May 29, 2026
Introduction
The following OP-ED style commentary is intended for policymakers as well as diplomats who must struggle to find space and time to sift through an abundance of issues they must contend with on an hourly basis. The faithful readers will forgive the style and focus on the substance to follow.
The ‘Election’
Ethiopia approaches its scheduled June 1, 2026, election not with anticipation, but with dread. What should have been a democratic milestone has instead become a national humiliation, a ritualized performance of legitimacy in a country where legitimacy has long since evaporated. Even The Economist—typically cautious in its language—has described the process as a sham, a word that captures both the emptiness of the exercise and the cynicism behind it.
This is not an election. It is a state-managed coronation conducted amid war, repression, and the systematic destruction of political life.
A Country Voting Under the Shadow of War
Ethiopia is still fighting multiple internal wars. Large parts of Amhara remain militarized. Oromia is trapped in a cycle of insurgency and counterinsurgency. Tigray, though quieter, is still recovering from one of the most devastating conflicts in modern African history.
Millions are displaced. Entire districts are inaccessible. Under such conditions, the idea of a free and fair election is not merely unrealistic—it is absurd.
No Opposition, No Freedom, No Legitimacy
The government has spent years ensuring that no meaningful opposition survives to challenge it.
- Political leaders are imprisoned, exiled, or banned.
- Independent media is suffocated.
- Peaceful assembly is criminalized.
- Surveillance and intimidation have become routine tools of governance.
An election without political freedom is not an election. It is a bureaucratic exercise in authoritarian theater.
The Electoral Board: Independent in Name Only
The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) cannot operate freely, cannot access conflict zones, and cannot command public trust. Its role has been reduced to rubber-stamping a predetermined outcome.
When the referee works for one team, the match is over before it begins.
Why This Election Matters—And Why It Is Dangerous
Some argue that even a flawed election is better than none. But this election is not stabilizing the country—it is deepening the crisis.
By insisting on a vote under these conditions, the government is:
- Pretending normalcy where none exists.
- Forcing political expression into underground or armed channels.
- Closing the last remaining avenues for peaceful dissent.
The result is predictable: greater fragmentation, not unity.
Where Ethiopia Goes After June 1
1. Toward a More Authoritarian State
The government will claim a mandate. But a mandate obtained through coercion is not a mandate—it is a warning.
Policymakers and Diplomats Should Expect:
- More emergency decrees.
- More arrests.
- More centralization of power.
- More military solutions to political problems.
2. Economic Decline Will Accelerate
Ethiopia’s economy is already in distress:
- High inflation
- Debt crisis
- Declining investment
- Suspended donor support
A government lacking legitimacy cannot negotiate effectively with creditors or investors. The economic crisis will deepen.
3. The Risk of State Fragmentation Grows
When political channels are closed, armed resistance becomes the default. Ethiopia risks drifting toward Lebanon-style paralysis or Sudan-style collapse if political dialogue remains impossible.
Abiy Ahmed’s Future: The Architect of His Own Crisis
It is impossible to discuss the election without addressing the fate of Abiy Ahmed, the man who has shaped—and shattered—Ethiopia’s political landscape.
- Short Term: He Will Tighten His Grip
Abiy will likely use the election to justify:
- Expanded security powers
- Intensified crackdowns
- Greater control over regional administrations
This may keep him in office, but it will not bring stability.
- Medium Term: His Position Becomes More Precarious
As the economy worsens and conflicts persist, Abiy’s political base will erode. Authoritarian systems often appear stable—until they suddenly are not.
- Long Term: The System He Built May Consume Him
History is unkind to leaders who rule through repression. Abiy may eventually face:
- Internal party revolt
- Military pressure
- International isolation
His political fate is tied to a system that is unsustainable.
In Summary: Ethiopia Deserves Better Than This
The June 1, 2026, election is not a democratic exercise. It is a national tragedy, a moment when Ethiopia could have chosen dialogue, reform, and reconciliation—but instead chose repression, denial, and authoritarian consolidation.
Ethiopia’s future will not be determined by this election. It will be determined by whether the country can eventually rebuild:
- Political pluralism
- Rule of law
- Regional autonomy
- Genuine democratic institutions
Until then, the election remains what critics call it: a shameful performance masking a profound national crisis.
Teshome Abebe, PH.D. a former Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs, is Professor of Economics and Faculty Laureate.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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