May 29, 2026

Aklog Birara (Dr)   

Al-Jazeera’s virtual image of an explosive and burning Ethiopia informs the Ethiopian people and the world community how irresponsible, clueless, delusional, and heartless Abiy Ahmed is as a person.  As a leader of all Ethiopia; he has failed. He cannot go back and restore what Ethiopians have lost under his watch. 

I urge you to concentrate and look at this map. It informs volumes concerning a human tragedy at a level unprecedented in Ethiopian history.  

Dr. Gregory Stanton of Genocide Watch characterizes Abiy Ahmed as Genocide prone, an attribution I share. This is why I characterize him as heartless and tyrannical.  

I do not remember a single day when an Ethiopian child, mother, the elderly, and others enjoyed peace under Abiy Ahmed. I do not remember a time when girls and women raped or abducted or relatives killed or forcibly removed from their homes did not cry.  

I do not remember when Ethiopian youth regardless of ethnicity or faith did not give up hope in their own country; leave their homeland and flee to the Middle East or other parts of the world in search of jobs. 

I do not remember a time when journalists who spoke the truth were not forced to flee. I do not remember a time when a person would take a risk and take land transport to see family and friends outside Addis Ababa and more, much more.  

Ethiopia’s social and economic, psychological environment is toxic. Any person in her/his right mind should think twice. There is no way Ethiopia could hold an election before restoring human security, peace, and stability in the country. This coming election is theatrical and farcical.  

The European Union In connection with the UN Human Rights Council and the Economist forewarned Ethiopians that Abiy Ahmed must create political space, respect human rights, and freedom before holding the next election. The Economist alerted the international community that Abiy will win the election. His party is competing against itself. His victory will, however, not save Ethiopia.  

On May 29, 2026, Al-Jazeera put it bluntly and accurately. “Ethiopia has faced near-continuous conflict since 2020, with fighting in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara. Ethiopia will head to the polls on June 1 for its first nationwide elections since the formal end of the Tigray war, a devastating two-year conflict from 2020 to 2022 that concluded with a peace agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).”  

The report opines that “More than 50.5 million voters have registered to participate in the vote, which is held every five years, with all 547 parliamentary seats up for grabs. Since 2018, the country has been run by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose Prosperity Party holds 457 out of the country’s 547 seats.”  

In the last election, Abiy’s party won 457 of 547 seats. There is no viable and credible competition this time.  

Those registered to vote report in confidence Abiy’s massive cadre of people travel with security support and pressure or provide material incentives to voters to vote for the same ruling party that runs the show. This amounts to election under duress. The outcome is predictable as foreshadowed by the Economist: Abiy Wins and Ethiopia remains in limbo.  

Ethiopia’s trouble is institutional and structural. Electing the same party would mean the problem will persist and get worse. 

Why? Ethiopia’s ethnic groups are polarized and armed to the teeth.

“The East African country is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, with more than eighty distinct groups. The Oromo are the largest, making up about 35 percent of the population, concentrated in the south and central regions. The Amhara are the second largest, about 24 percent, and have historically been the politically dominant group. Other significant groups include the Somali (7 percent), in the east; the Tigrayan (6 percent), concentrated in the northern Tigray region; and the Sidama (4 percent), in the southern highlands. Various other groups make up the rest of the country.”  

Ethiopia, in short, is a multiethnic country. But Abiy Ahmed and his Oromo elite dominated Prosperity Party operate as if the country belongs to one ethnic group, namely Oromo. The party controls all key institutions. In other words, Abiy’s party has captured the state and government.  When elected, he will solidify his power. He will justify more assaults and destruction. 

Democratic representation is no more. Abiy gutted democratic institutions and the culture itself. The 

1995 Constitution has subdivided this ancient and huge country “into 12 regional states and two chartered cities (Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa), each largely organized around a dominant ethnic group, a system introduced in 1992 and formalized in the 1995 constitution.”  

Ethnic elites in charge of each regional state oversee national resources. They pick who belongs in their state. They exercise the right to expel those they consider aliens.  

Their local militias or special forces, often, in collaboration with federal agencies maim, kill, or expel undesirables. This is the case, especially concerning the Amhara population in Oromia and in Southern nations and Addis Ababa.  

By design, Ethiopia’s administrative structure resembles Apartheid.  

The ethnic federal system has outlived its value. Far from empowering indigenous people to manage their local affairs and control their resources; the system pits one ethnic group against another. This creates a vicious cycle—permanent lawlessness, abductions, conflict and war. Abiy’s regime has elevated Ethiopia’s ethnic polarization to new heights.  

I would like for the reader to consider Ethiopia’s war of terror by considering three catastrophic wars: the war in the North between the federal government and the Tigray Peeople’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2020-2022; the ongoing war Abiy initiated against Amhara in 2023; and the war in Oromia. I

Is there anything left?  

The war between Abiy Ahmed’s national defense forces and the TPLF and allies caused the deaths of an estimated one million lives. Thousands of Afar and Amhara also perished. This war alone cost Ethiopia more than $40 billion.  

Abiy Ahmed declared a state of emergency against the Amhara region in August 2023. Abiy Ahmed declared this war against the fact that Amhara militia and special forces fought side by side with Abiy Ahmed’s defense forces and saved the day. Abiy owes his power to this group he now targets for extinction.  

I urge the reader to consider the facts of continuous war under Abiy Ahmed and ask “Why. Ethiopians would want to elect a warmonger for five more years. Those who vote for him and his party are saying it is ok for you to maim, kill, persecute, arrest, expel and displace me.  

Cannot Ethiopians learn from Kenyans and several others near and far? 

Consider the three front wars and judge.  

a) Amhara (2023-present)  

“Amhara militias fought alongside federal troops in the Tigray war, but that alliance collapsed when the federal government reached a peace deal with the TPLF. As Prime Minister Abiy moved to rein in the Amhara militias, relations deteriorated sharply. Fighting between the Amhara Fano self-defense force and federal forces has continued into 2026, with battle events recorded across more than thirty-one districts spanning eleven zones in the Amhara region.” Attacks against Amhara are massive and relentless.  

“According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor, between January 1, 2022, and May 15, 2026, more than 7,400 attacks have been recorded across the country.”  

Abiy Ahmed’s bombardments target mostly Amhara. “The Amhara region emerged as the most volatile area, registering more than half (3,719) of the attacks. In Oromia, the country’s most populous region, 2,735 attacks were recorded due to an ongoing armed rebellion led by OLA alongside separate instances of communal clashes.”   

b) Oromia (2019-present)  

“Since 2019, conflict between Oromia regional forces, the ENDF, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has killed thousands of civilians. The OLA, which seeks autonomy for ethnic Oromos, has also targeted ethnic Amharas living in Oromia and border areas. Despite a December 2024 peace agreement signed by the federal government and an OLA faction, government forces continue to commit enforced disappearances and attacks on civilians, including through air and drone attacks.”   

c) Tigray   

Despite the devastating war in 202-2022, there still is no peace in Tigray or with Tigray. It is among the most volatile.  

These wars are devastating in human capital and economic terms. Sadly, there is no end.  

In conclusion, three-quarters of Ethiopia is at war with the federal government.  

So, holding an election when Ethiopia is at war is insane. The election lacks credibility. Abiy will compete against himself and win. 

I am afraid Ethiopia will continue to face an uncertain future.  

The ethnic configuration on the following page tells us why Ethiopia is in a mess!!!! 

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com  

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