By Conor Gaffey On 6/13/16 at 11:58 AM
Ethiopia Eritrea border
An Eritrean poses near a tank abandoned during the 1998-2000 border war with Ethiopia in Shambuko Town, Eritrea, December 23, 2005. The two countries have been in a “Cold War” scenario since the end of the conflict. Ed Harris/Reuters
Throughout the country’s 25-year history, Eritrea’s border with Ethiopia has been a hotly-disputed region.
Eritrea shares a 640-mile boundary with its Horn of Africa neighbor, from whom it only gained independence in 1991. The two countries fought a bloody two-year war over border boundaries between 1998 and 2000, since which bilateral relations have been characterized by a “no war, no peace” situation.
Now, Eritrea has blamed Ethiopia for clashes in the Tsorona region, about halfway along the border. The reported clashes have raised the specter of conflict in a region where tension is always high.
What’s Eritrea’s history with Ethiopia?
Until 1991, Eritrea was considered an autonomous region within Ethiopia. The latter’s decision to attempt to annex the former in 1961 sparked a 30-year independence war. Against a much-larger and better-equipped Ethiopian army, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front won the war and toppled Ethiopian President Mengistu Haile Mariam, with the assistance of Ethiopian rebels. Eritrea was recognized as an independent state by the international community in 1993 following a United Nations-backed referendum vote in favor of independence.
Why is the border a flashpoint?
A full-scale war broke out between Ethiopia and Eritrea in May 1998 and focused on the town of Badme, which both sides claimed belonged to them. Eritrea was found to have triggered the war by attacking Ethiopian troops around Badme, according to a 2005 ruling by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Claims Commission, a body based in The Hague that was established to deal with the conflict’s fallout. Over the next two years, tens of thousands of soldiers were killed on both sides in a bloody battle that achieved very little in terms of concrete boundary changes.
The conflict ended in December 2000 after a peace accord known as the Algiers Agreement was signed by both parties. One condition of the agreement was the establishment of a boundary commission that in 2002 ruled that Badme was part of Eritrea. While both countries initially accepted the ruling, Ethiopia later said it was dissatisfied with the boundary and Badme continues to be occupied by Ethiopian troops. “Eritrea and Ethiopia have essentially been in a Cold War since the last war in 1998-2000,” says Ahmed Salim of political risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence.
Eritrean soldier An Eritrean soldier looks through a spyhole on the frontline in Badme, Eritrea, March 2, 2000. Tens of thousands of people died in the two-year border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. SS/CLH/Reuters
What’s happened this time?
Following reports from residents living on the Ethiopian side of the border of hearing heavy gunfire, Eritrea accused Ethiopia on Sunday of infringing its territory. “The TPLF regime has… unleashed an attack against Eritrea on the Tsorona Central Front,” Eritrea’s Information Ministry said in a statement released overnight Sunday and reported by Reuters. The TPLF refers to the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, a member of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition.
Besides the claim from the Eritrean government in the capital Asmara, however, there is very little confirmed detail of what happened. Ethiopia’s Information Minister Getachew Reda told the BBC he was not aware of any fighting, and details coming out of Eritrea have been scant, with the country having a notoriously closed media.
What could the clashes lead to?
If significant fighting has occurred, it is unlikely that either side will want to escalate the conflict, according to Jason Mosley, a Horn of Africa expert and associate fellow at Chatham House. “It’s not in [Ethiopia’s] interest to precipitate the collapse of the Eritrean state. The Eritreans are certainly not in a position militarily to want to escalate to a full-scale conflict with Ethiopia,” says Mosley.
Eritrea is notorious for its conscription program. The compulsory national service program, which can often last for decades, continues to be indefinite, according to Amnesty International, despite the government in Asmara pledging in 2014 to limit national service to 18 months. The program is an oft-cited reason given by migrants and refugees fleeing the country—in 2015, Eritrea was the African country with the highest number of people applying for asylum in Europe. According to Mosley, “episodic reminders” of the “existential threat from Ethiopia” are useful to the Eritrean government in justifying its program. “Whatever the mechanics of what has or hasn’t happened… the Eritrean state will probably try to portray this to the fullest extent it can as evidence of a very aggressive Ethiopian posture,” says Mosley.
Are the clashes connected to Ethiopia’s Oromia crisis?
