equal footing with the ruling party.
Coercive Measures and Governance Concerns
Beyond individual incidents, broader governance trends suggest a narrowing of democratic space. Legal frameworks such as anti-terrorism and cybercrime laws have been used to regulate political discourse, often with implications for civil society and political actors.
Such measures, whether justified on security grounds or not, have the effect of limiting freedoms of expression, assembly, and association—rights that are essential for credible elections.
3. Western Countries’ Skepticism to Observe the Election
A notable feature of the upcoming election is the apparent reluctance or limited engagement of some Western countries and international observers. This hesitation can be attributed to several interrelated concerns:
- Security Constraints: Ongoing conflicts across multiple regions make it difficult to ensure safe and comprehensive observation. Large areas of the country remain inaccessible, raising questions about the representativeness of the electoral process.
- Credibility of the Electoral Environment: Allegations of repression, restrictions on opposition, and media limitations have led to doubts about whether minimum standards for free and fair elections can be met.
- Institutional Independence: Concerns persist regarding the perceived independence and neutrality of electoral management bodies and the broader institutional framework.
- Human Rights Considerations: Reports of arbitrary detention, extrajudicial actions, and limitations on civil liberties have influenced international perceptions of the electoral environment.
- Political Signaling: Declining to observe or limiting observation can also serve as a diplomatic signal, reflecting concerns about the broader trajectory of governance and democratic reform.
While some regional organizations may still play a role in observation, the absence or reduced presence of traditional Western observers could affect the perceived credibility of the election internationally.
4. Conclusion and Recommendations
Ethiopia’s upcoming election presents both an opportunity and a risk. On one hand, it offers a potential pathway toward political renewal and democratic consolidation. On the other, if conducted under current conditions, it risks deepening existing divisions and undermining public trust in democratic institutions.
To enhance the credibility and legitimacy of the electoral process, several pre-election measures should be undertaken, including the following recommendations:
- Ensure Inclusive Participation: Special attention should be given to conflict-affected populations and IDPs to ensure they can register and vote safely.
- Strengthen Electoral Integrity: Independent oversight of voter registration, voting, and counting processes is essential to build trust.
- Expand Civic and Political Space: Authorities should guarantee freedoms of expression, assembly, and association, and release or ensure fair legal processes for detained political actors and journalists.
- Promote Media Freedom: Creating an enabling environment for independent journalism is critical for informed voter choice.
- Enhance Security and Access: Efforts should be made to de-escalate conflicts and ensure safe access for voters, candidates, and observers.
- Engage International and Regional Partners: Constructive engagement with regional organizations and international partners can enhance transparency and credibility.
Ultimately, the legitimacy of Ethiopia’s election will not be determined solely by whether it is held, but by whether it reflects the genuine will of its people. Without meaningful improvements in the political and security environment, the election risks being perceived as a symbolic exercise rather than a transformative democratic process.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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