July 17, 2026
Ethiopia’s never ending ethnic-elite -Inflicted crisis
Aklog Birara (Dr)
“Diversity is part of your strength” Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria
Ethiopian political elites have a disastrous mindset and recurring history of settling political, historical and social differences and past grievances through demeaning verbal assaults and the use of force.
This recurring phenomenon poses a direct threat to the very survival of ancient Ethiopia. The EPRDF government led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its successor the Oromo elite dominated Prosperity Party have made matters worse. Two asymmetrical narratives emerge under the Prosperity Party model of governance: the façade of commitment to Ethiopia’s sovereign or national interests on the one hand; and animus towards non-Oromo, especially Amhara on the other. The later mindset and narrative are consequential. Amhara is, after all, a core part of Ethiopia.
Ethiopians have yet to accept the notion that the country’s diversity is a source of riches and immense potential. Each of the country’s nationalities possesses indigenous knowledge, experience, culture and material resources that can contribute to growth and development. This requires genuine commitment to fair play, justice, acceptance and inclusivity. This requires community engagement, participation and fair representation in national institutions in the form of public policy. This requires rejection of single ethnic group hegemony. This requires cessation of demeaning remarks against any ethnic or faith group.
Ethnic elite entrepreneurship is anathema to inclusive development
At the heart of Ethiopia’s current crisis is the ethnicization of governance and the capture of national institutions by the governing ethnic elite. Irrespective of ethnic affiliation or faith Ethiopian society suffers from rapacious greed and administrative malpractice perpetrated by ethnic elite entrepreneurs like the TPLF and its successor the Prosperity Party. You cannot achieve normalcy let alone prosperity for all while you apply punitive measures against those you consider inimical to your supremacy.
Ethiopia’s lead problem is domestic. The Abiy government has suffocated civic and political space and made Ethiopia vulnerable to all types of threat. Ethiopia’s domestic crisis under Abiy Ahmed and the regime’s brutality against the population is the single most important factor that emboldens foreign powers to surround and conduct proxy wars against Ethiopia.
In a penetrating analysis entitled “As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy” July 17, 2026, International Crisis Group Project Director for the Horn of Africa Alan Boswell writes:
“The Horn of Africa, sitting across from the Arabian Peninsula on the western shores of the Red Sea, is one of the world’s most tumultuous regions. Two of its component countries, Eritrea and South Sudan, are still newly sovereign, having emerged from decades of conflict to achieve independence in 1993 and 2011, respectively. Breakaway Somaliland, which wants to follow suit, has been self-governed since Somalia’s military government collapsed in 1991.
Ethiopia, the region’s landlocked heavyweight with some 120 million people, has lurched from one upheaval to another over the past century. Its last decade has been especially turbulent, after a 2018 change in government led to a civil war in the Tigray region. That war pitted new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which prior to his election had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly 30 years; it was one of the most lethal conflicts in recent decades, with a death toll estimated in the hundreds of thousands. Though the war ended in 2022, tensions are still running high, due in no small part to spiraling enmity between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The latter allied with Abiy in the 2020-2022 conflict but has now switched sides to make common cause with the TPLF.”
Abiy Ahmed Ali’s regime does not operate alone. External powers, especially the UAE is involved heavily in Ethiopia’s domestic politics and in its entanglement with the Sudanese civil war.
Boswell opines:
“Sudan’s fragmentation is shaking the Horn to the core. Outside powers have long meddled in the region, but the war in Sudan has seen their involvement reach an alarming new level. Several countries have fueled the conflict, pouring in arms and financing that have kept both sides in fighting shape at critical moments. Occasionally, these outside actors have reshaped the battlefield by introducing new technology, especially drones and air defense systems. Saudi Arabia, which tried at first to stay neutral, is now perhaps the army’s most important diplomatic partner, while Egypt and Türkiye are also key backers. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has provided heavy support to the RSF, while several of Sudan’s neighbors (mostly those friendly with Abu Dhabi) have allowed the RSF to use their territory for arms transfers and troop movements. The UAE continues to deny helping the RSF, a factor that complicates serious peacemaking efforts since it has often stifled frank discussion of what ending the war would take.”
Ethiopia today is surrounded by external enemies
Similarly, Abiy Ahmed has befriended the UAE and acquired drones and other military machinery that his regime uses against domestic contestants. The UAE is therefore complicit in Ethiopia’s ongoing crisis. By aligning his regime with the UAE, Abiy Ahmed has made it possible for Arab and other nations like Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan to fuel Ethiopia’s already flammable domestic wars and conflict. Under Abiy Ahmed Ethiopia is losing friends and creating enemies across the board.
“Saudi Arabia together with Egypt has been strengthening its ties with Eritrea and Djibouti, Red Sea littoral states that have both fallen out with the UAE. Both worry about how Abu Dhabi’s ally Ethiopia will pursue its growing ambitions to gain access to the sea. Prime Minister Abiy has appeared keenest on reacquiring Assab, once Ethiopia’s main port, which came under Eritrea’s sovereignty when the latter attained independence.”
