Posted by: Hanad Askar
Security analysts caution that renewed violence in Tigray would have consequences far beyond Ethiopia’s borders. The Horn of Africa remains one of the continent’s most volatile regions, with conflicts in neighbouring Sudan and persistent instability in parts of Somalia already stretching regional security resources.
23 July, 2026
ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia’s political tensions have deepened after opposition figures accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government of pursuing policies that could reignite war in the northern Tigray region, raising fresh concerns over the durability of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement.
In a statement issued this week, opposition leaders alleged that the federal government is deliberately centralising power while politically marginalising Tigray, warning that such actions risk dismantling the fragile peace established after one of Africa’s deadliest recent conflicts.
The accusations come as Ethiopia moves toward national elections that several major opposition parties have chosen to boycott, citing concerns over political freedoms, electoral fairness and the broader democratic environment. The election preparations are unfolding amid growing uncertainty in several regions of the country, including Tigray, where political divisions remain unresolved.
Fragile peace under pressure
The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022, formally ended a two-year civil war between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict claimed tens of thousands of lives, displaced millions and left much of northern Ethiopia devastated.
Although large-scale fighting ceased following the accord, many of its key provisions including the withdrawal of foreign forces, resolution of disputed territories, the return of displaced civilians and comprehensive political reconciliation remain only partially implemented. Analysts have repeatedly warned that these unresolved issues continue to fuel instability.
Political divisions deepen
Recent months have seen growing friction between Ethiopia’s federal authorities and competing political factions within Tigray. The extension of the Tigray Interim Administration, coupled with disputes over political legitimacy and governance, has intensified concerns that the peace process is losing momentum.
Opposition leaders argue that Addis Ababa’s approach is eroding trust and narrowing political space rather than encouraging reconciliation. They contend that increasing federal control and the exclusion of dissenting voices could create conditions for renewed confrontation.
Regional stability at stake
Security analysts caution that renewed violence in Tigray would have consequences far beyond Ethiopia’s borders. The Horn of Africa remains one of the continent’s most volatile regions, with conflicts in neighbouring Sudan and persistent instability in parts of Somalia already stretching regional security resources.
Diplomatic observers have urged all parties to recommit to the Pretoria Agreement through dialogue, warning that political disputes should be resolved through negotiation rather than military confrontation.
For many residents of Tigray, memories of the devastating 2020–2022 war remain vivid. As Ethiopia approaches another critical political milestone, fears are growing that without meaningful implementation of the peace agreement and broader political reconciliation, the country could once again face the prospect of armed conflict in its north.
HORSEED MEDIA