May 24, 2026
By Ayele Meshesha
There is an ongoing effort led by the Abiy Ahmed Ali government to hold an election on June 1, 2026. In many places, including Tigray, Amhara, and several areas in the Oromia region, the election will not be held. However, Abiy is working hard to stay in 4 Killo starting from 1. June 2026 (Ginbot 24, 2018). Whether the country holds an election or not, he will stay in power without gaining the people’s acceptance and recognition, but he will be the illegitimate leader after June. This claim is not made out of thin air or out of the blue. Let us consider a few reasons.
No conducive situation to hold an election
Elections are about the participation of the people in a free and fair environment. Citizens exercising their civil and human rights to make their own choices is an integral part of the democratic process. In the current Ethiopian situation, Abiy Ahmed is effectively leading a country limited to Addis Ababa, a reduced Ethiopia under his government, since he has no meaningful control or leadership in most parts of the country. Given the security conditions, logistical challenges, and political disputes, especially in regions like Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, where there have been conflicts or instability in recent years, it is not possible to hold elections at all. When voting cannot take place in some areas, it raises serious questions about representation, inclusiveness and legitimacy. If these problems existed only in a few areas, one could argue that this does not really affect the overall result of the election. However, we are talking about most of the country not participating in the election.
In many parts of Oromia, elections will not take place due to security issues. Even in those areas where elections are being held, only the Prosperity Party of the Prime Minister is participating. In Tigray, elections are not taking place. The TPLF remains in power, and today Dr. Debretsion has become the regional president after three years by rejecting the Pretoria Agreement. As a result, the TPLF has begun reinstating officials who were elected in the previous regional election. The main reason the Pretoria Agreement failed is the incompetent leaders’ decision to sabotage it. Consequently, the planned June 1, 2026, election will not take place in Tigray. Abiy is also expected to go to war with Tigray forces again after the election, just as he did previously, holding an election first, then launching a war.
In the Amhara region, even according to the government’s own reports, elections are not possible in 50% of the region. In fact, between 70% and 80% of the region is either directly or indirectly under the control of Fano forces. The government has planned to hold elections in the region by setting up polling stations at military camps. Currently, Abiy is operating in the region under a military command post, meaning the military is attempting to control regional cities. Meanwhile, about 80% of the regions’ population lives in rural areas, many of which are under the control of Fano forces. There has been continuous war and conflict across the region for the past three years, destroying much of the country’s military capacity. Fano forces have also declared the election illegal in the region. Therefore, holding elections at military stations raises serious concerns. It is difficult to consider military camps as free and democratic environments. In such a context, people cannot freely participate in elections. It is questionable to call it an election when armed soldiers are present while people are voting.
The election result is decided way before the election day
Even if there is an election on June 1 (May 24), Abiy will remain in power. Not only the prime minister’s position, but also everyone who will go to parliament and occupy government positions has already been decided. Election day will simply be a day for taking videos and photos. It is just a symbolic day. June 1 (May 24) is a staged event. In this version of Ethiopia, like something out of Ethowood, Bollywood, or Nollywood, director and actor Abiy Ahmed Ali has already finished the script, and everything is in place. His propaganda army is ready to launch it using media and social media. He has used AI and other technologies to prepare the results, both digitally and on paper. The sham election, as one international news agency described it, will take place in some parts of the country, including what you refer to as the “new Ethiopia,” Addis Ababa. That will be bombarded on every channel and social media outlet to create the impression that he is reelected.
With this election result, Abiy is eagerly counting the days and hours until he is announced as a reelected leader. He is prepared to continue with this process. However, the issue is that he cannot be seen as a legitimate leader as he was initially. The first time, he managed to gain significant support from over 51% of the population, which gave him legitimacy. Now, he is unlikely to receive 50% of the vote in any region, meaning the results would have to be fabricated. With election fraud or voter fraud, Abiy will stay on power, but he will be illegitimate leader of the country for the first time since he came to power.
Abiy Ahmed lacks the moral foundation to be a legitimate leader
For Abiy Ahmed to stay in power, he needs a moral foundation. This means he must be legitimately elected with at least 50.5% of the popular vote. That is not happening. As a result, he lacks the moral grounds to lead the country. Since the election is a sham, he will lack genuine legitimacy to govern Ethiopia. Even from a spiritual perspective, leadership not grounded in truth makes his legitimacy questionable. Any religious group that supports such a process risks committing a moral error by endorsing a leadership that does not have clear majority support from the Ethiopian people.
Except for false apostles and prophets, or dishonest priests and sheikhs, this leader cannot be considered morally legitimate. Anyone supporting such actions is making an error. Therefore, it would be unjust and wrong, and he will ultimately fail. His government would stand on unstable ground. A house built on such ground collapses when trouble arises. In churches, if a person who has not been chosen through a transparent process becomes a leader, or in a mosque if an imam is not selected properly, or if a pope is not chosen in a transparent way, such leadership would be considered illegitimate. The entire congregation or body of believers would recognize that such leadership is not rightful. That is what is happening in the Ethiopian government system. Abiy is acting dishonestly, as he has done in the past, including during his academic journey up to his PhD. So, whether there is an election or not, Abiy has lost the foundation needed to be a legitimate leader. So, whether there is an election or not, Abiy has lost the moral foundation needed to be counted as a leader. He should give way to others!
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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