I have always defended Ethiopia’s legitimate access to the sea. It lost such access because of the TPLF and its animosity to Ethiopia’s rights. Such access is attainable in my estimation through diplomatic and political means rather than through war. Why not propose a Horn of Africa Common market? A Federation with Eritrea and the like?
I agree with the Crisis Group that “The spike in tensions between the Gulf states may be especially acute in the Horn, but it is also manifesting elsewhere. In December 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which not long ago collaborated against the Houthi rebels who control much of Yemen, clashed dramatically over that country’s Hadramawt region. There, an offensive by the UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) near Saudi Arabia’s borders infuriated Riyadh. Local Yemeni forces, supported by Saudi airstrikes, expelled the STC forces.”
I draw your attention especially to the following assessment that I share.
“The informal blocs forming on both sides of the Sudanese civil war exacerbate the risk. Those that tend to be on the army’s side include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye, Qatar, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia. Those often lining up with the UAE (and, often, with the RSF) are Ethiopia, breakaway Somaliland and Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region, as well as Uganda and Chad.”
The axis of powers emerging has direct relevance to Ethiopia’s future. This suggests to me that Ethiopia must settle its domestic conflicts fast. This may turn out to be wishful thinking because Ethiopia today lacks farsighted leadership committed to the common good.
“The worry is that states in both camps will carry the enmities nurtured in Sudan into other flashpoints, increasing the risk that violence breaks out and spreads. Two new developments in the Horn are particularly worrying in this regard.
First, the testiness between Ethiopia and Sudan’s army-led government is veering toward open antagonism and proxy conflict. The RSF appears to enjoy a degree of freedom of movement in Ethiopia along the border with Sudan’s Blue Nile state, and reports have documented a flow of equipment through Ethiopia to the front in Kordofan. Sudan also accuses Ethiopia of allowing the UAE to fly drones from Ethiopian territory into Sudan, including one that struck Khartoum in early May. Ethiopia and the UAE deny these charges, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia have issued statements backing the army’s position (though without naming Ethiopia directly). Meanwhile, Addis Ababa sees the Sudanese army as allying with its domestic foes, notably the TPLF, as well as external adversaries Egypt and Eritrea. The force known as Army 70 is a special sore spot for Addis Ababa: predominantly comprised of thousands of Tigrayan Ethiopians, it is based in eastern Sudan and has fought the RSF alongside the Sudanese army.”
Ethiopia’s core problem is presented below.
“Secondly, Ethiopia’s internal quarrels are getting hotter and more bound up with regional disagreements. In a major escalation in April, the TPLF announced it was restoring its chair Debretsion Gebremichael (who led Tigray during the 2020-2022 war) as regional president, dissolving the interim administration formed under the 2022 peace deal. Thus far, Abiy has responded cautiously to the provocation, for instance remarking on 7 July that he wants peace despite those (he did not name them) pushing for a new war in Tigray. Yet it remains unclear what will happen now. The regional picture is aggravating the situation, with Abiy, whose party was returned to power on 1 June, viewing the TPLF as in cahoots with his opponents Eritrea and the Sudanese army. Addis Ababa appears unlikely to swallow the status quo indefinitely, while the TPLF also appears to be gearing up for a fight with a mass conscription drive.”
For reasons that escape me, the Crisis Group neglected to highlight the explosive war taking place in the Amhara and Oromia regions. I would argue that the tension between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF alone does not present the full picture.
Deescalation and preventive diplomacy must start from Ethiopia. It is only then Ethiopians together can muster the will to defend their country’s sovereign rights and territorial integrity from foreign interference and aggression.
I suggest that Ethiopia faces external threats largely because it suffers from an internal crisis: lack of equitable treatment, peace, justice, the rule of law, respect for civic and human rights, religious freedom, and more critical lack of accountability.
It is against this environment that the so-called “historical conference on national: renewal” took place on July 15, 2026. It is reported that four thousand people attended.
I am among the most fervent supporters of dialogue. I chaired hundreds of meetings on the subject at the World Bank and beyond. The value added is immense.
“Silence is betrayal,” Dr. Martin Luther King
I took a closer look at the composition of the audience at the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission Conference —young people, women, faith leaders, the elderly, ordinary folks, military personnel, diplomats, and a cross-section of nationalities. This cross-section and representation are important in soul-searching, in the pursuit of a better path and in healing the multiple wounds the Ethiopian people have endured for almost fifty years.
The size of the audience is not surprising. After all, Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa and the tenth most populous in the world. One can discern an array of curiosity and concern among participants.
Missing at this forum are Ethiopians who have taken up arms to topple the government. They took up arme because of lack of equitable treatment, peace, justice, the rule of law, respect for civic and human rights, religious freedom, and more critical lack of accountability.
They took up arms because the government did not respond to their demands. They took up arms because their voices were not heard. They took up arms because the government violated human rights, the rule of law and the justice system. This poses a gap in the consultation process.
