A MISTAKE WITH A RISK OF DISASTROUS OUTCOMES

By a patriotic Ethiopian

By what even other names they may be called, Woyanne (TPLF) and Shabia (EPLF) are now at the helm of power in Ethiopia and Eritrea, respectively.  Both groups originated from the same tribal stalk marinated with European colonial and Arab petro-dollar influences, with startling similarities in a number of aspects before and after holding power.  The administrative “games” they implement in the name of government in their respective countries are basically the same as those they followed when they were rebel guerrilla fighters against Ethiopia.  As they were in their guerrilla years, they are still tribal, crude, harsh and backward in every aspect of their attitudes and activities.  After having been in power for about a quarter of a century, there is no any sign of genuine change in these attributes in both cases.  Although the two groups seem to disagree with each other in some instances, these factors, together with ethnic and political commonalities, bind them together more tightly to look out for each other’s interest when needed,

After Ethiopia and Eritrea fall in the hands of TPLF and EPLF, both countries were in wars with each other on several occasions.  Both have encountered significant human and material loses due to these wars.  Experts link the wars primarily to economic and/or simply “egoistic” reasons on the part of the leaderships.  The issue of the border town of Badem has currently become a major excuse for finger pointing at each other and ranting.  Although the UN Boundary Commission has decided in favor of Eritrea regarding Badem, TPLF has not been willing to accept the decision for political expediency.  This action of TPLF has turned Shabia’s Issays furious, forcing him to consider taking revenge against the TPLF regime.  Coinciding with the interests of some Ethiopian opposition groups against TPLF, political parties like G7 have started working with Shabia to fight TPLF, with the ultimate goal of removing it from power.  However, many well-intentioned Ethiopians have questioned the merits and possible outcomes of such a collaborative effort between the anti-Ethiopia organization, Shabia, and G7, and I am one of those Ethiopians.  I believe that it is not only impossible to bring about positive changes in Ethiopia by working with Shabia, but the country will also be burdened with additional problems that will it harder to overcome.

Shabia has accepted that the exploitation of Ethiopia is key to the survival and development of Eritrea.  Since Eritrea is a much smaller country, the organization believes Ethiopia should remain weak in order to be malleable for manipulation and exploitation.  To accomplish this objective, Shabia has been serving as a shelter and a source of resources for different liberation fronts that are bent to destroy Ethiopia.  These libration fronts include OLF and ONLF.  In the face of this ongoing anti-Ethiopia effort, how come one expects to get genuine support from Shabia that can help the Ethiopian people in the long run?  Is this the intended goal of G7 and its other Ethiopian allies?

There are reports that Shabia is engaged in the day-to-day control of the activities of patriotic Ethiopian fighters stationed in Eritrea to fight the TPLF regime with arms.  This action of Shabia is partly reflected by the lack of expected progress in the fight against TPLF and the disappearances of some key leaders of the fighters.  In addition, previously Shabia was involved in the dismantling of once the strongest Ethiopian opposition party, Kinejit, by creating a fake organization known as AFD.

Available evidence further indicates that high-positioned Eritreans working in Ethiopia (including military personnel) are in the service of Eritrea at the expense Ethiopia.  This loyalty towards Eritrea is in contrast to the widely claimed antagonistic attitude of the TPLF regime agonist the nation.  In fact, many believe that the seemingly hostile attitude of TPLF towards Eritrea is a made-up lie created by the very TPLF only for public consumption, primarily by nationalist Tigre.

If Shabia has a concern about the well-being of Ethiopia and its people, it should also be expected to be concerned, at least equally, about its own people, the Eritreans.  It has been well witnessed by the entire world that Shabia is one of the most repressive and brutal regimes in the world, and Eritreans, under shabia, are among the most suffering people.  How do we expect this cruel organization to be helpful for Ethiopians?  Clearly, it is wrong and immoral to collaborate with such a terrorist organization for any purpose.  With this relationship, there is also a possibility of “guilty by association” with likelihood of unpleasant consequences.

With all the dishonesty, crimes and immorality associated with Shabia and the TPLF, what can be expected to happen next concerning Ethiopians who are working with Shabia against the TPLF regime?  A likely long-term scenario could be that after Shabia becomes comfortable of controlling as many opposition Ethiopians as possible, a fake negotiation will be instituted between the two regimes to exchange anti-TPLF Ethiopians from Eritrea for something Shabia wants from TPLF, possibly the abdication of Badem.  In this way, all Ethiopians in Eritrea opposing TPLF will be transferred to Ethiopia and forced to fall in the hands of TPLF.  It is not rocket science to predict what will happen to them and to the struggle, following this.  On the other hand, it will be a win-win situation for the two criminal organizations, once again benefiting big time from our weakness.

What can possibly be done to prevent this gloomy possibility? Obviously, the first action is to stop collaborating with the confirmed historical enemy of Ethiopia, Shabia, as it has not made a change of mind in its destructive policy against Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people, irrespective of its status of power and influence.  Instead, these Ethiopian opposition groups should strive to create a stronger bond with other like-minded Ethiopians as much as possible to work together against the TPLF regime and for the well being the Ethiopian people.  Their efforts should include actions in all fronts including winning new friends and supports from reliable sources outside Ethiopia and mobilizing and actively supporting the Ethiopian people for a better fight against their home-grown enemy.   There are many examples of success stories in many places based on these approaches of struggle against tyranny and exploitation.  What is needed in Ethiopia’s case is also to show the willingness and determination to do it.  There is no need to go far away in search of a very risky adventure.