Since November 2015, Ethiopia has been dealing with large-scale protests among members of the Oromo ethnic group, the country’s majority ethnicity. These have resulted in a crackdown in which hundreds of people have been killed, according to Human Rights Watch. The Ethiopian government has said that Eritrea has backed the protests, which were initially sparked by plans to expand the capital Addis Ababa that would entail relocating Oromo farmer families.
People mourn the death of a man accused of protesting and shot by Ethiopian forces in Yubdo Village in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, December 17, 2015. Ethiopia has blamed the Oromo protests partially on Eritrea. ZACHARIAS ABUBEKER/AFP/Getty Images
But according to Mosley, the Oromia crisis is an internal affair and has nothing to do with Ethiopia and Eritrea’s border disputes. “[The Oromo protests] is the reaction from a certain educated strata of Ethiopian society about being completely blocked out of negotiations around the development planning,” says Mosley. “It’s not an Eritrean plot, this is an Ethiopian ruling party failing.”
Source – Newsweek LLC
U.N. Accuses Eritrea’s Leaders of Crimes Against Humanity
Eritrean Accused of Trafficking Migrants Is Captured in Sudan, Italy Says
Border Clashes Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Heighten Fears of War
By JEFFREY GETTLEMANJUNE 13, 2016
The outskirts of Asmara, the Eritrean capital, in February. Fresh border clashes between Ethiopia and Eritrea and recent talk of another border war have opened a vein of nationalism in Eritrea. Credit Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
NAIROBI, Kenya — The Eritrean Embassy in Kenya sent a text message alert Monday morning: The Ethiopians had attacked. Fighting on the border. Situation unfolding.
The jagged line separating Eritrea from its former ruler, Ethiopia, has been one of Africa’s most combustible flash points. Tens of thousands of soldiers died from 1998 to 2000 in a war that had been called as pointless as two bald men fighting over a comb.
As the news of renewed clashes in the rocky, barren frontier began to spread on Monday, many Ethiopians and Eritreans feared the worst. Witnesses said both sides were rushing troops to the Tsorona border area, and heavy artillery was apparently fired from both sides. On the Eritrean side, several people were reported to have been killed The reports of fighting and the lack of solid information raised fears that the two countries could be sliding once again toward all-out war.
But by Monday afternoon, the extent of the fighting was unclear. The Ethiopian government said Eritrea started it. Getting more information out of Eritrea is like trying to see into a pitch-dark room: The government is one of the most secretive, isolated and repressive nations in the world.
Just last week, a United Nations panel accused Eritrea’s leaders of committing crimes against humanity, including murder, rape and enslavement.
According to Meron Estefanos, a journalist and activist from Eritrea living in Sweden who maintains a large network of contacts in Africa, anger at the government is steadily rising within Eritrea, and the shelling across the border may have been started by Eritrea as a distraction.
Eritrean refugees who arrived in Cyprus in May as part of an European Union relocation program for asylum seekers. Each year, thousands of Eritreans try to flee the country, but many young people in Eritrea have said they are virtually imprisoned in a national program that requires them to serve indefinitely in the military or other branches of government. Credit Iakovos Hatzistavrou/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“There is no reason for Ethiopia to start a war right now,” Ms. Estefanos said. “It just doesn’t add up when everything is going their way.”
“But,” she added, “if there is a war, or the rumor of a war, it could be a way for the Eritrean government to get support and divert attention.”
Eritrea is a tiny country, with about one-sixteenth the population of Ethiopia, against which it won a celebrated war of liberation in the early 1990s. Since then, the government’s isolationist policies have created dire economic conditions, with shortages of electricity, water, gas and bread. Many young people in Eritrea have said they are virtually imprisoned in a national program that requires them to serve indefinitely in the military or other branches of government.
Each year, thousands of young Eritreans try to flee to Europe; in recent months, hundreds have drowned in the Mediterranean Sea, adding to the anti-government feelings, Ms. Estefanos said.
Recent talk of another border war against Ethiopia has opened a nationalistic vein.
“Here in Asmara, it’s peaceful despite #EthiopianAttacks against #Eritrea on the Tsorona front,” one Eritrean-American, using the handle Red Sea Fisher, wrote on Twitter on Monday, referring to Asmara, the Eritrean capital. “And you wonder why there’s national service?”
A ruling by an international commission, which both Eritrea and Ethiopia agreed to respect, awarded a piece of the disputed territory near the border to Eritrea. But Ethiopian troops still occupy that territory more than 10 years after the ruling was issued, and Eritrea has complained that the international community — especially the United States and Britain — has exerted little pressure to get the Ethiopians to leave.
