Jalale Getachew Birru says escalation in Tigray is likely as TPLF consolidates power  – ACLED

Expert Comment

ACLED’s East Africa Senior Analyst Dr.des. Jalale Getachew Birru comments on the implications of TPLF’s reinstatement of the 2020 regional government.

8 May 2026Author

Jalale Getachew Birru

Senior Analyst, East Africa

Jalale Getachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst  at ACLED, said: 

“With the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)’s move to reinstate the 2020 regional government, following the April announcement and subsequent institutional reactivation on 5 May, the TPLF is using a high-risk ‘testing-the-waters’ strategy that also involves realignment with Eritrea. Given the historical precedent, escalation on the ground is almost certain. Even if it manages to avoid internal conflict by consolidating the currently parallel governments, the mobilization toward the disputed western Tigray will be the TPLF’s first move — a clear red line for the government.

“The reinstatement points to two main scenarios: renewed fighting between Tigrayan factions alongside pressure from the federal government, potentially including a form of ‘federal siege’ of Tigray, or direct TPLF military action to try to assert control over disputed western Tigray. Unlike the previously ousted interim president, Getachew Reda, the current interim president, Tadesse Werede — a key military figure in the northern Ethiopia conflict — still has the capacity to mobilize troops given his links to the TDF. He has refused to hand power over to the TPLF¹, and his continued opposition to hardline factions increases the risk of confrontation between the TPLF’s supporters. 

“At the same time, the TPLF has been mobilizing near western Tigray since February 2026, with ACLED local reporting indicating stepped-up recruitment and a resulting outflow of young people to other regions, including Addis Ababa. If hardliners consolidate control of the federally recognized interim administration, they are likely to push to mobilize the TDF to reclaim disputed western Tigray, appeasing their supporters by regaining full territorial control of post-2020 conflict Tigray. Forcibly controlling western Tigray is a red line for the federal government and could trigger a full-blown battle, dragging the region into another round of war.”

For an interview with Dr.des. Jalale Getachew Birru, contact the ACLED press office at press@acleddata.com.