I fear the international community, regional entities and those who attended this huge conference were dead “silent” concerning the root causes of the Ethiopian crisis. In my mind, this is a form of “betrayal” as Dr. Martin Luther King put it. Even if you disagree with betrayal; it behooves you to consider complicity. Because none expressed ethnic cleansing and or genocide. None expressed outrage at the persecution of Christiana or Muslims or ordinary people by their own government or others.
Against the above fact, I listened to the above highly publicized and well-attended forum. For those of us like me who trusted Abiy Ahmed Ali would do the right thing for the right reasons; the “Messiah’s” change of heart is deceptive. He sponsored the forum at the height of a huge crisis of his government’s making.
What is not said at the forum is more compelling than what was verbalized
What are the facts?
It is Abiy Ahmed who stimulates ethnic hatred and division. It is he who betrayed the trust of the Ethiopian people including Oromo, welcomed the IMF and the World Bank and claimed borrowing from these institutions is like “borrowing from a mother.” it is he who said he would “die fighting for the USA”. It is he who aligned Ethiopia with the UAE sponsoring Sudan’s RSP on Ethiopian soil. It is he who carried out war against the TPLF and caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. It is who declared a state of emergency against the Amhara population slaughtering innocent civilians and destroying economic and social infrastructure using drones paid for by Ethiopian taxpayers. It is under his watch that daily life has become untenable in the Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and other regions and that abduction is widespread.
It is under his watch poverty is rising and income inequality widening. It is under his watch that the value of the Birr has literally collapsed.
In short, the crisis is systemic and structural. It is institutional. It is governance.
Among the four thousand participants and speakers is Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria. I was impressed by his eloquent description of the Nigerian case and its similarities to that of Ethiopia.
Addressing his audience, he drew attention to these Ethiopian strengths:
“The diversity of its population. Status as the hub or capital of Africa. Immense population. A huge diaspora. Potential as the breadbasket of Africa” and more.
Economic growth highlighting increase in wheat production.”
He could have beefed up and augmented his presentation by including the following: facts about Ethiopia. These are important in large part they present the positive contributions of Amhara to the evolution of the Ethiopian state and government over centuries.
A long and distinguished history as an independent country. The only one in Africa and among the few in the entire world.
One of the major sources of humankind.
One of two Christiann countries on the planet and home to three major faiths; Christianity, Judaism and Islam that coexist side by side.
Emperor Menelik, an Amhara, who mobilized Ethiopians and defeated Italian imperialism at the battle of Adwa.
One of the few countries in the world with its own written alphabet, Amharic.
Nevertheless, I welcomed President Obasanjo’s powerful presentation referring the lessons of experience from the Nigerian civil war (1967 to 1970) that tore the country apart.
In this tragic war an estimated one to three million people perished directly from the war, starvation and famine. Obasanjo was a general then.
No one really knows the number of Ethiopian civilians who have perished under the watch of Abiy Ahmed. It is more than one million. Sadly, the war targeting ordinary citizens, especially Amhara, rages while conversation on the future of the country is taking place.
There is no argument that Ethiopia faces an existential threat. The Abiy PP regime is primarily responsible for this domestic threat and for Ethiopia’s vulnerability from external threats. There is no argument that Ethiopia deserves inclusive and soul-searching dialogue.
I fully subscribe to the fundamental premise that after 35 years of civil conflict and war that cost lives and immense economic resources, the opportunity to overhaul the ethnic federal system exists and the time is now.
But the Dialogue Commission cannot do what the governing party is unable or unwilling to do; for example, stop the war without preconditions. It is the ruling party that controls the pillars of punishing military, police and intelligence power. It is the Aby government that uses drones, military aircraft and tanks killing, wounding civilians and destroying social and economic infrastructure. It is the same government that squanders hundreds of billions of Birrs in non-priority sectors.
On the surface the forum seems normal and the speeches from those in attendance, including the prime minister, appear sincere and good to be true.
What is missing is confidence building
Had Abiy Ahmed and party determined that the way out of Ethiopia’s current self-made crisis is to change in fundamental ways; then, he could have considered the following immediate confidence building measures:
1/ Immediate cessation of the war on all fronts.
2/ Release all political prisoners immediately and without preconditions.
3/ Declare that the regime will no longer terrorize, harass, arrest, expel and displace the Annuak, Amhara, Gurage, Somali, Tigrean and other people from their homes and lands.
4/ Declare publicly that the regime is willing and ready to convene an inclusive conference with armed and non-armed groups with the intent of arriving at common ground including a transitional government of national unity and the establishment of an independent commission towards restorative justice like South Africa and other best practices.
5/ Commit publicly that the prime minister and members of his party are willing and ready to no longer demean, propagate hatred and vitriol against any ethnic or faith group.
6/ Commit publicly willingness that an independent and competent body or commission may or can hold Abiy Ahmed, members of his government and all others accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes of genocide accountable
None of the presenters, including the prime minister, expressed any of the above.
The commitment and wishes of members of the Commission notwithstanding, I opine that the forum is a façade for domestic and international consumption.
Watch “በሃይማኖት አባቶች ፀሎት የተጀመረው የሀገራዊ ምክክር ጉባዔ የመክፈቻ ሥነ ሥርዓት” on YouTube
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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