Eritrea has used the dispute over the border to justify its war footing and the suspension of many civil liberties.
Analysts have said the discontent in Eritrea could erupt at any time.
Mutinous soldiers staged a coup attempt in 2013, which was quickly crushed. In that case, like the border clashes in the past two days, little is known about what really happened.
Source – The New York Times
Analysis: Ethiopia and Eritrea deploy weapons of mass distraction
Reports of skirmishes this weekend on the Eritrean-Ethiopia border raised fears of a repeat of the bloody war between the two nations. It came at a good time for both governments, however, who will be grateful for the distraction from other, more embarrassing stories. By SIMON ALLISON.
On Sunday, reports hit social media of fighting between Ethiopian and Eritrean troops on the heavily-militarised border between the two countries. The reports were unconfirmed but of deep concern: the last war between Ethiopia and Eritrea was one of the bloodiest in African history, claiming the lives of an estimated 70,000 people between 1998 and 2000.
Since then, tensions between the two countries have remained high, with the option of a return to all-out war unlikely but never completely off the table. Skirmishes between the two forces on the border are not infrequent, although analysts contacted by Daily Maverick suggest that the latest incident is more serious than usual.
So far, the only official confirmation of the recent fighting has come from the Eritrean government, which released a statement on Sunday blaming Ethiopia for the outbreak of violence.
“The TPLF regime has today, Sunday 12 June 2016, unleashed an attack against Eritrea on the Tsorona Central Front… the purpose and ramifications of this attack are not clear,” [sic] said Eritrea’s Information Ministry. The TPLF is the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, the dominant party in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition.
Ethiopian website HornAffairs claimed to have more details, but said that the cause of the fighting could not yet be determined. “… heavy fighting is going on the Tserona front of Ethiopian Eritrean border, multiple sources confirmed to HornAffairs. Fighting in the Tserona area of the border started since 5am at dawn and it is still ongoing. The sound of heavy artilleries is heard as far as Zalambessa to the east, locals confirmed. Heavy artillery from Eritrean army have hit areas close to civilian Kebeles in Tserona area. Ethiopian troops reportedly advanced into Eritrean land in some areas and brought captives to the border town Gerhu-sernay, according to one local source,” reported Daniel Berhane for the website.
Whatever the details, it is undeniable that these latest skirmishes come at a good time for both governments. Suspiciously good, perhaps, as the beating of the war drums might serve to distract observers from other, more embarrassing stories.
Let’s start with Eritrea. On Wednesday last week, a United Nations commission released a report on human rights abuses in Eritrea. Their findings were unequivocal, and damning. “Eritrea is an authoritarian state. There is no independent judiciary, no national assembly and there are no other democratic institutions in Eritrea. This has created a governance and rule of law vacuum, resulting in a climate of impunity for crimes against humanity to be perpetrated over a quarter of a century. These crimes are still occurring today,” said Mike Smith, chair of the commission.
Crimes alleged by the UN commission included enslavement, rape, torture, enforced disappearances and murder. Of particular concern is the country’s vast military conscription programme. Young Eritreans are forced into indefinite national service, often at little or no pay and in poor conditions. The government justifies this by citing the ever-present, looming threat from Ethiopia – a threat which the latest skirmishes only serve to emphasise. Convenient.
Eritrea is not the only country trying to bury bad news, however. Ethiopia has its own headlines that it would like to forget.
On Thursday last week, Ethiopian troops in Somalia – part of Amisom, the African Union Mission in Somalia – came under attack from Islamist militant group al-Shabaab, which claimed a major victory, saying it had killed at least 60 Ethiopian soldiers. Amisom, meanwhile, claimed to have repulsed the attack and killed 200 al-Shabaab militants in the process.
Although details are hard to verify, it’s clear that this is at minimum a bloody nose for Ethiopia; and perhaps even a humiliation similar to that suffered by Amisom’s Kenyan contingent in El Adde earlier this year. Either way, it’s not a good look for a country that prides itself on its military prowess. The attack also raises uncomfortable questions about what Ethiopian troops are really doing in Somalia, and what exactly they have achieved while there.
But these questions aren’t so easy to hear over the beating of those war drums. Coincidence or otherwise, it’s hard to shake the suspicion that the latest bout of fighting on the Eritrean-Ethiopian border has come at a very good time for both countries. DM
Photo: A file photo dated 21 September 2011 of Isaias Afwerki, President of Eritrea, during a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (unseen) at the United Nations headquarters in New York, New York, USA. EPA/TIM CLARY/POOL