REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih
Fishermen hang their clothes out to dry on the banks of the Nile River in Cairo, April 16, 2013.
CAIRO — Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit transmitted a warning from the league to Ethiopia during the opening session of the fourth Arab Water Forum Nov. 26, saying, “Water security for Egypt — the biggest Arab country in terms of population — is part and parcel of the Arab national security.”
After announcing, on Nov. 12, the failure of negotiations to resolve the Renaissance Dam crisis with Ethiopia and Sudan, Egypt is now taking several measures to internationalize the Nile River quota crisis. Egypt mainly wants to establish an international coalition for the downstream countries harmed by the dam projects conducted by upstream countries. The measure was proposed during the Arab Water Forum, which was organized by the Arab Water Council and held in Cairo on Nov. 26-28, under the umbrella of the Arab League and in coordination with the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.
Egyptian and Arab officials talked about the internationalization of the Renaissance Dam issue on the sidelines of the Arab Water Forum.
Saudi Prince Khalid bin Sultan, the honorary president of the Arab Water Council, called for holding a water summit to face water piracy and terrorism. He said in his speech, “Water terrorism is as dangerous as any other kind of terrorism. We have to be armed with all methods to fight it.” He added that a force is needed to prevent water extortion.
Aboul Gheit noted that the Arab League is following up on the talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia with concern. He said, “We do not feel Ethiopia is willing to coordinate and cooperate much. Ethiopian plans to operate the dam and use its water for irrigation are still vague and worrying.”
Meanwhile, a meeting is scheduled in Cairo between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn at a date to be decided on, some time in mid-December. Desalegn will address the Egyptian parliament and discuss the Renaissance Dam establishment on the Blue Nile and Egypt’s concerns of the negative repercussions on its water share.
On Dec. 4, 19 members of parliament submitted a memorandum to Egyptian parliamentary speaker Ali Abdel Aal refusing to welcome Desalegn in parliament, as the visit could give Ethiopia the upper hand in international forums over Egypt.
Mahmoud Abu Zeid, the head of the Arab Water Council and former minister of water resources and irrigation, told Al-Monitor, “The Arab Water Forum discussed — with government officials and water experts representing 22 Arab and African countries in different sessions — ways to deal with conflicts over water shares in the Middle East and North Africa region.” He indicated that the council is trying to develop a global coalition of downstream countries to face the dominance and control of upstream countries with transboundary rivers over water.
Hussein el-Atifi, the coordinator of the forum and former minister of water resources and irrigation, told Al-Monitor, “Upstream countries like Ethiopia believe the agreements regulating the management of shared rivers with their neighbors conflict with their desire for sovereignty and control of river resources.”
One of the forum’s sessions — titled “Shared Water Resources” — discussed the actions of Ethiopia, a state from which 22 rivers flow, against seven of its neighbors that share rivers with it. Al-Monitor attended the session in which an official Somali convoy took part. Abdullah Elmi Mohammad, the head of the Somali Center for Water and Environment, explained the damages on Somalia due to Ethiopia’s construction of the Melka Wakena Dam on the Shebelle River.
During the session, Abu Zeid elaborated on Ethiopia’s construction of 15 dams, excluding the Renaissance Dam, on the shared rivers with seven neighboring countries without consulting anyone, which constitutes a threat for these countries’ water security. There are four dams on the Blue Nile shared with Sudan, South Sudan and Egypt; the Upper Atbara Dam that is shared with Eritrea and Sudan; four dams on Awash River shared with Djibouti; two dams on Shebelle River shared with Somalia; and three dams on Omo River shared with Kenya.
Abu Zeid noted, “The total annual hydropower capacity in Ethiopia is about 3,696 megawatts. Ethiopia’s current export of electricity, its national hydropower annual potential of 45,000 MW generated from all its rivers and its plans to export electricity generated from the new 6,000 MW of the Renaissance Dam confirm that the country does not need the power it wants to generate from the Renaissance Dam for local demand.”
Ashraf Badr, the media adviser at the Arab Water Council, told Al-Monitor, “Ethiopia’s greed to produce hydroelectric power from dams aims at monopolizing the energy export markets rather than fulfilling local demand.”
Somalia’s Minister of Irrigation Salim Aliyu told reporters on the sidelines of the forum, “Somalia is currently negotiating with Ethiopia through the East African Community to reach an agreement on the joint management of transboundary rivers.”
Egypt started mobilizing Arab support on the Renaissance Dam issue through various steps. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met with his Saudi counterpart, Adel al-Jubeir, on Nov. 14, and the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the kingdom understands the Egyptian concerns about its water security. The Egyptian government also issued a statement Nov. 15, in which it affirmed that it has taken the necessary measures at all levels because its water security is one of the pillars of its national security.
Egypt’s former Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hossam Maghazi told Al-Monitor, “Egypt’s political escalation in the Renaissance Dam issue has become necessary. With the dead end that the technical negotiation path has reached, Ethiopia seems ready to start filling the dam reservoir in 2018.”
is the editor-in-chief of the parliamentary news division at Rose al-Yusuf. An expert in African affairs, Hussein has collaborated with the Nile Channel, writing and preparing newscasts. On Twitter: @walaahuseen
SOURCE – 
Egypt unable to find agreement in Renaissance Dam talks
Ayah Aman November 22, 2017
After Egypt declared the technical negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan regarding the Renaissance Dam as failed, it is now pursuing political and other means to address the crisis instead.
