Forecast
. Throughout its history, Ethiopia’s geography
has enabled it to consistently assert power
beyond its borders, no matter who its leaders
have been.
. The loss of direct access to the sea after Eritrea
seceded hampered Ethiopia’s economic development;
regaining control of that coastline will continue to
be part of its long-term strategy.
.The geographic potential for agricultural development,
as well as the densely populated Ethiopian Highlands,
provide the cornerstones of Ethiopia’s ability to create
wealth and wield power in the future.
Analysis
Among its African contemporaries, Ethiopia stands out as
one of the few countries that has existed in essentially the
same form since antiquity, albeit under different names. Its
geographic position at the heart of the Horn of Africa has made
it a crossroads for trade, helping it to maintain a continuity that
has lasted from ancient times through the colonial era to today.
While modern Ethiopia’s interests are much more tightly focused
on its core than the far-flung reach its ancient predecessors
commanded, its geography still makes it a key player in global
trade and regional politics. Although its importance in international
trade has diminished with technological advances in transport
and a shift away from the resources it provides or conveys, exports
are still a focus of its economy.
Ethiopia rose to prominence as a regional empire known as the
Kingdom of Aksum in the first century A.D. The kingdom had
existed for centuries prior, but it began to flourish thanks to
trade between the Roman Empire and ancient India. But its
growing wealth and influence wasn’t solely a function of its
position along vital coastal trade routes. Rather, the core of
present-day Ethiopia, and its historic predecessors, has always
been the Ethiopian Highlands. The large protected area of fertile
lands and major rivers became the seat of a power that would
hold sway in its nearby region and beyond the continent.
Unlike other African empires of old, which in their pre-colonial
histories enjoyed similar prominence in trade with Europe but
were unable to expand their activities much beyond generating
wealth through that trade, the Kingdom of Aksum parlayed its
economic success into political power. It emerged as a regional
force that established hegemony over significant portions of the
continent and extended its reach across the Red Sea. Within Africa,
the Kingdom of Aksum captured the Kingdom of Kush, which
corresponds more or less with today’s Sudan. In doing so it seized
control of trade from the African interior, as well as caravan routes
from the Middle East. In a geopolitical sense, overcoming the
dominance of powers along the Nile River corridor was no small feat.
By the sixth century, the kingdom was sending its armies
beyond Africa. Having adopted Christianity as its official religion,
the empire embarked on an expedition against Jewish persecution
of Christians in modern-day Yemen. But the rise of Islam in the
seventh century led to the economic isolation of the Kingdom of
Aksum as its neighbors embraced the new religion. While Aksum
remained a center of Christianity, its power waned, and the land
now known as Ethiopia has not since managed to reclaim the
mantle of a true trade empire.
Steering Clear of Colonialism
Ethiopian power waxed again through its embrace of modernity.
During the Middle Ages, Ethiopia (known as Abyssinia) harnessed
new technologies — particularly agricultural techniques such
as terrace farming and water resource management with dams
and cisterns — to help it thrive as a local feudal empire.
Ethiopia also attempted to overcome its isolation by interacting
closely with foreign powers. In the 16th century, the kingdom’s
leaders persuaded Portugal to send its troops to help defeat a
Muslim army that had overrun it. In the 19th century, under
Emperor Tewodros II, Ethiopia forged an alliance with Great
Britain. At the same time, it developed a modern centralized
legal and administrative system. The kingdom’s relationship
with the British Empire turned sour, however, when Queen
Victoria failed to respond to a request for military assistance.
Instead, Tewodros II took several British citizens hostage.
When a British punitive expedition laid siege to the capital
in response, Tewodros II killed himself with a pistol that had
been a gift from the queen.
In 1893, Italy attempted to invade Ethiopia from what was
then Italian Eritrea. By that time, Ethiopia had fostered a
close relationship with another orthodox Christian nation,
Russia, which provided it with military training and arms.
The threat of invasion also attracted the attention of France
and Britain, which both wanted to protect their own colonial
interests by thwarting Italy’s expansion. Though they didn’t
go so far as to support Ethiopia in battle, they did lend
diplomatic aid. But there was another reason for the eventual
defeat of the Italian campaign — a development showcasing
Ethiopia’s potential for empire. Instead of succumbing to
competition with rival African kingdoms and tribes, as Italy
had expected, Ethiopia forged a pragmatic alliance, leaving
the Italians to face a more significant force than they had
expected, and their invasion eventually was beaten back.
With the victory, Ethiopia preserved its status as the sole
African power that was never subjected to colonialism.
Four decades later, hostilities between Ethiopia and Italy
resumed after Italy built a fortress inside Ethiopian territory.
This time, Italy won the clash, and the Second Italo-Ethiopian
War ended with Italian forces occupying Ethiopia until 1941,
when Allied troops drove them out. Emperor Haile Selassie,
who had fled into exile when the Italians seized Addis Ababa
in 1936, returned to power and continued to modernize the
imperial monarchy. Under his rule, however, Ethiopia came
to face one of its most significant challenges, and its failure
continues to call into question Ethiopia’s true capabilities as a state.
The Critical Loss of Sea Access
In the 1960s, Eritrea — by then a province of Ethiopia —
rebelled against rule by Addis Ababa, depriving the country
of its entire coastline. This has prevented Ethiopia from
having full control over its exports and reviving its historical
role as a trade hub. The unpopularity of the war against the
Eritrean separatists also eventually led to the emergence of
an Ethiopian Marxist movement, which gained the support
of the Soviet Union and brought Mengistu Haile Mariam to
power after a coup toppled Selassie and ended the imperial
monarchy in 1974. It was replaced by the Dergue, the
communist committee that ruled the country until 1991,
when an alliance of rebel groups brought it down. But the
same rebel struggle that defeated the Dergue also led to
Eritrea’s independence, and left Ethiopia without direct
access to the Red Sea.
These developments transformed Ethiopia into its current
political and geographic form. The Federal Democratic Republic
of Ethiopia continues to exert considerable regional influence,
although its lack of coastal access has dampened its
economic potential. Ethiopia, however, has retained the
ability to shape its region to its own advantage. Ethiopian
forces have eliminated any opportunity for Somalia to re-emerge
as a threat, as it did in the late 1970s when the two countries
fought a war, while keeping Somali instability at bay. Ethiopia
has also employed the help of rebel factions in South Sudan
and Somalia as a means to limit the expansion of those
countries’ influence in East Africa.
Economically, Ethiopia heavily depends on foreign
investment, particularly from China and the Gulf
states. It has used those funds to develop its
infrastructure with an eye toward unlocking
even greater potential within the country. Among
those projects is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam, which when completed will provide capacity
for power generation to support industry and investment.
Transportation has been another focus of the Ethiopian
government, and the opening of a railway connecting
Addis Ababa with the port city of Djbouti will increase
its access to the outside world. Right now, the country’s
economy is oriented toward the development of agricultural
exports, but infrastructure improvements and a large
population should also enable Ethiopia to create a low-end
manufacturing base.
To fulfill its potential, Ethiopia will still have to overcome
several hurdles, including enduring internal frictions. So
far the minority government that came to power after the
overthrow of the Dergue has kept low-intensity rebellions
at bay, but it has recently had to contend with a wider
insurrection by its two largest ethnicities. The Oromo and
Amhara revolts in the country have damaged Ethiopia’s
reputation as a stable destination for investment, causing
trade to decline.
In the longer term, though, Ethiopia will continue to enjoy
the inherent advantages accorded by its geographic position,
no matter who rules it. After all, despite its history of political
upheaval, it has maintained considerable strength and resilience,
especially compared with its East African neighbors.
Source – Satenaw: