Governance CornerGeopolitics Red Sea Rapprochements, Shifting US Priorities, and Ethiopia’s Outlook
May 2, 2026
Reports of its intentions to normalize relations with Eritrea and growing calls for the US to follow in Israel’s footsteps in recognizing Somaliland appear to be part of a strategic realignment in the region in light of the superpower’s stumbling war efforts in Iran.
As Iran and the US oscillate between war, now in its third month, and negotiation, questions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the global economic impacts of its closure have only grown louder. The stalemate has also put the spotlight on the other key maritime chokepoint in the wider region: Bab el Mandeb.
At its narrowest point, the strait separates Djibouti and Yemen by less than 50 kilometers, and its strategic location has only been made more vital by the events unfolding in the Persian Gulf, and threats from Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen to shut down maritime traffic on the Red Sea.
Political and security analysts suggest Washington is already taking steps to secure the Red Sea’s western coast, and reports published in recent weeks appear to back their arguments.
Last week, The Wall Street Journal quoted US officials as saying that Washington seeks a rapprochement with Eritrea. Massad Boulos, a senior figure in the Trump administration, reportedly told foreign counterparts that the US is considering lifting some sanctions on Eritrea as part of a push to restore diplomatic ties, which have been all but severed over the past two decades.
Successive US administrations have opted not to appoint an ambassador to Asmara, and the post has remained vacant since 2010. In 2021, Washington levied a new round of sanctions on the regime of Isaias Afwerki in light of grave rights violations committed by the Eritrean military in Tigray during the two-year war.
Despite this, the Trump administration is looking to repair US relations with Eritrea as part of a scramble to establish a strong presence on the Red Sea. In a statement issued this week, the Eritrean embassy in Washington applauded what it described as “a shift towards engagement.”
“A fundamental reality must be recognized. Decades of pressure, sanctions, and isolation have not produced positive outcomes, neither for US policy objectives nor for regional stability. There is now increasing acknowledgment, even within US policy circles, that a shift towards engagement, rather than misplaced and unwarranted coercion, is both necessary and overdue,” reads the statement.
It hints that Isaias Afwerki’s government is open to collaborating with the US, but on its own terms.
““Eritrea’s position has been consistent and principled. Since independence, it has pursued a policy anchored in sovereignty, non-interference, and an independent development policy that eschews structural and perpetual dependency. Eritrea does not subscribe to dependency-based models. Instead, it promotes mutually beneficial partnerships rooted in trade, investment, and respect for national ownership of development priorities; an approach aligned with evolving global trends,” reads the statement.
Eritrea is not alone in stoking US interest recently.
Last week, US Senator Ted Cruz also renewed his calls for the Trump administration to recognize Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, arguing the self-declared African republic would be a significant strategic partner if Washington were to formalize relations.
“Somaliland is a geo-strategic US maritime security partner in Africa,” Cruz said during a hearing on US counterterrorism approaches in Africa. “It sits along the Gulf of Aden near one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors and its forces actively contribute to counterterrorism and anti-piracy missions.”
In December, Israel became the first to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign nation. Earlier this month, Israel appointed Michael Lotem, former ambassador to Kenya, as its first non-resident ambassador to the Republic of Somaliland. The move drew criticism and condemnation from the African Union (AU) and a dozen governments, including those of Somalia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt.
Despite this, calls from US lawmakers to jump aboard the recognition bandwagon have intensified, and political analysts like Costantinos Berhutesfa (PhD) argue this is part of a recalibration of American presence in the wider region.
“The US aims to maintain control over the Red Sea and Indian Ocean relying not on the Gulf, but on North African and Horn countries,” he said, naming Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia as components of the strategy. Costantinos believes Somalia’s continued instability excludes it from the list of “candidates.”
The analyst argues the war in Iran has changed US perspective on the utility of military bases in the Gulf, and posits that Gulf countries’ pro-US stance has made them targets not only for Iran, but extremist groups.
“American military bases in the Gulf have proven they cannot do anything for US interests there,” said Costantinos.
Another Addis Ababa-based geopolitical analyst who spoke to The Reporter anonymously made a similar argument.
“Fundamentally, Iran wants the US military out of the Gulf. Iran has targeted Saudi, UAE, Qatar, and others because they host US military bases. Reports indicate the US has decided to reposition its military, from the Gulf to the African side. Now, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somaliland are being seen as important assets. This is why the US is considering recognizing Somaliland and relief for Eritrea after decades of sanctions,” said the analyst.
He sees US intentions to lift sanctions on Eritrea as a “sensitive issue” for Ethiopia, and suggests America’s plans for Eritrea may have to wait until Isaias Afwerki is no longer at the helm.
On the other hand, Costantinos argues the situation could work out favorably for both Ethiopia and Eritrea.
“Ethiopia might realize its interest in sea access. Ethiopia looks to access Assab. Eritrea seeks to be free of sanctions and rejoin the international community to benefit politically, economically, and diplomatically,” said Costantinos, suggesting the Trump administration could push the two governments to come to an agreement.
However, the analyst contends this scenario is unlikely under current Eritrean leadership.
“The US is pandering to Eritrea most likely in exchange for a military base on its coast. But the problem is Isaias is too rigid to allow US military presence in Eritrea. His stance on the US is well known. He said it all in his speech in Russia,” said the analyst, referring to a 2023 address in Moscow in which the Eritrean President stated, “There is no Russia-Ukraine war. This is war declared by NATO.”
The analyst argues that continued resistance from the Eritrean government could mean “Isaias might not have much more time in power given America’s growing interest in Eritrea.”
However, he notes the situation is a complex web of relationships spanning the US, Israel, Somaliland, Djibouti, where the US operates a military base, and Yemen. The analyst predicts US military presence in Eritrea would immediately be countered by increased Chinese and Russian presence in Ethiopia.
At the moment, US plans to revive relations with Eritrea are not yet official, and neither is talk of recognizing Somaliland. However, observers say the odds of either of these being realized only grow bigger as the war in Iran drags on.