Ethiopian News Agency
A view of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia is seen in this undated photo.
CAIRO — Egypt has officially announced that the technical negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan over the Renaissance Dam have failed. The announcement came following a round of tripartite deliberations between all the countries’ ministers of water in Cairo on Nov. 11 and 12 regarding the completion of the impact assessment of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Egyptian Minister of Water and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty said in a Nov. 12 statement, “Egypt is worried about the failure of the technical negotiations because it jeopardizes the future of cooperation between Sudan and Ethiopia and their ability to agree on the Renaissance Dam and to avoid its potential risks while preserving Egypt’s water security.”
The statement of the Egyptian Ministry of Water and Irrigation was a bold revelation of the reality of the negotiations behind closed doors. The negotiations began when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Ethiopian and Sudanese counterparts signed the Declaration of Principles in March 2015 as a cooperation framework on the Renaissance Dam issue.
Ever since, Egypt has taken part in a series of deliberations involving experts and state officials. However, despite the deliberations, the two most contentious points concerning the filling and operation of the dam remain unresolved.
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia had formed a tripartite national committee that chose two French consultancy firms to conduct a technical study on the hydraulic, environmental, economic and social impact of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt and Sudan. After agreeing on the terms and the implementation method of the studies, contracts were signed in September 2016 to conduct the studies over a period of 11 months.
But the disputes began surfacing when the consultancy firms started their work.
In the statement issued by the Egyptian Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Egypt accused Sudan and Ethiopia of trying to introduce amendments to the Declaration of Principles “in their interest, knowing that such amendments would undermine the results of the studies and render them useless.”
An official in the Egyptian negotiation delegation revealed to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity the real reasons behind the dispute, saying, “Egypt wants the technical studies to produce clear results about the negative effects of the Renaissance Dam on its water security, in particular the impact on water flow rates to the High Dam lake, the impact on the salinity in Egyptian agricultural lands in the Delta and the drop in electricity generation in the High Dam. But Ethiopia and Sudan are trying to direct the studies in a way that portrays the Renaissance Dam as having positive impacts and plays up shared interests.”
The official added, “The most contentious issue is the impact of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt’s current utilization of [its historical share of] the Nile Water guaranteed under the 1959 agreement, which Ethiopia refuses to acknowledge. The dispute is pivotal, and the Egyptian delegation cannot let it go it because it is a pillar to ensuring Egypt’s water interests.”
The official noted, “Sudan raised another issue of dispute related to the suitability of the mechanism to measure its share of the Nile Water, estimated at 18.5 billion cubic meters.”
He went on, “Egypt realized the danger of wasting time on the technical track in light of the intransigence of the other parties. It was important to reveal the truth after its efforts to use legal and technical arguments to support its stance in the course of the negotiations failed. A plan to take diplomatic, legal and technical action to garner regional and international support for the Egyptian position is underway.”
Sudan condemned Egypt’s statement. Sudanese Ambassador to Egypt Abdul Hamid Abdul Mahmoud told Al-Monitor, “Egypt’s reaction stirs suspicion about the future of negotiations and does not pave the way for any sort of action, be it in the interest of Egypt or any of the negotiating parties.”
He asserted, “Sudan has tried to save the technical and political negotiations, and it has the right to take the path that would serve its interests best.”
Cairo did not stop with the press statement. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met with his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir on Nov. 14. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry released a press statement in the wake of the meeting, saying, “The kingdom understands Egypt’s concerns over its water security and the importance of committing to the rules of international law.”
Egypt’s Cabinet issued a statement during its first meeting following the Nov. 15 negotiations, saying, “We will take the necessary measures on all levels, since water security is central to Egypt’s national security.”
Rawiya Toufic, assistant professor at the University of Cairo and researcher at the German Development Institute, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt finally admitted the failure of the technical track, which reached a dead end. … Egypt still has to outline the next steps to overcome the crisis.”
She went on, “The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Irrigation as well as the cabinet should take action in the next phase to clarify Egypt’s stance on all levels to the public at home and abroad.”
Toufic argued, “Egypt’s presidential intervention at this point will bring nothing new to the table. The presidential summit of the Nile Basin countries in Uganda in June proved that. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Irrigation should take the lead now and give a clear idea of Egypt’s stance, the concessions it expects Ethiopia to make and what Egypt can offer in return.”
On Egypt’s escalatory steps so far, Toufic commented, “Legal action at this point might not give decisive results in Egypt’s favor, because there is no tangible harm done yet. Besides, the political tools are weak amid the complex regional context. Gulf countries are preoccupied with their disputes and do not hold real cards to pressure Ethiopia. Eritrea is also fighting its own internal demons, and Sudan’s stance is known and grows firmer by the day.”
With the deteriorating negotiations that have not produced any solutions to appease Egypt’s concerns about the Renaissance Dam, the Egyptian administration has no options left but to expose the truth of what is happening at the negotiation table and focus on direct ways of coming to agreements.
But like most Egypt’s moves in the matter, any further efforts are likely to come too late, as the Declaration of Principles recognizes Ethiopia’s right and sovereignty in building and operating the dam without binding it to any written pledges to involve Egypt in the storage and operation processes.
Found in: Infrastructure and architecture, Water supply and disputes
Ayah Aman is an Egyptian journalist for Al-Shorouk specializing in Africa and the Nile Basin, Turkey and Iran and Egyptian social issues. On Twitter: @ayahaman
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