Viewpoint

Mohammedrafi Abaraya

Mohammedrafi Abaraya, Deputy Executive Director of the Institute of Foreign Affairs

Fragile power struggle

Egypt’s proxy campaign against Ethiopia in the Horn risks regional meltdown

Cairo is mobilising Sudan, Eritrea, and the TPLF to encircle Addis Ababa over the Nile dispute, but Ethiopia’s resilient 9.2% economic growth shows it will not be easily destabilised.

Published yesterday at 05:30 am (GMT +1)Share

Tensions in the Horn of Africa are rising rapidly. Sudan and Ethiopia are trading accusations. The Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating civil war in northern Ethiopia, is being tested by the TPLF’s decision to form a rogue regional government in direct violation of the permanent cessation of hostilities agreement.

At the same time, the TPLF is openly aligning with the Eritrean government as it prepares for another round of conflict with the federal authorities.

The entire north-eastern Horn now stands at a tipping point. A regional conflagration involving Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea is no longer unthinkable – it is increasingly a distinct possibility.

Egypt support and backing

In such a scenario, the Sudanese Armed Forces, the TPLF, various ethnic militant groups within Ethiopia and the Eritrean government could converge against the Ethiopian state. This emerging constellation of forces appears to enjoy Egypt’s support and backing.

What we are witnessing, therefore, is not a series of isolated incidents, but the unfolding of a coordinated effort to isolate Ethiopia, encircle it with hostile actors and ultimately weaken – if not unravel – the state. At the centre of this dynamic lies Egypt, whose strategic objective appears to be the containment, and even dismemberment, of Ethiopia.

READ MOREAre Ethiopia and Eritrea about to go to war?

The driving force behind Egypt’s posture is its long-running rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile. Egypt has historically claimed the lion’s share of the river’s waters and regards what it considers its historic rights as a core national security priority. Ethiopia’s development trajectory – particularly its large-scale energy and irrigation projects in the Nile basin, known domestically as the Abay – has heightened Egyptian anxieties.

Cairo seeks to stifle Ethiopia’s ambitions and contain its rise. In this effort, the TPLF, Eritrea and the Sudanese Armed Forces under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan have become its instruments. Despite their distinct motivations, these actors have converged around a shared alignment that effectively positions them as Egypt’s proxies. All three have come together to act as Egypt’s wrecking ball against Ethiopia.

Massive spillovers

The implications of this strategy are profound. If Egypt succeeds in significantly weakening Ethiopia, the consequences would be destabilising far beyond the region. The collapse or fragmentation of the Ethiopian state would trigger massive spillovers. Millions of people could be displaced, with effects felt across the Middle East and Europe.

In such a vacuum, violent extremist groups would find fertile ground, potentially gaining freedom of operation across a vast corridor stretching from the Sahel to the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula. From Mali to Yemen, groups such as Boko Haram, Islamic State and al-Shabaab could expand and entrench their influence. Ethiopia, an ancient state with a unique civilisational legacy, would risk being reduced to a failed state.

READ MOREEthiopia: Tigray is being led back to the brink

Yet Ethiopia is not a passive actor. It is a resilient state, and recent years have demonstrated the depth of that resilience. Despite significant internal and external challenges, Ethiopia has sustained impressive economic growth and transformation. The completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the rollout of major strategic projects – including a new airport and fertiliser plant – and an IMF-projected growth rate of 9.2% all underscore a country that remains firmly on its development path.

Strategically, Ethiopia has exercised notable restraint. It has responded to mounting pressure from Egypt’s proxy alignment with a consistent call for dialogue and compromise. This commitment to de-escalation remains in place. Indeed, Ethiopia’s willingness to conclude the Pretoria peace agreement – at a moment when its forces were on the verge of taking Mekelle – illustrates a preference for negotiated outcomes over military victory. Nonetheless, Ethiopia’s restraint should not be mistaken for weakness. Nor should it be forgotten that Ethiopia’s patience has limits.

What we are witnessing, therefore, is not a series of isolated incidents, but the unfolding of a coordinated effort to isolate Ethiopia

Those who wish to avert Egyptian-scripted chaos and mayhem in the Horn of Africa need to put pressure on Egypt. Cairo must be persuaded to end its destabilising posture. Equally, the proxy actors must cease their hostile actions. Failing this, Ethiopia will have little choice but to respond decisively to safeguard its sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security.

Ethiopia will not yield to external pressure or acquiesce to unfair demands over the Nile. It will stand firm, pursue its ambitious development agenda and navigate the challenges it faces with resilience. Ultimately, it will endure – and it will prevail.